There are a bunch of decent games this week after a few down weeks in terms of matchups. Good games, though, often means tough spreads. If I were a real-life gambler, I’d probably sit out most of this week and enjoy the weekend watching games. Lots of cross-conference play, and, by my quick math, only 4 division games this week, including both non-Sunday games. Anyways, let’s pick ’em.
BUF @ NE +3.5: The Bills are second in the league in points and yards, sitting behind only the Super Bowl LVII champion Chiefs. The Patriots have had trouble scoring points this year, as a whole, when playing teams that don’t play in Cleveland or Detroit. Buffalo just barely squeaked by a Lions team that the Patriots shut out 29-0 earlier this year, while New England lost by a TD to the same Vikings team that beat the Bills in OT a few weeks ago. Look, I’m a Patriots fan, but even I can’t pick them to win here. These two teams played the day after Christmas last year and again three weeks later in the Wild Card round and Buffalo did not punt once in either game. I think the Patriots will hang in there for the majority of this game, but Buffalo and Josh Allen are just too much. The bills win by a TD and end the game in victory formation after the patriots fail to get a stop on 3rd down to get the ball back. Pick: Bills
TEN @ PHI -5: I’m still not a big believer in Philly. They keep winning, but I just don’t think a run-first QB that had to transfer to Oklahoma from Alabama is capable of authoring one of the best seasons, record-wise, in NFL history. The Eagles defense gave up a season-high 33 points last week to Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, which was a season-high for the Packers. The Titans go as King Henry goes while Tannehill acts as nothing more than a game manager. Both teams have good defenses in terms of points allowed, but the Eagles defense is top-tier in yards while the Titans are middle of the road. I think the Eagles probably win this, but the Titans will keep it close and cover. Wouldn’t touch this with real money, but the pick is Tennessee. Pick: Titans
GB @ CHI +4.5: The Packers stink, but Justin Field’s injury is just a death knell for the Bears. He was their entire offense and now that he’s hurt (even if he plays, he’s hurt), the Bears won’t be able to hang with the Packers. Pick: Packers
JAX @ DET +.5: Ah, the ole half-point-spread-between-two-bad-teams-that-show-flashes-of-competence-against-good-teams game. I’m copywriting that. But before I copywriter that, I’ll take the Lions to cover. Trevor Lawrence was great last week against the Ravens, but he’s been incapable, thus far, of stringing multiple good performances together. The Lions have played some good football over the last month and I think they keep it rolling this week. Pick: Lions
CLE @ HOU +7: I hate Deshaun Watson and I think he’s a despicable human, but he makes Cleveland better than they were with Jacoby Brissette. It’ll probably be a rough first quarter for Deshaun as he gets his feet under him, but the Browns will roll in this. The Texans are awful and the Browns are probably a smidge above average with Watson at the helm. Pick: Browns
NYJ @ MIN -3: Mike White was great last week, but the Vikings are coming off a Thanksgiving win against the Patriots, so they’ve been resting for 10 days and had a week to dissect Mike White’s film. I think Minnesota will win easily here, pulling away at the end. Pick: Vikings
PIT @ ATL +1: Two bad teams. I’ll go with the home team for no real reason other than that I have to pick someone. Pick: Falcons
DEN @ BAL -8.5: lol. Pick: Ravens
WSH @ NYG +2.5: Giants bubble has burst while the Commanders are feeling great. The trend continues and the questions about Daniel Jones reach a fever pitch and will ultimately result in either a short-money, one-year deal for Jones after the season or a new QB for the Giants next year. Pick: Commanders
MIA @ SF -4: This will be a great game. The Dolphins offense is rolling and the 49ers defense is the best in the league, hands down. Miami’s defense is pretty good while SF’s offense is hit or miss. I’ll take the 49ers to win, probably, but the Dolphins will cover. Pick: Dolphins
SEA @ LAR +8: Eight points is a lot, especially in a division game, and Seattle couldn’t find a way to win last week against the Raiders. Perfect storm here for the Rams to play the ‘hawks close and maybe win. Pick: Rams
LAC @ LVR +1.5: This is a tough one. Both teams are underachievers, and my distaste for Herbert is well-documented. The Raiders have won 2 in a row and look to be quite resilient as of late. That said, I’ll take the Chargers on the road. I just can’t get with this version of the Raiders. Pick: Chargers
KC @ CIN +2: Chiefs roll. They are stupid good. Pick: Chiefs
IND @ DAL -10.5: Dallas is on a war path. They slipped up against the Packers in the Mike McCarthy bowl but responded with a 40-3 beatdown of the Vikings. We don’t like big spreads on this blog, but I’ll roll with the Cowboys here. Pick: Cowboys
NO @ TB -3.5: Tommy at home on Monday Night. Pick: Buccaneers
