SF @ SEA +3.5: Another good matchup of TNF. Both teams are coming off surprising losses suffered in heartbreaking fashion. The Seahawks trailed the Giants all day at home but made a late charge that was thwarted by a blocked field goal late in the 4th quarter. The 49ers lead for most of the game against Call of Duty Kyler and the frisky Cardinals, finding themselves up 23-10 at halftime, but failed to score a point in the second half, losing 24-23 on an Arizona field goal with 1:37 left. The Seahawks are 3-2 and that feels right for a Geno Smith lead team, but two short weeks ago they were undefeated, so they’ll be hungry coming off two consecutive losses. The 49ers, on the other hand, are confusing the shit out of me. They moonwalked to the Super Bowl last year going 12-5 and, short of a 3-game skid in October, were dominant. Despite bringing back every key piece, they look vulnerable this year. Brock Purdy is turning it over more than he ever has, and their defense is not the feared unit it once was. I still think they’ll win the division and make noise in the playoffs, but the repeated deep playoff runs seem to be catching up with them, at least early in the season. Give me the 49ers to cover and retake first place in the NFC West. Pick: 49ers
JAX @ CHI -2.5: Chicago shut me up last week with their beatdown of the Panthers. Caleb looked great, and their defense had no trouble with Andy Dalton and the Panthers’ offense. That version of the Bears was the team that I was unrealistically expecting to see out of the chute. The Jags finally notched one in the win column against the immortal Joe Flacco and the Colts last week, but it was no cakewalk, and things still look to be an absolute mess in Duval County. If the Bears want to be taken seriously, this is a game they need to win convincingly in what may be the final nail in Doug Pederson’s coffin. Also, I have a friend who’s a Bears fan making the journey across the pond to see this one in London, so for her sake, I’m doubling down on daaa Bears. Pick: Bears
TB @ NO +3.5: The NFC South will be fun to watch all year. The Saints, Bucs, and Falcons are all good, but not great, teams. Tampa Bay is 3-2 and is tied with the Falcons atop the division, but the Saints, who are 2-2, are coming off their bye week during which they had to stew on a 2-game losing streak. Not fun. I ultimately think the Bucs will win this division and have the best QB of the three contending teams, but we all know the NFL is a week-to-week league, so a season-long prediction doesn’t hold much water any given week. I have a hunch that Derrek Carr and Co. will show up hungry for this one and play a complete game for the first time since their week 2 beatdown of the Cowgirls. Pick: Saints
ARI @ GB -5: The Cardinals are 2-3 but have been in every game save for the ass-whoopin’ my man crush Jayden Daniels laid on them two weeks ago. Historically I’ve been very “out” on Kyler, but it sure seems like he’s matured and has figured out a way to play within himself most of the time, meaning this version of Kyler is dangerous. Throw in his new boo-thang Marvin Harrison Jr, and this team feels like they can make some noise. Their defense is a bottom-third unit so I can’t see them making a run, but the last wildcard is certainly a possibility. Jordan Love finally got his first win of the year against the Rams (who are fading and fading fast) but he still turned the ball over which has been his bugaboo this year. I still like what LaFleur has going on in Green Bay, but a turnover-happy QB can derail not only momentum but an entire season, very quickly. Just ask Mac Jones. My gut says the Packers win, but it’s a 55/45 type feeling, so I’ll pick Kyler to cover the 5 points. Pick: Cardinals
IND @ TEN +1: I can’t make sense of this Colts team, but I do know that I love this late-career version of Joe Flacco. The man rolled off his couch last year and joined a Browns team that had every reason to tank, but Flacco got them into the playoffs and won Comeback Player of the Year. Somehow the Browns decided to not offer him a contract for this season, and their loss became the Colts’ gain. HOWEVER, I can’t find any report (as of Thurs morning) on who will start under center for the Colts this week with every article saying that Anthony Richardson “feels better and hopes to play.” If Bazooka Joe was playing, I’d pick the Colts and probably put some real money on them, but if they go with AR, I’d probably still pick the Colts but with a lot more caution. Pick: Colts
CLE @ PHI -9: Does this line feel outrageously high? The last time we saw the Eagles play, they got Diddy’d by the slightly above-average Bucs and looked disinterested throughout. Sure, the Eagles came into the season with sky-high expectations, but this is clearly not the team we saw in 2022 and the first half of 2023, and Jaylen Hurts is a lot closer to league average than he is to Patrick Mahomes. In fact, I think there is a real chance Kevin Stefanski will be relieved of his duties before Halloween if this team doesn’t win their next three against the Browns, Giants, and Bengals. Cleveland is a bad team that has been handcuffed by Deshaun Watson, the very man they thought would be their savior. He’s playing like Jacoby Brissett but is making 6x more than the now-benched Brissett. They can’t cut him without taking a $172M dead cap hit and that’s truly unmanageable. Sure, they could sit him and play Jameis Winston, which I’d absolutely love, but that seems like a poison pill in and of itself. So what does all of this mean for Sunday’s game you ask? I have no fucking clue. I don’t like either of these teams, but my dislike for big spreads is stronger than my distaste for the Browns and Eagles. Give me the Browns to cover in a game I’d NEVER lay a real dollar on. Pick: Browns
HOU @ NE +7: **Disclaimer – I’m obviously a gigantic Patriots homer, and the fact that they are FINALLY starting the savior Drake Maye this week has me thinking irrationally optimistic thoughts, so proceed with caution**
Drafting a Quarterback at the top of the draft is no sure thing. If you stacked every QB that was taken in the top 5 of the draft that ended up being an absolute bust, you’d have a pile taller than the Burj Khalifa. I’m also supremely aware that plenty of teams, like the Jets, find themselves drafting a quarterback at the top of the first round every few years without ever getting it right. I’m ALSO aware that a QB’s success is dependent on the team and coaching situation they parachute into, and that many guys who look like busts early on, like Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith, find success later when they play for a better organization, but I’m choosing to ignore all of those facts when it comes to Drake Maye.
The kid is the prototype. He’s exactly what you’d build when creating a quarterback in Madden. He has a big arm, a solid build, and can run when necessary. Sure, he had never called plays in the huddle before being drafted by the Patriots and his footwork needed to be cleaned up, but he’s been in the Patriots building for 5 months now, and all of the reports coming out of 1 Patriot Place seem to indicate that he’s acclimated himself well and is ready for this moment.
The Texans are a scrappy 4-1 and look to be the class of the AFC South behind second-year QB CJ Stroud (who was electric as a rookie last year), and a daunting defense that has gotten after the quarterback all year. Even strong offensive lines have struggled with Will Anderson and the Texans’ pass rush, so the Patriots JuCo line has their work cut out for them protecting Maye, but I don’t think that matters as much as we’re being led to believe. Why, you might ask? It’s simple. Drake can move. Jacoby Brissett was a fucking statue back there. He was so lethargic and slow that he should probably call up Doug Flutie and Frank Thomas and ask for some Nugenix. The Patriots rarely moved the pocket with Brissett, which is an easy way to throw off a pass rush that’s just pinning their ears back and bull-rushing whoever is in front of them, and I’m assuming it’s not because they didn’t want to, but because Jacoby can’t play like that. I’d be shocked if they don’t run a lot of that this week with their new, athletic, quarterback.
Maye simply opens up so much more for this offense. If he doesn’t like what he sees, he can scamper away for a few yards or, if we’re feeling really optimistic, a first down, in a way that Brissett and Mac Jones before him could only dream of. Just the threat of his legs will force defenses to rush with more caution and contain the threat of Maye running. While we’re drinking the hypothetical Maye Kool-Aid, I also want to point out that some next-gen stats I’ve seen (and don’t understand at all) say that Ja’Lynn Polk and Demario Douglass have been creating an elite amount of separation on their routes in recent weeks meaning Brissett wasn’t finding the open man. I’d assume Maye and his big arm will be able to take advantage of these weapons in a way that Brissett simply couldn’t or wouldn’t.
Ultimately, Drake Maye is Schrodingers Quarterback right now, and I’m choosing to believe he hasn’t been poisoned and is still very much alive, so I’m rolling with the Pats to cover and maybe maybe win. Pick: Patriots
WSH @ BAL -6.5: The new kid on the block meets the old guard in this one. My love for Jayden Daniels has been well-documented on this well-read blog, and I’m not backing off now. The Commanders are 4-1 and look like a legit playoff team that could make some noise in January if they get even league-average play from their defense. That formula will get a real test this week when they face off against reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and a Ravens team that’s on a roll with wins over the Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals the last three weeks. Sure, it took some heroics last week for the Ravens to beat the Bengals, but, in the words of Al Davis, “Just win, baby!” and that’s exactly what they did. For the Ravens, this is just another game on the 17-game schedule, and given the 6.5-point spread, conventional wisdom says they will win this one easily, but I’m not so sure. I think Jayden Daniels has a lot to prove in this one going up against a QB that he’s been compared to at every fucking turn since he won his Heisman last December. Sure, the Commanders may fall behind early and get steamrolled, but if they’re hanging around in the second half, I think a little bit of “Jayden Magic” may put Washington in a position to at least cover and maybe win. Pick: Commanders
LAC @ DEN +3: This is a meh matchup if I’ve ever seen one. The Chargers are 2-2 while the Broncos are a surprise 3-2, but neither team has lit the world on fire. For Denver, Bo Nix has been up and down but has somehow found a way to win more than he’s lost which is the mark of a good QB. I don’t think it’s sustainable, but I’ve also watched too much football over my illustrious 37 years on this blue and green marble spinning through space to discount a QB that seemingly always finds a way to win, and through 5 games, Bo Nix seems to have that “it” factor that speaks volumes louder than his stats do. Guess who is on the exact opposite end of that spectrum? Fucking Justin Herbert. This guy has all of the tools that Drake Maye does coaches dream of, but he lacks…something. I don’t dislike the kid but I’m also glad my dogshit football team is not paying him $50M a year to go a game under .500. Sure, Harbaugh is a monumental upgrade over Staley, but in a cap-reset year, and lacking the weapons that helped him go 30-32 over his first 5 years, I don’t think this team has any real playoff aspirations. Give me Bo Nix and the scrappy Broncos to not only cover but win outright. Pick: Broncos
PIT @ LVR +3: Another Meh matchup, but there are QB controversies on both sidelines in this one. Antonio Pierce has already pulled the trigger on a QB switch benching Gardner Minshew in favor of Aiden O’Connell which is like trading in a high-milage Kia for a high-milage Hyundai and expecting to see a noticeable difference. The Steelers have two QB’s that are better than either of the Raiders options, but both come with major question marks, too. Justin Fields was 3-0 a few short weeks ago but after losses to the Colts and Cowboys, there are whispers in Pittsburgh that it may be time to give Russell the Love Muscle a try in an effort to get this season back on the rails. I used to be a big Russell Wilson fan, but he’s so clearly washed that Denver swallowed more cap space than the GDP of a small nation to not have him on thier team, so I don’t expect vintage “Let Russ Cook” level play from him should he start this game. The Steelers are 3-point favorites on the road, and that feels about right. I’m going to pick the Raiders to cover due to the lift a quarterback change can bring to a team, but if I were a betting man (I am), I’d bet this game won’t see much time on Red Zone. Pick: Raiders
ATL @ CAR +6: The Andy Dalton shine has worn off a bit. He hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s been…Andy Dalton…which is three standard deviations better than Jacoby Brissett but also three standard deviations below approaching “elite.” The Falcons, on the other hand, won an absolute thriller last week on TNF against a good if not great Bucs team in one of the better football games I’ve watched in some time. Kirk is settling in and is c early more comfortable with his surgically repaired achilies, and his weapons are much better than what the Red Rifle has to work with. The 6-point spread is a little higher than I’d like, especially since this is a divisional game, but I think Khols Kash Kirk will have no problem covering the 6-points on the road. Pick: Falcons
DET @ DAL +3: In my Commanders vs Ravesn write-up, I said that matchup meant a lot more for the Commanders than it did for the Ravens, and I’ll say the same here. The Cowboys are teetering, and a bad loss here could be the end of the road for Mike McCarthy (Jerry won’t fire him because McCarthy is a sock puppet for ole Jerruh), and would definitely send the Cowboys organization into panic mode, but for the Lions, it’s just another game. They have their eyes set on the Super Bowl, and a slightly above-average Cowboys team should offer little resistance to the Lions’ finely-tuned operation. Listen, on paper Dallas should be a top-tier team, but that’s just not what the eyeball test says. This is a make-or-break year for this era of Dallas Cowboys football, and with a loss on Sunday, it’ll officially be “break” and we’ll all have to hear about it all week on ESPN. Give me the Lions in a beatdown. Fuck the Cowboys, Pick: Lions
CIN @ NYG+3.5: Cincy has to win this one, right? Joe Burrow is putting up MVP numbers but is just 1-4 on the not-so-young season. It’s borderline criminal to pair that elite offense with one of the worst defenses in the league. I know the Bengals are the cheapest organization in sports, so this shouldn’t surprise me, but if I were a Bengals fan, I’d be furious. The Giants are are “good-bad.” Objectively, they are not a good team and Daniel Jones is not a good quarterback, but they are 2-3 with quality wins over the Seahawks and Browns sandwiching a 5-point TNF loss to the Cowboys. I’m going to go with the Bengals to cover because I don’t think the Giants can keep up with the Bengals on the scorecard. THAT SAID, if the Bengals lose this week I’m out on them and will pick against them for the rest of the year out of principle. Pick: Bengals
BUF @ NYJ +2.5: lol. Buffalo by a gazillion. Pick: Bills
