A few days ago, news broke that the Red Sox and pitcher Garrett Crochet had agreed to a 6-year, $170M extension that will kick in next season for the 25-year-old lefty. On the surface, the deal makes sense for both sides. Crochet secured generational wealth on an agreement allowing him to hit the free-agent market at 32, potentially setting him up for another big payday. The Red Sox, conversely, lock up one of the best young pitchers in the game to a deal that, in both length and annual value, seems like a bit of a bargain, given some of the free-agent pitching contracts we’ve seen recently.
So what are the pros and cons of this deal for both the team and the player? Let’s take a look.
It’s easy to see why Crochet would be eager to sign his name on the dotted line, given that he was guaranteed $170M the second the ink dried. Sure, he could have bet on himself, played out the final two years of his rookie deal, and hit the open market after the ’26 season free to negotiate with all 30 teams. If he stayed healthy and produced the way he did in the first half of last season over these next two campaigns, bidding for his services would start at $35M+ per season, and, as is the case with almost every free-agent deal, the contract length would surely exceed 6 years. So why settle for $170M/6? It’s the “if’s.” Crochet has already had Tommy John surgery (in ’22) and has only been an effective starter for one half of one season. Crochet and his family must have decided that the guaranteed money today was worth the long-term security, forgoing the opportunity cost of hitting the market in 2 years and potentially landing a $200M+ that simply wouldn’t be there if he blew out his arm again.
The Red Sox found themselves on the other side of the risk curve. John Henry has made it abundantly clear that he doesn’t want to sign pitchers over 30, and if the last 10 years are any barometer of his desire to pay top-of-the-market contracts, he wouldn’t have been very interested in resigning Crochet had he made it to the free-agent market healthy. Breslow and the Red Sox decided that locking up what is still an unproven pitcher to a record-setting deal was well worth the inherent risk of handing out a $170M contract to a pitcher. There’s an obvious risk in any long-term deal, but with Crochet having already undergone Tommy John surgery, the Red Sox must feel comfortable that his elbow is in pristine condition, and any subsequent UCL trouble won’t hit the lefty until after this deal expires and his stuff is undeniably filthy.
So, who won this deal?
I ultimately think the Red Sox won this deal in a proverbial split decision. Short of a top-tier starting quarterback in football, a true ace is the hardest thing to find in all of sports. Sure, every team has a pitcher toe the rubber on opening day, but there are only a handful of true aces, and Crochet has shown that he can be an ace, albeit only for a half season. Still, If Crochet was a free agent this past offseason, I feel confident in saying that he’d have signed a deal for significantly more money and significantly more years than this $170M/6-year deal he just signed. As we all know, when multiple bidders are vying for one’s services, the price rises, and when a young flam-throwing lefty starter hits the market…well, I can’t remember the last time something like that happened. The Red Sox believe their World Series window is wide open, and locking up Crochet for the next 7 seasons will go a long way in keeping the window open.
Now let’s pray his arm holds up and that he is the guy we all saw during the first half of the 2024 season because, if not, Crochet will have swindled $170M from the Red Sox and John Henry may never sign another player to a big contract ever again.
