If the Patriots beat the Bears on Monday Night Football, that will be three in a row, and, in the words of legendary baseball manager Lou Brown, “that’s called a winning streak and it has happened before.” Last year the Patriots rattled off 7 in a row after starting the season 2-4, so this team knows they are possible, especially when facing a bad team for the third week in a row.
I’m going to keep this blog short for two reasons. First is because I think the Bears suck out loud and no matter who is playing QB for the Patriots, they should absolutely roll in this game. Second is because it’s Monday and I have way more work to do on Mondays than I do on Fridays when I usually write these blogs. And sure, I could have written this blog on Friday, but I wanted to know who was going to play QB for the Patriots before writing the overview. Speaking of which…
Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense: Who will start at quarterback for the Patriots? As of 1:42 PM, we still don’t know. All week it seemed like Mac was trending to start after being a full participant in practice. Still, there’s been no solid report from any media member that he will for sure start, and Zolak has floated out the idea that, if Mac hasn’t been named a starter yet, it’s probably going to be Zappe tonight. Who knows.
I ultimately don’t think it matters who starts here. The quarterback controversy is absolutely a big story that has received more than its share of media attention, but even an old, washed-up QB like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would win this game comfortably for the Patriots.
The Bears defense is an average unit overall, ranking 15th in yards allowed at 341 per game, but 28th in points allowed at 26.6 per game. I haven’t watched any Bears football outside of their once-a-week appearance on Red Zone and that awful Thursday Night game against the Commanders last week, but I think it’s safe to say that a defense that’s middle of the road in yards allowed but a bottom feeder in points allowed is probably the victim of some backbreaking turnovers given up by their offense. On the year, the Bears have given it away 10 times, which is one less than the Patriots, but the Chicago defense has only forced 6 turnovers of their own which is good for 28th in the league.
By this point in the season, it’s quite clear the Patriots are a run-first team, especially when playing bad teams. With Damien Harris returning from his week off and Rhamondre Stevenson playing the best football of his young career, I’m fairly certain the Patriots will look to establish, and lean on, the run in this one. Moreover, the Bears defense is second to last in the league in rushing yards given up, allowing 163 yards per contest. This is why it doesn’t matter who is playing QB tonight.
Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense: This is a massive mismatch. The Patriots are 7th in the league in points allowed surrendering just 18.8 points per game and 13th in yards allowed at 337. Those numbers honestly seem low to me considering how they’ve played over the last three games, but I’m also choosing to forget the Dolphins and Ravens games. The Bears offense is putrid. They rank 30th in the league in Points (15.5) and yards (293). Both are terrible numbers, but it gets better. Through 6 games, they are averaging just 122.8 passing yards per game, which is good for DEAD LAST in the NFL and a full 29 yards clear of 31st place. The Patriots offense, for comparison, that’s featured a rookie QB for the last three weeks and an ineffective Mac Jones for the first three averages 223.3 which is 17th in the league. Think about that. The Bears quarterback play is so bad that they’re averaging one hundred yards per game less than the Patriots who are a run-first team with glorified game managers playing quarterback.
Judon and the rest of the front 7 will feast tonight. Justin Fields will be running for his life all game, and will undoubtedly throw at least one ball to someone wearing a different uniform than him. The Patriots are 8-point favorites, and although I generally don’t like spreads that high, I would put the farm on the Patriots covering. They just don’t lose these games. I see the Patriots getting out to an early lead and chewing the clock in the second half. Final score: 27-3 Patriots.