Generally, I consider myself a sucker for the history and mystique of sports. I appreciate long-stand rivalries, enjoy watching two all-time greats go at each other, and can’t get enough of watching guys break records and rewrite history with my own eyes. With Tom Brady long gone from New England and Aaron Rodgers playing with a supporting cast full of guys that would be better suited playing in the second half of the third preseason game, the aura that a Patriots – Packers matchup packed four or five years ago is gone.
They will be playing at Lambeau Field, though, which is the oldest stadium in the NFL. Yes, I know Soldier Field is technically older, but the Bears redid the stadium in the early 2000s and, although the new stadium technically occupies the same piece of land as the old one, it’s brand new for all intents and purposes. So while we’ll be subjected to watching Brian Hoyer throw dirt balls to DeVante Parker, Nelson Aghalor, and potentially Jacoby Myers, and Aaron Rodgers throw perfectly placed passes to the corpses of Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins, at least the backdrop of Lambeau Field will provide a cool, historic setting for this Shakspearian tragedy.
The Patriots enter this game limping, er, being carried off the field, after a bad loss to the Ravens last week. At 1-2 and playing with their backup quarterback for at least a few weeks, any optimism Patriots fans had entering the season is all but gone now. The proverbial road does get easier after this week’s matchup in Green Bay, but when the Patriots look in the mirror these days, they see a team that others identify as “easy” and consider games against them to be very winable, so I’m not sure how much solace one can take from the easy schedule moving forward.
The Packers are still finding their footing as much as a team that was the 1 seed in the NFC last year and has the the 2X defending MVP playing quarterback can be “finding themselves.” Rodgers’ favorite target, Davante Adams, is in Las Vegas, and his departure has been glaring for three weeks. Green Bay is coming off a win in 14-12 win in Tampa against Brady and the Bucs, but Tampa Bay played that game with their hands tied behind their back missing their top 3 receivers. Not exactly a statement win for the Packers.
Let’s get into the matchups.
Patriots Offense vs Packers Defense: I’m not really sure where to start this offensive breakdown because I have no idea what to expect from Brian Hoyer. He looked so bad last time we saw him play meaningful snaps at Arrowhead in 2020 that even a great improvement on that performance is still woefully short of competent quarterback play. That said, he was inheriting an offense that was set up for Cam Newton and had to make a mid-week shift to a more traditional style before the game in Kansas City. This time around Hoyer will step into the same offense the team was running with Mac, an offense that’s more suited for him. The Patriots offense enters the game 24th in points scored (which is 2 spots higher than the Green Bay offense) while the Packers defense enters the contest 6th in the league in points allowed. I think you can see where we’re going with this. If for a second, we can imagine a healthy Mac Jones playing in this game, the Patriots offense would still be at a sizeable disadvantage against what looks like an elite Packers defense. Remove Mac and add in Hoyer, and the Patriots could have trouble scoring double-digit points against a defense that will undoubtedly pin their ears back and be in Hoyer’s face all game.
Packers Offense vs Patriots Defense: This version of the Packers offense is not what we’re used to seeing from Green Bay. Losing Davante Adams this offseason has turned out to be a much bigger problem than they had anticipated with Romeo Doubs leading the 27th-ranked offense in targets with 16. They are still a formidable ground team averaging 127 rushing yards a game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon basically splitting carries thus far. The Patriots are an above-average defense, coming into this game ranked 10th in the NFL in yards per game, 8th in passing yards allowed, and 20th in rushing yards allowed. With the Packers strength thus far being their 9th-ranked rushing attack and the Patriots weakness being their run defense, I’d expect a heavy dose of Dillon and Jones this week.
Prediction: I just don’t see a way the Patriots can hang with Green Bay playing with Bryan Hoyer under center. He may be a perfectly fine game manager, but can he make the handful of throws necessary to not just “hang around” but actually win? I doubt it. I foresee a lot of 3-and-outs coming which means the defense will spend a lot of time on the field which generally means a tired defense that breaks down in the 4th quarter. The Patriots are getting 9.5 points, which seems like a lot given how the Packers have looked this year, but I have to think Brian Hoyer is worth at least 5 of those points, and with the three the home team gets, you’re looking at a 1.5 point spread if Mac was playing and this was a neutral site game, which seems about right.
I’m going with the Packers in this one. Emotionally, if the Patriots get down early, I think they’ll fold like a cheap tent knowing they have very little chance of mounting a comeback. I think the Packers win by 2 touchdowns in a game in which nobody reaches 30 points. Pick: Packers 24-10.