At Just 27 years old, have we seen the best of Rafael Devers?
I will never understand why the Red Sox decided that Rafael Devers was the guy to hand a $313M contract to instead of Mookie Betts, but that’s a moot point as we gear up for the 2024 season, so instead of rehashing the decision to let Mookie and Bogaerts walk, I want to take a look at Devers and discuss whether we’ve already seen the best of the 27-year old slugger.
Without a doubt, Devers’ best season as a pro came in 2021, at age 24, during which he hit 38 home runs, drove in 113 runs, stroked 38 doubles, and slashed .279/.352/.538, while finishing 11th in MVP voting. Great numbers for anyone, but given his age, it seemed like the Red Sox third basemen was on the fast track to superstardom. In the two seasons since Devers has continued to put up well above-average numbers but has not been able to match his breakout 2021 season. Let’s take a look at a few reasons why.
Supporting Cast
For the first 5 years of Devers’ career, he was a supporting piece in a strong lineup that boasted Mookie for 2 years, and JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts for all 5. On opening day in 2021, Devers hit 5th, behind JD and Xander, meaning he came up with more men on base, saw more pitches to hit, and carried less of the offensive burden. I’m not suggesting that anyone could have had the season he did hitting 5th in that lineup, but many things were working in his favor. Conversely, on opening day in 2023, Devers hit second behind Alex Verdugo (gross) and just ahead of 38-year-old Justin Turner and international rookie Masataka Yoshida. I don’t think we need Bill James to explain to us how different those two lineups are. Moreover, the rest of the Red Sox lineup in 2023 featured the likes of Reese McGuire and Christian Arroyo. Not exactly the ’29 Yankees, and not a lineup that provided much protection for the 26-year-old slugger. You can’t blame Devers for the team around him, but his lack of protection has stunted his growth.
Defense
Defensive metrics have their place in the game, I guess, but there’s no point in looking into Raffy’s numbers. The man is a butcher at third. At 23, he was young. At 24, he was getting better, and at 25, there was talk that he was finally an average third baseman. Last year, though, in the first year of his huge deal, he was objectively awful defensively. He was booting everything hit his way, and when he did catch it, all of New England held their breath when he threw it across the diamond. When the Red Sox signed Devers to his 11-year extension, they knew he wouldn’t play the hot corner for the entire length of the deal, but I have to imagine they had him penciled in at third through his age 30 season, at the very least. With the way he played last year, I’m not sure the Red Sox can throw him out there 150 times with a straight face, and that’s a very real problem. Let me explain.
The obvious move for any (generally aging) slugger struggling defensively at a high-leverage position is to move them to first base. Except the Red Sox already have a first baseman in Triston Casas, who was arguably their second-best hitter last year, especially after the All-Star Break. He’s just 24 years old and is under team control for 5 more seasons. It’s hard to imagine a budget-conscious ownership shipping Casas out of town to open up first base for Devers. What about DH you say? Also unlikely. If the Red Sox were legit contenders for a World Series, I could see John Henry and Co. biting the proverbial bullet and paying a DH $30M/yr, but with the Sox amid a rebuild, I just can’t see it. Lastly, with the departure of JD Martinez last offseason, the Sox have moved away from a traditional, full-time, DH. Last year Justin Turner was their primary DH, but he also saw time at first, second, and third base, defensively while Alex Cora used the DH slot to keep “key” bats in the lineup while giving them a day off their feet. With first base occupied and the DH slot a rotating seat, it sure seems like Devers will be at third for the foreseeable future despite his obvious shortcomings.
Give a Fuck Factor
This one is a bit more subjective, but it sure seems like Devers doesn’t really give a fuck. I know not everybody has, or shows, a Tom Brady-level of intensity, but Devers doesn’t seem to care, at all. Sure, when the Sox were winning (and he was in a supporting role) he was all smiles, but that joy/passion is totally gone. When he makes an error, he shrugs. When he strikes out in a key situation, he walks back to the dugout like he’s walking home from the goddamn bus stop. Not the best look for the best player on your team.
Oh yeah. he’s also fat. He is not quite as fat as Pablo Sandoval, but for a highly paid athlete in his physical prime, he’s fat, and It’s hard to imagine that changing.
So what does this all mean?
Rafael Devers is far and away the best player on the Boston Red Sox. He is a bonafide middle-of-the-order bat with power to all fields who can hit for average and doesn’t strike out like most sluggers do today, but he’s not the superstar that many, including myself, thought he was going to be a few years ago. At just 27 years old he doesn’t project to be a long-term fit at third base, and without the addition of multiple elite bat to the Boston lineup, and given his mental makeup, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever put up numbers like he did in 2021.
