Last week featured 6 football games, and, to my complete surprise, 5 of the 6 were great games with the ass-whoopin’ the Cowboys laid on the Bucs the lone laugher.
Historically, this round, the Divisional Round, features some of the best games of the season with all teams having either secured a bye or won a playoff game last week. Also, traditionally, there have not been very many big spreads in these games, but in the most 2022 (ahem 2023) way possible, we have two 7+ point spreads this weekend. Let’s get into it.
JAX @ KC -9: The Chiefs are so fucking good. They lost their best pass catcher this offseason in Tyreek Hill and have had a bit of a revolving door at running back, but none of that matters. They have a great head coach in Big Red, an elite, creative offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy, and the best QB in all the land in Patrick Mahomes. They cruised through the regular season to the tune of 14-3, only dropping games to the Colts (the fuq was that?), Bills, and Bengals. Unfortunately for KC, they will have to avenge one of their three losses this year next week should they survive the Jags.
Then there’s the Jaguars. That game last week against the Chargers was unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Trever Lawrence and the Jaguars offense could not get out of their own way in the first half, turning the ball over 5 times and repeatedly handing the Chargers a short field. Fortunately for Jacksonville, the Chargers settled for a few too many field goals. The Jags took momentum with a TD late in the second quarter, then came out in the second half and completed the third-largest comeback in NFL postseason history.
What does all of this mean on Saturday? Fuck if I know. I think the Chiefs will win this game, but they failed their two tests this year against elite teams, and the way the Jags played down the stretch this season, and how they played in the second half last week, they are closer to an elite team than this humble blogger ever thought they’d be this season. I’ll take the Jags to cover and make this a very interesting and uncomfortable game for KC. I know it’s cliche, but there;’s something to be said for the “nothing to lose” mentality the Jags have and the “everything to lose” mentality the Chiefs are playing with. Pick: Jaguars
NYG @ PHI -7.5: Jaylen Hurts hasn’t played in about a month, and the Eagles lost two of their last three games before squeaking out a win against a Giants team in week 18 that rested most of their key players. When Hurts is playing well, the Philly offense is so hard to stop. AJ Brown and Devante Smith are two elite receivers, and the Philly ground game is no joke, either. Their defense is big and daunting, causes turnovers, and gets to the QB. The Philadelphia Eagles are a legit #1 seed and have their sights set on the Super Bowl.
The Giants went to the 13-4 Vikings last week and came away with a win that saw Daniel Jones play better than he has at any point during his Giants tenure. The million-dollar question is whether he can do that again this week against an Eagles defense that’s miles better than the Vikings defense he faced last week.
I’ll take the Eagles to cover here, but I don’t think this will be anything approaching a blowout. The Giants will make it a game for a bit more than 3 quarters, but the playmaking the Eagles possess on both sides of the ball will make a few key plays in the 4th and the Eagles will win by 2 scores. Pick: Eagles
CIN @ BUF -5.5: Three weeks later, we’ll finally get to see this game.
The Bills look good, but there seems to be something missing. It took TWO kickoffs being returned for TDs to beat the Patriots (who stink) in week 18 and they barely squeaked by the warm-weather Dolphins and their third-string QB last week. Josh Allen, recently, has been equal parts spectacular plays and turnovers. With all of the talent Buffalo has on that roster, they should be blowing teams out routinely, but instead are earning hard-fought wins over average teams.
The Bengals, in a word, are PISSED. They (rightfully) think this game should be taking place in Cincinnati which will only serve as even more motivation for the Bengals. This team has unfinished business, and after getting so close to winning it all last year, coupled with the way their week 17 matchup with the Bills went, I’m fairly confident Joe Burrow is about to hang 45 on the Bills.
Not only do I think the Bengals will cover, I think they will win outright, comfortably. I can’t get over Josh Allen’s turnovers, and that dude Joe Burrow is the real deal. Pick: Bengals
DAL @ SF -3.5: The Cowboys team we saw on Monday Night against the Bucs is borderline unbeatable. When Dak is making good decisions and Mike McCarthy doesn’t have to make a single call under even an ounce of pressure, the Cowboys are a wagon. But I’m not sure they can play a game like that against the 49ers defense.
The 49ers, however, are starting a rookie 7th-round pick at QB, and he’ll be facing a legit team for the first time since taking over for Glass Jimmy. If San Francisco can get out to an early lead, force the Cowboys to be 1-dimensional, and let Brock Purdy manage the game, the 49ers will win, but I’m not sure that’ll happen.
I think this game will be super fucking close with multiple 4th quarter lead changes. I’ll take the Brock Purdy balloon to finally burst in this game that sees him make a mistake that leads to a Cowboys win, but, again, this game will be close as fuck. Pick: Cowboys
