NYG @ SF -10: Big spread right out of the gate. The 49eres are what we all thought they were. A dominant defense and an above-average, mistake-free offense that can make the big play when needed, however infrequently that is. This team will be in the NFCCG and is really starting to feel like the Patriots in the 20-teens in that their season doesn’t begin until the Divisional round of the playoffs. The Giants woke the FUCK up in the second half last week against…the Cardinals…but also lost their best player for a few weeks in Saquan Barkley. I’d never bet a dollar on a TNF game with a 10-point spread, but I’ll take the 49ers to cover given either the cross-country flight for the Giants on 3 days of rest OR the fact that they have been out west for a week at this point if they stayed on the left coast after the game in Glendale last Sunday. Pick: 49ers
LAC @ MIN pk: Ah, a pick ’em. Two teams that simply do not have the “it” factor AT ALL. Chargers are putting up points but couldn’t keep my 14-month-old daughter out of the end zone. Last year the Vikings won every close game they played and had every bounce go their way. This year, not so much. They are 0-2 and look a lot more like a 7-10 team than the 13-4 squad they were last year. I know NFL games can end in a tie, and if there was ever a game to predict a tie, it’d be this one. But I can’t get myself to go there. I’ll take the Chargers to win this game in a game that someone almost has to win. Pick: Chargers
BUF @ WSH +6.5: Bills got right last week in a big way against an average Raiders team while the Commanders squeaked out a win in Denver against that ticking time bomb of an operation. Buffalo stays on track and wins by 2 TDs, but don’t sleep on the Commanders this year. Howell looks like a legit NFL starter, and they do sit at 2-0. Say what you want about their competition (Cardinals & Broncos) thus far, but they’ve shown an ability to win close games, and last year’s Vikings showed how important that is. Buffalo is in a different stratosphere, though, and wins relatively easily here. Pick: Bills
NO @ GB -2: I like what I see from Jordan Love. He has big shoes to fill in Green Bay, and nobody’s saying he’s the next 4 or 12, but he has looked like an above-average NFL QB through 2 games. Speaking of above-average NFL QBs, Derek Carr is firmly outside that bunch. The Saints are 2-0, but the defense deserves all the credit while the Offense has been lackluster. I still cannot figure out how, after 9 years in the NFL, any team thought Carr was worth $150M. Truly baffling. Green Bay wins by a TD here in their home opener. Pick: Packers
ATL @ DET -3.5: Atlanta is another surprise 2-0 team with home wins over the Panthers and Packers. Their offense is seemingly loaded with Olave, Patterson, Pitts, and the rookie RB Robinson, but the guy pulling the trigger, Desmond Ridder, is a massive question mark. Detroit surged in the second half last year and carried their late-season momentum in 2022 into week 1 this year upsetting the Chiefs at home on opening night. The Falcons might be building something down there in Atlanta, but the Lions are a few years ahead of them and are officially in “win now” mode with Goff at the helm. Lions rebound from their OT loss to Seattle last week and put it on the Falcons. Pick: Lions
TEN @ CLE -3: The 2023 version of Deshaun Watson looks like an actor who was hired to play the old Deshaun Watson in a movie. He looks the same until the ball is snapped, then he seemingly forgets how to play football. The man has been lost this year. But so has Ryan Tannehill. He parlayed a hot finish and a trip to the AFCCG in 2019 into a massive payday in Tennesee and hasn’t done much since. The Titans drafted a QB in the 3rd round last year (Malik Willis) and at the top of the 2nd round this year (Will Levis), so the writing is on the wall at Nissan Stadium. Two bad teams will play sloppy, turnover-filled, football and the final score will be like 20-16 or some shit like that. Give me Browns to cover at home in a game I’d NEVER bet on in real life. Pick: Browns
HOU @ JAX -9.5: CJ Stroud has looked better than I expected through 2 games. The Texans are awful and would be picking in the top 5 again this year if they hadn’t traded their ’24 1st rounder away in the Will Anderson draft-day trade. The Jags won a playoff game last year and took care of the Colts in week 1 before losing at home to Mahomes & Co. last week. I really don’t like these big spreads and would stay away from this in real life, but I’ll pick the Texans to lose but cover…barely. Pick: Texans
NE @ NYJ +3: The Patriots have to win this one, right? They have owned Zac Wilson, and despite their dominant defense, Gang Green cannot move the ball at all. I’ll take the Patriots to cover in a selection that’s based on both logic (I think) and emotion. Please, God. Pick: Patriots
DEN @ MIA -6.5: Miami by a million. Russ stinks, Sean Payton is about to kill him, and Miami is a finely-tuned offensive machine until Tua gets hurt. This spread would have to be approaching 20 for me to even consider picking that shit show in Denver. Pick: Dolphins
IND @ BAL -8: Anthony Richardson (most likely) won’t play due to the concussion he suffered last week. The Raven’s offense has not been great so far, but they’re 2-0 and still have a very dangerous man at QB. I don’t like the 8-point spread, but I really don’t like a bad Indy team without their best player. Pick: Ravens
CAR @ SEA -5.5: It’s going to be a long year for Bryce Young (already on the injury report) and the Panthers. The Seahawks are not world-beaters, but they are a good, playoff-caliber, team that will be in it all year long. With the game being in Seattle, I’m surprised the spread is not double digits. Pick: Seattle
DAL @ ARI +12: I can’t do it. Every fiber of my body says to pick Dallas to cover after two dominant wins over the NY teams. But I just can’t. 12 points is a lot of points, and it’s not like the Cardinals have just rolled over in their first 2 games despite losing both. Give me the Josh Dobbs-led Cardinals to cover! Pick: Cardinals
CHI @ KC -12.5: This could get reallllly ugly. The Bears just lost their DC, their starting QB blamed the coaches for his bad play, and their roster is just not good. Chiefs are going to beat the Bears to a pulp. So much so that I don’t think Mahomes will play in the 4th quarter. Shit, this is LITERALLY the reigning Super Bowl Champs against the team that had the first pick in the draft last year. I don’t like these big spreads, but I can’t pick da Bears against this Chiefs team that has Kelce and Jones back in the lineup. Pick: Chiefs
PIT @ LVR -2.5: Did the Steelers hire Matt Patricia to run their offense this offseason? Good grief is that operation awful. I’m not a big believer in the Raiders, but I think Jimmy G is way better than Kenny Pickett and, with the game being played in Vegas, that’s enough for the Raiders to win by at least a FG. Hell, the Steelers scored 26 points against the Browns last week and 14 came on defensive scores. Pick: Raiders
PHI @ TB +5: The Baker Mayfield redemption tour hits a major speed bump as the Eagles continue to find their form and slap the shit out of a Bucs team that has no business being 2-0. Pick: Eagles
LAR @ CIN -2: It sure looks like Burrow will be sitting this one out. The Bengals are 0-2 WITH him this year and have not looked like themselves at really any point through 2 weeks. Take him off the field and I just can’t see them beating a surprise Rams team that went toe to toe with SF last week after routing the Seahawks in week 1. Give me the Rams, comfortably. Pick: Rams
