DET @ KC -5: Detroit was the “Hard Knocks Sweetheart” last summer. Dan Campbell was the loveable meathead who had total buy-in from his team, and, as is always the case with the team featured on Hard Knocks, the Lions were a trendy sleeper pick in 2022. They proceeded to start 1-6 with their lone win coming against an objectively awful Commanders team. Ultimately, they did turn it all around and finished 9-8, just missing out on the playoffs. Why do I bring all of this up you ask? Because I think the Lions are a good team that I expect to win the division, but they came out FLAT for the first 2 months of the season last year, and you simply can’t do that against the Kansas City Machine.
I fully expect the Chiefs to pick up where they left off last year and score 30+ points on a Lions defense that let up the 4th most points and the most yards in the NFL last year. The Chiefs win a game that’s not particularly close in the second half. Pick: Chiefs
HOU @ BAL -10: Lamar is healthy (for now, lol) and the Ravens have a great defense. Conversely, the Texans have a putrid offensive line that is going to get their rookie QB (who I don’t think is going to be very good regardless of line play) killed. I hate big spreads like this, but I just can’t see the Texans hanging with a healthy Ravens team. Pick: Ravens
CAR @ ATL -3.5: Is Bryce Young any good? I have no idea. He, much like Mac Jones, played with significantly better receivers at Alabama than he does now in the NFL. The Panthers showed some fight last year and won 7 games despite downright awful quarterback play from *checks notes* Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and Jacob Eason, so I’d assume Bryce Young is an upgrade over that group.
The Falcons are rolling with Desmond Ridder who was installed as the starter for the last 4 games last year and was able to go through the offseason, mini camps, and training camp as the starter. Ridder gets to throw the ball to a healthy Kyle Pitts and hand it off to rookie RB Bijan Robinson, so weapons should not be a problem in Atlanta.
I’m taking the Falcons to cover due to the continuity they have, the game being at home, and Bryce Young playing in his first real NFL game. Pick: Falcons
CIN @ CLE +2.5: Cincy is one of the 5 or 6 teams that are in “Super Bowl or Bust” mode this year. The Browns are in “Please God Let Deshaun Watson Be Good After We Traded So Many Picks And Paid Him $250M” mode. Joe Burrow IS good. Deshaun Watson WAS good. This spread would have to be 10+ points for me to even consider the Browns. Pick: Bengals
SF @ PIT +2.5: The 49ers are the only team in the NFL, it seems, who don’t give a fuck who’s under center for them. They moved off Jimmy G who led them to a Super Bowl appearance, a second NFCCG appearance, and was 7-3 for them last year in a season where they, again, lost in the NFCCG. They traded a king’s ransom to draft Trey Lance in 2021, figured out he was trash, and promptly shipped him to Dallas this summer for a 4th rounder next year. Shanahan & Co. are rolling with 2022 MR. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, who is coming off a major elbow injury, and Sam Darnold holding the clipboard on the sidelines. What does all of this mean? Absolutely nothing. That roster is loaded. Debo, Kittle, and McCaffree are three top-tier playmakers that can make an average QB shine, and that defense is, arguably, the best in the NFL.
The Steelers barely missed out on the playoffs last year, and all reports from their camp say that 2nd year QB Kenny Pickett looks like the real deal. They are well-coached, have a solid roster, and a top-tier defense led by TJ Watt.
I’m taking the Steelers to both cover and win. Nick Bosa is still holding out, The 49ers have to travel east for a 1:00 PM kick, and the Steelers need this game more than the 49ers for the simple fact that San Fran knows they’ll be in the hunt come December while the jury is still out on the Steelers. Pick: Steelers
EDIT: Bosa just signed a monster deal and will play in week 1. But I’m not changing my pick. He’s got 3 days to get into game shape. Not ideal.
ARI @ WSH -7: I have no choice but to tip my hat to the Cardinals. They are openly tanking this year. They cut Colt McCoy in favor of…Josh Dobbs, released DeAndre Hopkins and made a number of additional moves that made them objectively worse with no long-term upside. This team may not win a game all year which is just the way they want it.
The Commanders scream 7-10 to me. They play in a tough division and lack any true star on either side of the ball, but when you’re playing the Cardinals, that’s plenty of firepower to cover the 7-point spread. Pick: Commanders
TB @ MIN -6: The Vikings went 13-4 last year and had a NEGATIVE point differential. Absolutely bananas statistic. They have the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson, a good-but-not-great QB in Kohl’s Cash Kirk, and a dogshit defense.
The Buccaneers went from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at QB and are staring down the barrel of NFL mediocrity. Evans and Godwin are two elite receivers, and their defense is plenty good to keep them in most games, but even the GOAT couldn’t will this team to a winning season last year so my expectations for this Mayfield-led offense are low.
I’d stay the fuck away from this game if I was betting real money, but we pick every game on this blog, so I’ll cautiously take the Vikings, at home to cover but this game could be a complete mess. Pick: Vikings
JAX @ IND +5: Jags are on a mission, and the Colts are starting Anthony Richardson at QB. AR may turn into an elite quarterback in this league, but he’s so raw and, without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, is surrounded by a bunch of nothing on offense. This spread would have to be 14+ for me not to take the Jaguars. Pick: Jaguars
TEN @ NO -3: I still cannot believe that Derek Carr finessed the Saints for $150M this offseason. He’s so average it hurts. The Titans are still rolling with Ryan Tannehill, but he’s keeping the seat warm for Will Levis, who I fully expect will start multiple games this season. Alvin Kamara is suspended for this game, and even though Derrick Henry is ancient in running back years, it’s week 1 so I’d assume he’ll get 20+ carries and get into the endzone at least once. Give me the Titans in a low-scoring game that features AT LEAST one Derek Carr interception. Pick: Titans
LV @ DEN -3.5: It sure seems like Josh McDaniels is losing (or has lost) control of that operation. They were underwhelming last year and didn’t do much at all to improve this offseason. In fact, you could argue that trading Darren Waller makes them a worse offense (Derek Carr and Jimmy G are the same thing) which is not good when you play the Chargers and Chiefs twice every year.
Denver was a disaster last year, but very smartly brought in a fucking general in Sean Payton to coach this squad. Russell Wilson almost has to be better than last year based on the monumental upgrade in coaching he received this offseason.
I’ll take the Broncos to cover, but, much like the Vikings game, this is not a very confident pick. Pick: Broncos
MIA @ LAC -3: Two fringe playoff teams who are, ostensibly, running it back with the same squads they had last year. The Chargers are getting the 3 points that the home team gets meaning Vegas thinks these teams are very even. I’ve talked about my lack of confidence in Justin Herbert multiple times here, and he did absolutely nothing to ease that angst with his fucking pants-shitting against the Jaguars in the 2nd half of their Wild Card game last January. Tua has the gusto but is one hit away from Antonio Brown-level CTE and his career being over. But it’s week 1 and he’s healthy. I’ll take the Dolphins to cover in a close game that sees Tua make the “it” play that Herbert can’t. Pick: Dolphins
LAR @ SEA -5.5: Man, that Super Bowl win for the Rams feels like a lifetime ago. Stafford is back, but Kupp is hobbled and they shipped out a lot of pieces this offseason in what can only be classified as a complete teardown. They went for it and won, which is great, but they have executed a masterclass in how to fuck up a championship-caliber team in the 20 months since hosting the Lombardi. They gave Stafford, an aging QB a big new deal, and resigned Aaron Donald to a monster contract extension to keep him from retiring. The Super Bowl endorphins let them give out too much money to aging veterans. They were in cap jail and had to cut/trade from their core.
The Seahawks made the playoffs last year and only got better this offseason. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett welcome 1st-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the WR room. Geno is not a top 10 QB but he protects the ball and brings enough dynamic playmaking to keep the Seahawks in the playoff race all year. Seattle rolls the Rams and cover easily. Pick: Seahawks
PHI @ NE +4: I’ll do a full write-up on this later, but I’m a fucking homer and think the new-look Pat’s offense will do enough to cover here. Pick: Patriots
GB @ CHI -1: 2023 is a make-or-break year for Justin Fields and the Bears front office. They had the first pick in April’s draft but traded it away for DJ Moore and multiple future 1st rounders while snagging a top-tier OT at #10. If the Bears finish 3-14 this year, Fields, the whole coaching staff, and the front office are going to be relieved of their duty the day after the season ends and someone else will be making those selections they traded for. That was a huge gamble for everyone involved.
The Packers, on the other hand, finally turned the page and moved on from Aaron Rodgers and have entered the Jordan Love era. I have a lot more confidence in the whole operation in Green Bay than the Chicago setup, so I’ll take the Packers to cover and win. Pick: Packers
DAL @ NYG +3.5: My oh my did the Giants overachieve last year. They stayed healthy, got a career year from Daniel Jones, and beat the bag out of the 13-4 Vikings in the Wild Card round. I’m a big Daboll fan, but, much like the Vikings, they are due for a major regression this year in this humble blogger’s opinion.
Dallas is one of those “Super Bowl or Bust” teams that is running it back with the same team that went to the Divisional round last year. I personally don’t think they are an elite team for 2 reasons. First, Mike McCarthy is a fucking clown. 10 years with Aaron Rodgers in a wide-open NFC, and was only able to get to 1 Super Bowl, and two, Dak is not very good. Too many turnovers and not enough “gusto.”
I think the Giants will end up right around .500, but will start the season 0-1 against a Cowboys team that is in a pivotal year for everyone involved, including Jerruh. Pick: Cowboys
BUF @ NYJ +2.5: This should be the game of the week. The storylines are seemingly limitless. Aaron Rodgers trying to pull a Brady/Manning and snag another ring as the missing piece on another team late in his career. The Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs drama in Buffalo, a team that seems to have plateaued (at least in the playoffs). Dalvin Cook taking handoffs from longtime nemesis Aaron Rodgers in a crowded Jets backfield. So many good storylines.
And then there’s the game. Both teams are in the “Super Bowl or Bust” mindset, and both teams, ipso facto, get a true measuring stick game in week 1, under the lights on national TV.
Buffalo is running it back with pretty much the same squad they had last year, much like the Cowboys, believing fully that they have a roster capable of winning a Super Bowl if a few bounces go their way this year. Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, and if he can stay healthy (he takes way too many hits, but that’s a story for another day) and limit his turnovers, can challenge for the title of “Second Best QB in the NFL Behind Mahomes.” The offense won’t shouldn’t be a problem for this team. Their defense is, in a word, fine. They were the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL last year but benefited greatly from an easy schedule and beat up on some bad teams like the Patriots, Jets, Bears, and Titans. When the playoffs rolled around, the “2nd ranked defense in the NFL” gave up 31 points to Skylar Moore, a third-string QB for the Miami Dolphins, IN BUFFALO Wild Card Weekend before getting totally dominated by Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the Divisional round. The stats say 2nd ranked, Eyeball test says…fine.
The Jets are the diametric opposite in almost every way. They had a fine young core on offense last year but had the MILF Hunter sabotaging them at every turn. Their defense ranked 4th in the NFL and probably should have been higher if said MILF Hunter’s turnovers didn’t set up opponent offenses with great field position repeatedly. Rodgers seems to have come as advertised from all reports and the limited access Hard Knocks was granted. His chemistry with Garret Wilson looks undeniable, and he brought in his entourage (Cobb, Hackett (OC), and Lazard) with him to Fordham Park which helps ease the transition. In fact, seeing Rodgers having fun playing football again this summer must be hard for Green Bay fans to see after he moped around their facility for the last two years (for valid reasons).
I’m in on the Jets this year. I think their roster is significantly better than the one Brady inherited in Tampa Bay in 2020, and that worked out nicely for everyone who doesn’t root for the Patriots. I’m taking the Jets to not only cover but to win, and win easily. The operation in Buffalo feels a little broken. I’m having trouble putting my finger on why, but it just feels off, big picture, while the Jets will be looking to start hot amid a ROUGH schedule out of the gate (BUF, @ DAL, NE, KC, @DEN, PHI). Pick: Jets
