This blog may sound like the pot calling the kettle black coming from a Patriots fan, but the NFL isn’t fun anymore.
The NFL has prided itself on being a league of “parody” for as long as I can remember. ESPN, the NFL Network, CBS, FOX, NBC, Amazon Prime, and now even Netflix love to flash up graphics all season long showing how many different teams make the playoffs every year and highlighting the one-year turnarounds we frequently see. Just wait. All of the NFL mouthpieces will be talking about how the Commanders went from 4-12 in 2023 to 12-5, and an NFC Championship Game appearance in 2024, implying that every team out there is one offseason away from competing for a championship. And you know what, they’re right. If your favorite team gets lucky and finds a great QB in the draft, hires the right head coach, and signs the perfect free agents who all happen to stay healthy all year, you, too can make a conference championship game…and get blown out.
That’s the problem. There is plenty of parody in the middle of the league but there is very little parody at the top.
In the AFC, the Chiefs have a birthright to appear in the Super Bowl every year, and the only question going into the season is whether they’ll beat the Bills or the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. Teams like the Broncos, Texans, and Steelers had fun seasons in 2024 and made the playoffs but had absolutely zero chance of making it to the Super Bowl, and the whole world knew it. The Texans are a perfect example of this faux parody. In 2023 they took CJ Stroud second overall and hired Demico Ryans as their head coach, parlaying that into a division championship and a home playoff game that they won 45-14 over the Browns. They went to Baltimore for the divisional round the next week and lost 34-10. This year they won their division again, won a wild-card playoff game in blowout fashion 32-12 over the Chargers before heading to Kansas City and losing 23-14. The ceiling for every non-Bills/Ravens/Chiefs team is the Divisional round, and for the Ravens and Bills, the ceiling is the AFC Championship game.
Speaking of the AFC Championship Game, I’m thinking of writing my congressman and asking him to introduce a bill to cancel the game for the foreseeable future. Sure the Bengals went into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs in the 2021 AFC Championship game, but outside of that game that’s looking more and more like an anomaly, the Chiefs don’t lose in the playoffs unless they’re playing against a team that employs Tom Brady (more on him later). With Brady retired and taking in the Super Bowl from the broadcast booth, actually playing the AFC Championship Game seems meaningless. The Chiefs are going to win and there’s nothing you can do about it. The AFC may be a three-dog fight, but in reality, the Chiefs are a rabid pitbull while the Ravens and Bills are pissed off deutschen’s, and the rest of the conference is a bunch of poodle puppies.
With Mahomes being only 29 years old and Josh Allen and Lamar being 28, the top of the AFC doesn’t look like it’ll be changing for a long time.
The NFC has seen slightly more parody with their top two teams, the Eagles and 49ers, both of whom are capable of reaching the Super Bowl…and losing to the Chiefs. The 49ers have played in the NFC Championship Game in 4 of the last 6 years and reached the Super Bowl twice…only to lose to the Chiefs both times. The Eagles have made 2 of the last 3 NFCCGs, winning them both before losing to the Chiefs in the 2022 Super Bowl and currently are 2-point underdogs for the rematch in 2 weeks. The Lions have been knocking at the door but have proven incapable of reaching the Super Bowl, never mind winning it. Sure, the Rams went to the Super Bowl and won it in 2021 against Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the only Super Bowl not to feature the Chiefs since 2018 but they haven’t been back to the conference championship game since. If you add in the previously mentioned Tom Brady-lead Bucs’ victory over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV, the NFC has had 4 teams, the 49ers, Bucs, Rams, and Eagles make it to the Super Bowl while the AFC has only had two, so the NFC is wide open compared to the AFC. Except it’s not. Assuming health for both teams, the Eagles will be back in the NFC Championship Game next year and will probably play the 49ers. The other 5 teams that qualify for the NFC Playoffs have about as much chance of playing in Super Bowl LX as every non-Chiefs team in the AFC.
As a Patriots fan, I was on the right side of a 2-decade run of dominance but it was NEVER anything like what we’re seeing right now. From 2001-2010, the Patriots appeared in 4 Super Bowls, winning 3. During that same timeframe, the Steelers went to 3 and won 2 and the Colts appeared in 2 and won a ring. Sure only 3 teams represented the AFC in the Super Bowl in 9 of those 10 years, but all three went to multiple and won at least one ring. The NFC, during that same era, had a different team appear in the Super Bowl EVERY YEAR. Rams (’01), Buccaneers (’02 – Won), Panthers (’03), Eagles (’04), Seahawks (’05), Bears (’06), Giants (’07 – Won), Cardinals (’08), Saints (’09 – Won), and Packers (’10 – Won). Pure Parody.
From 2011-2018, the second act of the Patriots dynasty, they went to 5 Super Bowls and won three while the Broncos also appeared in two Super Bowls, winning one, and the Ravens won their only Super Bowl appearance in 2012. The NFC, again, was full of parody with 7 teams reaching the Super Bowl over the 8 years with only the Seahawks playing in two.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying that the NFL has had parody in the past during a dynastic run, but that’s not the case now. Even during the Patriots run, they had legit rivals in the AFC who could, and did, beat Brady and Belichick in the playoffs on their way to rings of their own. If you asked a Colts or Steelers fan if they thought their team had a real shot at winning a championship during the 2000s, they’d all emphatically say “hell yeah, fuck Tom Brady.” If you ask a Bills or Ravens fan today if they think their team has a real chance to win the Super Bowl next year, they’d say something along the lines of “only if the refs stop cheating for the Chiefs.” I don’t think I need to explain the difference between those two mindsets
The most frustrating part of this whole situation is that there’s no easy way to fix the current setup. Until somebody not named Tom Brady beats Mahomes in an AFC Championship Game or in the Super Bowl, I’m not convinced anyone can. As mentioned before, Mahomes is only 29 years old meaning he may not be even halfway through his career, and the same can be said for Lamar and Josh Allen in the AFC and Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts in the NFC. So, barring multiple teams from the group of KC, BAL, BUF, PHI, and SF having season-defining injuries, the other 27 teams in the NFL will enter the 2025 regular season with a ceiling of a Conference Championship Game appearance that’ll end with an embracing loss. Until further notice, the NFL has become what the NBA was when the Warriors and Cavs were meeting in the finals every year, except the Cavs actually won a Finals and Mahomes just doesn’t lose to non-Brady QBs.
PS. It’s not talked about enough how Mahomes is 0-2 against Brady in the playoffs, losing a Conference Championship Game AT HOME to Brady in 2018 and the Super Bowl to Brady and the Bucs, in his first year with the team, in 2020. I’m sure there will be a ton of talk about Mahomes chasing Brady over these next few weeks but from my perspective, unless Mahomes gets to 8 or 9 rings, there’s no debate.
