DEN @ NO +3: Remember when Derrek Carr lit the world on fire in weeks 1 and 2? Turns out it was more of a reflection on the Panthers and Cowboys than it was the Saints, seeing as how they’re 0-3 since then. Add in the fact that Carr is out for a few weeks with an oblique injury and those early season blowout wins seem like a lifetime ago. Denver is riding the rookie QB rollercoaster with Bo Nix with some good wins (TB and NYJ) and some bad losses (SEA and PIT) through their first 6 games. Both of these teams probably still believe they can sneak into the playoffs, but in the words of legendary wordsmith Yogi Berra, it gets late early, and seeing as how it’s already week 7, both of these teams need this one to keep their dream of a playoff appearance alive. If this game were in Denver I’d be confident in a Broncos victory, but since it’s in New Orleans, and is a short week for both teams, I’m a little less confident in the pick, but I’ll roll with Denver to cover against a backup QB. Pick: Denver
NE @ JAX -5.5: Listen, if you take away the dreadful defense, the slow start due to terrible playcalling, and the 4 turnovers, the Patriots played a great game last week (Fuck me, lol). In all seriousness, though, the Texans represent the best defense the Patriots have faced this season and New England put up a season-high 21 points thanks to the QB switch. Sure, Maye threw 2 interceptions (one was a fluke play), had another fumble, and a low pass set up another turnover by Austin Hooper, but in my mind, there’s little difference between a turnover and another Brissett-led 3-and-out. The first Maye interception was on the 4th play of the drive, his strip sack was on the 3rd pay of that drive, and his second (fluky) interception was on the 3rd play of the drive. Yes, the field position implications of an interception are not the same as a punt, but let’s not pretend Brissett was doing much more than 3-and-outs. The Texans only had the ball for one more minute than the Patriots last week while the Dolphins (who stink) had it for 9 more minutes in week 5, the 49ers had it for 5 more minutes in week 4, and the Jets for TWENTY MORE MINUTES in week 3. This is a long way of saying that, in his first career start, Drake Maye, has improved the Patriots’ offense immensely, even when acknowledging the turnovers. Hell, Jacoby Brissett had 2 TD passes through 5 games while Maye had 3 in his first career start last week against a great team. The Jaguars’ defense is nowhere near as good as the Texans, so I expect the Patriots’ offense to have another solid showing in London.
The Patriots defense, on the other hand. is playing like shit. Sure they’re down Ray Rice Jabril Peppers, Barmore, Bentley, and Judon, but their shortcomings have less to do with personnel than it does with scheme and discipline. I’d like to think they will use this Jaguars game as a “get-right” game and get the train back on the tracks.
I don’t understand how the Jaguars are favored by 5.5 points, but I don’t care. I’ll take the Pats to cover and win in a game that we may look back on as the moment things started to change in Foxborough. Pick: Patriots
TEN @ BUF -9: Man, fuck the Bills. Are they trying to win a Super Bowl, or back into the playoffs and lose in the divisional round again? Seriously. They looked good through the first three weeks but have been uninspiring lately which prompted the trade for an over-the-hill Amari Cooper (which is a solid pickup). They got smoked by the Ravens, lost a close one to the Texans, and barely survived the lowly Jets on Monday night. Every year I convince myself this is the year for the Bills, but I’m starting to think there is a fatal flaw(s) with that organization as currently constructed and that they’ll never make it. Sure, they’ll beat up on a bad team like the Titans, but when they play another proverbial heavyweight, they fold like Joe Biden answering an unplanned question. Nine points is a lot, and I hate big spreads, but this is all part of the Bills plan. They’ll hang 45 on the Titans with Cooper pulling in a pair of TD’s, win by three touchdowns, and the national media will be in love with them again, but I’m not falling for it. They’ll probably win their next four games (Titans, Seahawks, Dolphins, Colts) to get to 8-2 but you can bet your life that they’ll lose to the Chiefs in week 11. That’s a long way off, though, so give me the Bills to cover and win by a country mile. Pick: Bills
MIA @ IND -3: The Dolphins squeaked by the Patriots in week 5 before their bye week to improve their record to 2-3, but there is not much to be happy about in Miami right now. Tua is theoretically coming back at some point this year, but he’s still on IR and can’t return for another few weeks. That means Snoop Huntley will be under center again this week setting the ceiling for this offense somewhere around 17 points. The Colts get Anthony Richardson back this week, but we all know you can’t count on him to make it through this game without another injury, nor can you count on him to play competent football and take care of the pigskin. If I were a Colts fan, I’d be down low rooting for another injury to AR5 so Shane Falco Joe Flacco can get back out there and be the Pimp he is. This is kind of unrelated, but why the FUCK didn’t the Patriots sign Flacco, a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, to be their bridge guy over Jacoby Brissett? Anyway, I’ll take the Colts to cover simply because the Dolphins can’t get to 20 points and I think either of the Colts QB’s can. Pick: Colts
DET @ MIN -2: This is a big one for the Vikings. So far they have passed every test with flying colors, but they have not faced anything like this Detroit team. The Vikings were on a bye last week feeling good about themselves as they sit at 5-0 while the Lions skull-fucked the Cowboys, in Dallas, to the tune of 47-9. A few weeks ago I said that I was buying property on the SKOL bandwagon, and I still think they’ll make the playoffs and win 10-12 games, but I think the Lions are going to win the Super Bowl, and their path to New Orleans this February starts with winning their division. If the Vikings win this game they’ll be 2 games up on the Lions which is not insurmountable with 10 games left in the season, but not a desirable situation to be in for the Lions. So, with that, I’ll take the Lions to not only cover but win in a reality check game for the Vikings. Pick: Lions
CIN @ CLE +5.5: Death, taxes, the first penalty in Montreal, me making fun of Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys, and me making fun of pervy Deshaun. The five inevitable things in this world. QB Diddy is playing so poorly that there are whispers of the Browns either benching him or cutting him just to get rid of his bum-ass. When the Broncos cut Russell Wilson the whole world was shocked due to the cap ramifications, but the Browns cutting Desexual Assaultson would be unprecedented. He got the dreaded vote of confidence from Steiken last week, but if when they get blown the fuck out this week by Burrow and the Bengals, their tone may be different. Sure, something is seriously wrong in Cincinnati, but they look like a rock-solid organization when compared to the Browns. This spread would have to be somewhere around 14 points for me to even consider taking Cleveland, so the 5.5 points are nothing. Pick: Bengals
HOU @ GB -2.5: This should be a good game. Both teams have their sights set on the playoffs and, through the first third of the season, both are in great shape to make that happen. The Texans beat the bag out of the Patriots’ defense last week hanging 41 effortless points on that beleaguered unit, while the Packers did something similar to the Cardinals. I use the term “measuring stick game” often on this blog, but it fits here, too. There are a lot of bad teams in the NFL that get beaten handily by the upper class of the league every week, so when two contenders match up mid-season, it’s a good opportunity to see what both teams are made of. This game is at Lambeau, but the Packers are only giving 2.5 which means, as you all know by now, Vegas thinks the Texans are a half-point better on a neutral field, which seems about right to me. I like what the Packers are doing, big picture, but I think this Texans team is a half-notch better than them and will cover and win what should be an awesome game to watch. Pick: Texans
SEA @ ATL -3: Much like the Saints, the Seahawks’ hot start feels like a lifetime ago for Seattle fans. They sit at 3-3 and have to travel to Atlanta to face a hot Falcons team that has put up 36 and 38 points in the last two weeks. As predicted, Kirk looks better and better every week as he recovers from his achilies injury and has more time to gel with his arsenal of weapons. It sure feels like the Falcons are on the rise and the Seahawks are stuck in the mud. I’m wracking my brain to find a funny angle on this one, but I can’t, and a week 7 Falcons – Seahawks game doesn’t warrant any more brainpower. Pick: Falcons
PHI @ NYG +3: Man oh man, how the mighty have fallen. The Giants are an objectively bad team and are only 3-point dogs to the once mighty Eagles. Last week Philly beat Pervy Deshaun, but the 20-16 final score was not a convincing victory AT ALL for Eagles fans. If the Eagles lose this game, I’m convinced that Kevin Stefanski will be out of a job on Monday and that William Stephen Belichick will be taking over the operation in Philly quickly thereafter. That said, I’m not sure the Giants can beat the Eagles without some combination self-inflicted wounds by the Eagles or big plays in the kicking game. Daniel Jones is playing decent football and it seems like Nabers will be back for Big Blue, but their offense has an upper limit of like 24 points while the Eagles can hang 30+ if they are all interested and on the same page. Ultimately I don’t think either of these teams are any good, but the Giants are bad while the Eagles are, as the children say, mid. Give me the Eagles to cover and save Stefanski’s job for another week. Pick: Eagles
CAR @ WSH -9: The Commanders and my boo-thang Jayden Daniels lost last week to a Ravens team that is rolling right now, but they hung in there. Daniels threw for 269 yards and two scores without turning the ball over, but the Commanders’ defense was torched by Lamar and King Henry at M&T Bank Stadium in week 6. This was probably a reality check for both Commanders fans and Daniels-Truthers like myself. They are a good team that, I believe, will win the division, but they’re not up there with the true heavyweights just yet. However, the Panthers suck so bad I think Hoover or Dyson should be their lead sponsor with a tagline along the lines of “Dyson: we suck like the Panthers.” Nine points is a lot, though, and as the film on Daniels continues to pile up teams will start to scheme up ways to stop him and the Commander’s offense. I wouldn’t touch this one with real money, but since we pick every game I’ll roll with Daniels and the Commanders to cover. Pick: Commanders
LV @ LAR -6.5: Friends, we have our first “woof” matchup of week 7 with this Raiders-Rams game (yes, the Pats-Jags game is a dumpster fire and very worthy of the “woof” badge, but I’m a Patriots fan and this is my blog, so piss off). In an M. Night Shyamalanian twist that everyone saw coming, Aiden O’Connell was not the answer at QB for this Raiders team that was taken to the woodshed by the Steelers last week, at home, pushing their record to 2-4. To celebrate the lackluster loss, they traded away their best player in Devante Adams to the Jets for a mid-round pick in a move that is akin to screaming “Rebuld Mode” from the top of the Stratosphere Tower. The Rams were off last week, but sit at just 1-4 and look lost. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Les Snead and Sean McVay sold their sole to the devil for that Lombardi in 2021 by trading away first-round picks for established veterans now find their franchise stuck in NFL purgatory. Stafford, who’s now 36 years old, will win them enough games for them to miss out on a top 5 pick, but not enough for them to be playing meaningful football games in December. Speaking of winning enough games to miss out on a top 5 draft pick, this is one of them. The Raiders are punting on the season, and I’m sure the Rams are still holding out hope for a playoff run. The spread is a little higher than I’d like it to be at 6.5 points, but I don’t have any confidence in the Raiders organization unless Tom Brady leaves the owner’s box at halftime and throws on a uniform. Pick: Rams
KC @ SF -1.5: Super Bowl rematch, baby! The Chiefs and 49ers played an extremely entertaining game in Las Vegas last February and I, for one, am hoping for another instant classic, albeit with much less at stake. Unlike some of the other measuring stick games this week, neither of these teams will feel bad about themselves if they lose, nor will they think they are a team of destiny if they win. That’s the luxury of being a true contender. I miss those days. The Chiefs come into this off a bye and undefeated, but haven’t been world-beaters so far while the 49ers are 3-3 with a few funky losses to the Rams, Cardinals, and Vikings on their resume. In my mind, the Chefs are due for a loss, and the 49ers are due to round into form for a second-half push. I’ll take the 49ers to cover in a close game that will probably come down to the final possession. Pick: 49ers
NYJ @ PIT +2.5: How funny would it be if the Steelers beat the Jets badly this week? The Jets are in serious turmoil after firing Saleh, demoting Hackett, losing a heartbreaker on Monday Night Football to the Bills, and now trading for Devante Adams. I still think the Jets have the talent on the field to squeak into the playoffs in an overall down AFC, but I think the dysfunction on the sidelines and in the owner’s box will ultimately undo everything and they will go a perfectly average 9-8. The Steelers are the exact opposite of the Jets. Strong ownership, great stability with their coaching staff, total buy-in from the players, and a bit of “grit” to go along with it. The only reason the Jets are favored in this one is because people see Aaron Rodgers’ name and think he can still play like his former MVP self, but I don’t think that version of Rodgers still exists. I also don’t think the addition of Devante Adams does jack shit for the Jets. This game will probably be pretty close, but the Jets have shown a Patriots-esque ability to lose close games, and the rabble-rouser in me wants to see what happens in Florham Park if the Jets lose this one by a TD or more. Pick: Steelers
BAL @ TB +3.5: I have a statement to make. **Clears throat** If the Bucs win this game, they are a legit Super Bowl contender. Full stop. Sure, they had a bad loss to the Broncos, but the Ravens also have a bad loss to the fucking Raiders on their resume and nobody is questioning their status as an elite team. The Bucs have a statement win against the Lions on their resume to go along with blowout wins against the Eagles, Saints, and Commanders. They sit at 4-2 coming into this matchup which is the first in a brutal 4-game stretch that includes a rematch with the Falcons as well as games against the Chiefs and 49eres to go along with this tilt against Baltimore. I expect them to finish that stretch 2-2, but a win this week against an elite Ravens team is the ultimate confidence builder and, along with their win against the Lions, will give them something to look back on when things get tough. Speaking of the Ravens, they are rooooooooling. Derrick Henry is the ageless wonder, Lamar is a front-runner for another MVP, and their defense is the typically strong Ravens style ofdefense. I think this game will be extremely entertaining with lead changes, an inevitable bad turnover or two, and probably a Justin Tucker missed field goal (sorry, Dave). Give me the Bucs to cover and win this statement game. Pick: Bucs
LAC @ ARI +2.5: The Chargers are the most boring 3-2 team in the NFL. In fact, they feel like a fake team in a movie straight out of central casting. Cliche head coach, prototype quarterback, great uniforms, and a spectacle of a stadium, etc, but very unlikeable. They are the “other” team in every sports movie that always loses the big game to a pesky underdog. Enough of my not-so-well-thought-out analogy, though, and back to this game. The Cardinals are 2-4 with wins over the 49ers and Rams to go along with blowout losses to the Commanders (Jayden Daniels) and Packers and close losses to the Lions and Bills. They could easily be 3-3 or 4-2 with a big play here or there going their way. I’m not a believer in either of these teams but the Chargers are coming off a bye so I think they’ll have a bit of an edge in this one, so I’ll take them to cover. Pick: Chargers
