It was a better week last week, but we chase perfection so it’s back to the grindstone today!
TB @ ATL -1.5: With the obvious exception of their loss to the Broncos, the Bucs have looked really good this year. They beat the feathers off of an uninspired Eagles team last week (the Eagles are on a bye so they are safe from my scrutiny and Belichick watch this week) and have wins over the Lions and Commanders as well. We’re at the quarter-pole, and I don’t think a team in the league has a better resume than Baker and the Bucs. As I said last week, the Falcons have been in every game they have played this year, and with last week’s win they are a perfectly average 2-2. They have one of the league’s best kickers, which has helped them immensely, but 6 > 3, so they need to find the endzone with more efficiency to truly compete. Kirk looks like Kirk. Not a top-10 QB, but comfortably above average. I’m struggling to see why the Falcons are favored in this game, albeit slightly, over a team that features an offense with a higher upside than the Falcons, but it’s Thursday Night Football, baby! Throw the records out the window. I’ll take the Bucs to win and pull away a bit in the 4th, Picks: Bucs
NYJ @ MIN -2.5: Hand up. I thought the Jets had figured something out and were poised to make a run – and they still could – but my god was that ugly last week against the Broncos. Rodgers has that look that every Packer fan has burned onto their retina, that look of “oh fuck this,” and once he breaks that face out, it generally does not mean good things for his team. If this dickface didn’t win that Super Bowl early in his career he would be looked at as one of the greatest losers in NFL history, but that early ring does wonders for guys. (Side note: this is why I’m ecstatic that Tatum and Brown got that elusive first title out of the way so the “HeS nEvEr WoN aNyThInG” moniker won’t hang around their neck anymore.) Then there’s the Vikings. I was hesitant to buy in after two great games to start the season, but I climbed on the Skol train after their week three beatdown of the Texans and I like it here so much I may buy a house. Until their offense slows down or their defense implodes, I’ll be riding with them every week, save for a massive spread. Skol train rolls on this week in dominating fashion. Also, fuck the Jets. Pick: Vikings
MIA @ NE -1: This game will set professional football back to the Bronco Nagurski era. The ‘Fins will be starting a 4th stringer who looked lost last week against a bad Titans team that beat the fish brains out of Miami in prime time AT HOME. The Patriots will be starting an old, stiff, and untalented Jacoby Brissette who is being paid $8M this year to put his life on the line behind one of the worst offensive lines ever assembled at any level of football. I don’t think Brissett is good, but I admire his ability to repeatedly peel himself off the grass, play after play, and put on a brave face. I’d have pulled a Vonte Davis after week 3, and if Brissette doesn’t go down with an injury at some point soon, he may end up like Vonte Davis by the end of this season. The Patriots are at home and I think their defense is better than the Dolphins, so I’ll pick them in a game somebody has to win (no chance the script writers push this game to OT), but my interest in this contest is so low, I’ll be at the Topsfield Fair eating deep-fried Oreos waiting for my phone to blow up with the news of Drake Maye taking over under center. Pick: Patriots
CAR @ CHI -4: I’m all over the place on the Bears. I truly thought they’d be good this year but Caleb ain’t the guy we all thought he would be right away. Granted we’re only 4 games into his career, but it sure looks like he’s not Superman and will need time to develop at this level just like almost every other rookie QB does, this side of Jayden Daniels, regardless of their hype. They’ve only played 1 decent team in the Texans and have yet to play an NFC North team. Given how good the Packers, Lions, and Vikings look, that could be bad news for the Bears. The Panthers are showing signs of life after benching that puss-bag Bryce Young, and Andy Dalton has looked like prime younger Andy Dalton through two starts. He, much like Will Levis, has a turnover fetish that can rear its ugly head at any point, but he’s definitely turned things around in Charlott. I’m going to ride with the Panthers to cover here, and something tells me they will win. For the record, this is a pick against the Bears more than it is a pick for the Panthers. Pick: Panthers
IND @ JAX -3: Jacksonville has gotta get one here, right? I don’t think they’re even a playoff team, let alone a legit contender, but mother of god, they are not 0-5 bad…are they? They just signed Trevor Lawrence to a 5-year, $275M contract, but he’s looked a lot more like Jacoby Brissett than…Sam Darnold…so far. Look, we all know the line between winning and losing in the NFL is an extremely thin one, and that wins and losses generally come down to a few key plays and, unfortunately for the Jags, a few key calls from a head coach. Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl with the Eagles but was unceremoniously dismissed just two seasons later, and we’re beginning to see why with his questionable play calling and a lack of buy-in from his guys. The Colts, on the other hand, are 2-2 but have a bit of QB drama. Anthony Richardson left their Week 4 game against the Steelers opening the door for Joe Flacco to save the day. AR is day to day, but if he’s not ready to go the dropoff to Flacco is not a huge one, although his skill set is obviously different from Richardson’s. I think the Jags get off the schnide this week in a close one, but I’ll take the Colts to cover. Pick: Colts
BUF @ HOU +1: Just when you start to truly believe in the Bills, they do something so stupid or uninspiring that makes you say “Same ole Bills,” and that’s exactly what happened last Sunday Night in Baltimore. The Bills were ROLLING heading into that matchup against a 1-2 Ravens team that barely held off a 4th quarter comeback by the Cowboys in Dallas the week before. I picked the Bills to win and win easily, but that’s not how it played out. King Henry ran it down Buffalo’s throat and Lamar did his thing en route to a 35-10 win and a serious reality check for Josh Allen and Co. The Texans are 3-1 but have not had a dominant performance yet and were blown out by the juggernaut Vikings in week 3, but unlike many teams, like the Jaguars, they win the close ones which is the mark of a good team. Both of these teams need this game in the sense that it’s an early(ish) season measuring stick game, but the Bills have been knocking on the proverbial door for so long now, they NEED a trip to the Super Bowl before their window closes, and winning games like this one are how you get there. I’ll take Buffalo to win but this won’t be easy for them. Pick: Bills
BAL @ CIN +2.5: The Bengals starting the season 0-3 was a surprise, but when you look a little closer, it’s shocking since they have yet to play a division game. Much like the Bears, the Bengals play in a tough division with the Steelers, Ravens, and Browns…and the one weak link, the Browns, has historically had the Bengals number. The Ravens have completely forgotten about their 0-2 start with two straight wins against good teams in the Cowboys and Bills and seem to have found their mojo, but at just 2-2 they are still digging out of the hole they dug themselves in weeks 1 and 2. I like the Bengals and still think they will squeak into the playoffs, especially since teams like the Dolphins, Browns, Jags, and Jets (kind of) that were expected to compete for a playoff spot have been exposed and look more like basement dwellers than contenders. That said, 1-4 is a steep hill to climb for Burrow and the boys. I’ll take the Ravens to roll here and cast some serious doubt over the Bengals organization. Pick: Ravens
CLE @ WSH -3: Jayden Daniels is fucking electric. Every time I watch him ball out I die a little bit on the inside. Had the Patriots lost either the Pittsburgh or Denver game in December last year, he’d be a Patriot and our franchise would have a legitimate direction, but in one last “fuck you” on his way out, Bill had to win those games. God that pisses me off. Anyways, The Browns are broken, Deshaun is a pervert who is more checked out than Aaron Rodgers, and it sure seems like Stefanski has completely lost his team. Given the way Daniels and the Commanders have been playing, I think it’s borderline insulting for the spread to be as low as it is. I’ll ride with the white-hot commanders in this one over a lifeless Browns team. Pick: Commanders
LV @ DEN -2.5: This is a tough one because of the Broncos. On one hand, they are riding a mini 2-game winning streak with wins over two east coast teams in the Bucs and Jets on the road, but on the other hand, Bo Nix is still not very good. His winning stat line in last week’s game in New Jersey was 12/25 for a mind-blowing 60 yards. That’s not enough to get it done in the NFL very often. The Raiders are coming off a gritty win over the deadbeat Browns but confidence is still low after getting Diddy’d by the Panthers in week 3. Gardner Minshew is…Gardner Minshew, Devante Adams has requested a trade and their head coach, Antonio Pierce, is publically calling guys out for a lack of effort. Both of these teams are mired in rebuild mode and have a long way to go before they are true competitors. I’ll take Sean Peyton and Bo Nix to win this game, at home, at altitude, in a low-scoring affair. Pick: Broncos
ARI @ SF -7.5: The Cardinals are 1-3 and were blown the fuck out by my guy Jayden Daniels last week, so you know they’ll be looking to avenge that loss against a 49ers team that got its mojo back last week in their beatdown of the Patriots. I’m pretty confident that the 49ers will win this game, but we all know I don’t like big spreads, so the 7.5 points is scaring me a bit. Had SF won either of the Vikings or Rams games and were sitting at 3-1, I’d Damn the Torpedos and pick the 49eres to cover, but those losses and some sloppy play against the Patriots last week is enough for me to roll with the Cardinals to cover. Pick: Cardinals
NYG @ SEA -6: It’s amazing how my view of a team changes when they have an elite receiver, and Malik Nabors is just that. The Giants’ offense is underwhelming, but having Nabors gives them a chance to score at a moments notice. Full disclosure, he’s also on 2 of my fantasy teams, so I do have a dog in this fight. The Seahawks took one on the chin against an elite Detroit team last week and will be looking to get back to their winning ways against a team they are significantly better than. I’m becoming a Geno Believer and I think he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder against his former team, at home. Six points is a big number, but I’m willing to roll with it given the mismatch of talent in this one. Pick: Seahawks
GB @ LAR +3: If I told you before the season started that the Packers would be 2-2 and that Jordan Love would have missed two games, you’d probably assume Love won his starts and the team failed to score enough with Malik Willis under center to compete in the two games Love missed. WRONG. The Packers have lost both of Love’s starts, and his 4 interceptions have played a big part in those losses. Malik Willis kept the train on the tracks for two weeks and didn’t turn the ball over at all. Seems important. The Packers have a good roster and Love looks like the real deal, but he’s going to have to cut way down on those interceptions if he doesn’t want to hear whispers about him being overpaid. The Rams, as I’ve said here a few times, are just getting old. When you add in the injuries to their top two pass catchers Nakua and Kupp, the outlook for the Rams is not too hot. McVay is still a spectacular coach and Stafford still has enough left in the tank to win, but Les Snead has left the rest of the roster pretty bare. He mortgaged their future when he went all in for the 2021 season and that obviously paid off in a Lombardi, but when you trade away future draft capital for the here and now, you have to pay the piper at some point. I still think the Rams will be in the proverbial “in the hunt” section of the playoff picture but I think their championship window has closed.
As far as this game is concerned, I have to think Love will be extra careful with the ball and play within himself and the system. It’s not like you have to score 40 to beat the Rams. Give me the Packers to win and cover in a game that ends with a score of something like 24-17. Pick: Packers
DAL @ PIT -2.5: I hope like hell the Steelers win this one. Dallas is 2-2 and is coming off the mini-bye, yet they seem to be just hanging on. This has been a long week at work and I’m tired so I can’t come up with a new way to trash McCarthy, but I still hate him and I think his parents probably spend a lot of time at home avoiding other people so they don’t have to hear about how fucking stupid their son is. Look at me, still found a way to bash that fat fuck. The Steelers lost for the first time last week, but Justin Fields was magnificent throwing for over 300 yards and a score to go along with two TDs on the ground. I’m a little bit torn here. I think the Cowfags are better than the Steelers, but Mike Tomlin is a very respected head coach who always has his team playing hard and the Cowqueers are not. Give me the Steelers to really piss in the CowLGBTQIA+’s cheerios and turn the heat on McCarthy’s seat way up. Pick: Steelers
NO @ KC -5.5: Last week was the week my blind confidence in Mahomes started to waver. Sure, they still won, but they lost their best receiver and their offense doesn’t look like what we’ve come to expect from the Chiefs. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still a #MahomesBeliever and you can pencil pen them into the AFC CG, but it won’t be a waltz. Conventional wisdom says that with Rice sidelined, Kelce will see an increase in targets and Xavier Worthy will get more opportunities to show off his game-changing speed so all is not lost for Kansas City. The Saints’ high-flying offense has come back to earth these last few weeks scoring 12 and 24 points against the Eagles and Falcons respectively. Nobody in the country had more fun with Derek Carr doing his best Peyton Manning impression early on, but we all knew that wouldn’t last. Carr hasn’t been objectively bad these last two weeks, but he’s thrown an interception in each game and has not thrown a TD pass since week 2. Through a quarter of the season the Saints are averaging 31.8 points a game, good for the #1 rating in the NFL while the Chiefs are a full 10 points worse at 21.5. I know I’m going to regret this, but I’m going with the Saints. The Chiefs and their injuries are due to lose one and the Saints have too much firepower to be kept quiet for a third week in a row. Pick: Saints
