This season has been…unpredictable…so far. The Vikings looked like the best team in the league, the Saints came crashing back to earth, and the 49ers, Cowboys, and Ravens are all 1-2. Some call it parody, but I, a man of culture, call it a plague of shitty play, league-wide. Anyways, on to week 4!
DAL @ NYG +5.5: Thursday Night Football is a love-hate thing with me. The games are often ugly and uninspired, but I’m an absolute slut for the NFL so I watch anyways. This game, in a vacuum, shapes up to be a laugher with the Cowboys absolutely rolling the Giants. Still, after two uninspiring games for Dallas (outside of like 10 minutes in the 4th quarter last week), I’m really starting to question what the hell is going on in Big D. Every week I take a thinly veiled direct shot at Mike McCarty for being an absolute moron who is wasting the prime years of a super-talented roster, but at this point, that may be an understatement. Jerry controls every aspect of the Cowboys’ organization, so he’s just as complicit in this as McCarthy, maybe more so, but my god is Mike McCarthy a terrible head coach.
On the other hand, the New York Football Giants pulled off a workman-like win last week against a lost Browns team. Rookie WR Malik Nabers had a breakout game to the tune of 8 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. Daniel Jones is still a very limited QB and their roster is a bottom-third roster, but Dabol seems to be embracing the suck and sticking to what they do. In fact, the Giants were 5-point dogs last week and won outright, so I’ll stick with them to cover again in an ugly TNF game. Pick: Giants
PIT @ IND +2: I can’t figure out what to make of these Steelers. They’re 3-0 and nothing can take that away from them, but their offense is bad. The old saying goes “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none,” and that down low seems to be the case with this Justin Fields – Russell Wilson situation. Sure, they play suffocating defense, as is usually the case in Pittsburgh, but how long can you win with just defense and ball control? It is still early and they are 3-0, but they will need to figure out how to score more than 20 points if they want to be taken seriously and make a real playoff push.
The Colts are another confusing team. They are 1-2 but could easily be 2-1 or 3-0. Anthony Richardson continues to alternate between highlight reel plays and Mac Jones-style turnovers, drive to drive. When he was drafted, everyone acknowledged that he was “raw” and would need time to develop. I guess that’s still true, but I’m beginning to think Chris Ballard was simply blown away at AR’s physical tools and athleticism to the point he ignored the fact that Richardson is not a good enough passer to succeed in the NFL.
After all of that, I’ll roll with the Colts to put an end to Pittsburgh’s undefeated start. Pick: Colts
MIN @ GB -2.5: Last week I said the Vikings needed to give me a third week of great play before I’d consider them legit. They did just that to the tune of a 34-7 beatdown of the previously undefeated Texans. Minnesota is for real this year…at least for now. The Packers are 2-0 with Malik Willis under center filing in for a hobbled Jordan Love which is not something I saw coming. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur isn’t talked about as one of the best coaches in the NFL, but I think he should be. He went to 2 NFCCG’s with an uninterested Rodgers, won a playoff game with Love in his first year as a starter, and has figured out a way to win 2 games with a backup QB who had not had any success in the NFL before stepping in for the Pro Bowler Love. I’ll cautiously take the Vikings in this one but I can’t shake the thought that they’ll have the “back to earth” game the previous high-flying Saints had last week against a very good defense. Pick: Vikings
JAX @ HOU -7: One of my favorite games to play in the NFL is one I like to call “On the Rise or Aberration.” In 2022 the Giants and Jaguars both won playoff games and were teams “on the rise,” but last year saw both teams miss the playoffs and they have struggled so far in 2024 looking a lot more like bottom feeders than contenders making 2022 an aberration for both. The Texans surprised everyone in the English-speaking world in 2023 winning their division and a playoff game with a rookie QB and first-time head coach. They are 2-1 in 2024 with two hard-fought wins against unimpressive teams in the Colts and Bears in weeks 1 and 2 before getting blown out by the Vikings last week. I still think the Texans will be a playoff team this year, but if they fuck around and lose to a winless Jags team this week many, including myself, will second-guess. I’ll take the Texans to win but I think the Jags will cover. Pick: Jaguars
NO @ ATL -1.5: I don’t know what to make of this Falcons team. They are 1-2 and that feels right, but their two losses were to the Steelers in Kirk’s first game back from an achilles tear and to the Chiefs last week in a close game on Sunday Night. Their lone win was a nail-biter against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. They’ve been in every game to the end meaning they could easily be 3-0 or 0-3 with a little luck, good or bad, so as I said 1-2 feels about right given their offensive struggles. The Saints’ balloon of pure optimism burst a bit last week when Derrick Carr looked a lot more like late-career Eli Manning than prime Peyton. After scoring 47 & 44 points in their first two games they mustered only 12 against the Eagles at home last week. Was it a bad game for the Saints or were the first two weeks the aberration? This week will tell me a lot about both teams. If the Falcons win they can hold their head high and move forward with some real confidence and have the Saints questioning what they really are. Conversely, if the Saints win (especially if they put up 30+ points on a good defense), they will have all the confidence in the world that they can compete with anyone, and the Falcons will be 1-3 with their season slipping away before Mariah Carey even starts to thaw out.
LAR @ CHI -2.5: Am I a fool? I keep waiting for this Bears team to have a good game offensively and it just doesn’t seem like it’s close to coming to fruition. They got a lucky win in Week 1 against the Titans thanks to Will Levis playing QB like Uncle Rico before losing two in a row to the Texans and Colts, scoring 13 and 16 points respectively. I gotta think Caleb and Co. will put it all together at some point given their (perceived) talent, but I also know that Matt Eberflus is the head coach in Chicago, and he has a ton of Mike McCarthy vibes, which is not a compliment. The Rams saved their season in a gritty game against the Bandaid Brigade 49ers last week with a big 4th quarter comeback. It was a solid win for a team that needed to notch one in the win column, but the injuries to the 49ers offense can’t be overlooked, so we’ll take that win with a George Kittle and Christian McCaffree-sized grain of salt. I have no real feeling about how this one will shake out, but until the Bears show some life offensively, I’ll roll with the McVay-Stafford duo to cover and win this one. In fact, I figured the RAMS would be favorites, not the Bears. Pick: Rams
PHI @ TB +2.5: Are the Eagles good? They humbled the Saints last week in a game that saw a combined 27 points after losing to the Falcons the week before in the last minute of the 4th quarter. They sit at 2-1 and have looked pretty good but nowhere near great this year which is what I think they are. Yet another team with an inept head coach and loads of offensive and defensive talent. If only a coach were sitting on his boat named VIII Rings that they could call up to turn things around… The Bucs looked straight up AWFUL last week as Bo Nix dissected their defense like a 7th grader dissecting a frog in 4th-period life science. Seriously. Nix couldn’t hit Rosie O’Donnell with a donut from 3 feet away in his first two starts, but against the Bucs last week, he looked like Dave Grohl sliding the ball into holes that shouldn’t. Prevailing wisdom says the Bucs overlooked the Broncos after their big win in Detroit the previous week and were focusing on this Eagles matchup, so they better win this one or that early season optimism will turn into “did they overpay for Baker” talk on sports radio. I think they’ll right the (pirate) ship and beat the eagles in another close one. Pick: Bucs
CIN @ CAR +4.5: The Red Rifel, ladies and gentlemen. Andy FUCKING Dalton, from the retirement home, had the best quarterbacking game of the young season across the league. I did not have that on my bingo card. Listen, we all know Andy Dalton is not week 1 & 2 Derrick Carr, but he’s a vast improvement over Bryce Young, and I think the Panthers players will play a lot harder with him taking snaps than they did with Young. That said, the Bengals are a cornered predator after their loss against the Commanders on Monday Night Football. Sitting at 0-3 the odds are stacked against them when it comes to making the playoffs, but they can’t be thinking about big-picture things right now. They need to put their heads down and start stacking wins. unfortunately for the Panthers, I think they are going to be a sacrificial lamb that Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase use to get their season back on the tracks, because if they lose, changes will be coming to the Bengals organization and I don’t think this group wants that. Pick: Bengals
DEN @ NYJ -7.5: I fucking hate the Jets. They embarrassed my beloved Patriots last week and, as predicted, Rodgers continues to improve every week. Now they are coming off the mini-bye week with a ton of momentum and more importantly, confidence. The whole Aaron Rodgers operation finally looked like what expected it to look like last week against a good defense, so the only way the Broncos win is if they put up some points, which they are capable of doing. I don’t think they can keep up this week tough. The Jets aren’t a finished product yet but they have plenty to dismiss this Broncos team that may be out over their skis a little bit after their dominant win in Tampa last week. Pick: Jets
WSH @ ARI -3: Jayden Daniels was electric last week and looked every bit the part. He threw the ball with extreme precision and did enough with his legs to gain the respect of the Bengals’ defense. He’s the guy I wanted to fall to the Pats in the draft, and that game on Monday is exactly why. The Commanders are 2-1 and are feeling it right now. Arizona has been up and down this year. They lost a close one in Orchard Park in week 1 before going all P-Diddy on the Rams in week 2 before losing a close one to the Lions in week 3. They are miles better than they have been in previous seasons and figure to be an “in the hunt team” all year long. I have no real feeling on this one, but I’ll roll with the Commanders to cover because I like what I saw from Daniels on MNF and want to see more of that. Pick: Commanders
NE @ SF -10: Ten points, man. Ten fucking point dogs. I miss Brady. What would the spread be if Kittle, Debo, and McCaffree were healthy? 15? This looks like the end of the road for Jacoby Brissett starting in New England. This Patriots offense has been stagnant and unimaginative which is a reflection of the OC, the QB, and the offensive line. The reports out of Foxborough are that Maye has been great in practice and at a certain point the change has to be made to save face with the other 52 guys on the team. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the 49er’s defense is healthy and looking to pad their stats against an offense with no playmakers and a JuCo offensive line. Ten points is a lot, but I don’t think the Patriots can score more than 10, and even the hobbled 49ers offense can put up 20 given the number of opportunities they’ll get after a Patriots 3-and-out. Pick: 49ers
CLE @ LV -1: Sticking with the theme, the Raiders’ week 2 win against the Ravens can now be classified as an aberration. They followed up that gutsy performance with an absolute dud against the Panthers last week. I was a prisoner of the moment when I said the Raiders would do enough to be annoying for their opponents all year, but I absolutely spoke too soon. This is a bad team with an inexperienced coach and journeyman QB which is a recipe for disaster in the NFL. Cleveland is back to their bottom-feeder ways despite having a 2X coach of the year in Kevin Stefanski who won the award LAST YEAR, and that’s impressive. Deshaun Watson is totally lost and uninterested which seems to be poisoning the their whole building. I’m assuming pervy Deshaun will be out on the strip trying to add another sexual assault to his illustrious wrap sheet the night before the game, so I’ll take the Raiders here in a game pitting two teams that will pick in the top 10 against each other: Pick: Raiders
KC @ LAC +8.5: That’s a big number. The Chiefs are 3-0 but have not exactly set the world on fire and if Travis Kelce has one more invisible game, someone’s going to have to put his face on the side of a milk carton and send out a BOLO. The Chargers will either be without Justin Herbert or with a limited Herbert, which is not how you beat Mahomes. Like I said last week, I’ll roll with the Chiefs until they give me a reason to doubt them, but unlike last week against the Falcons, this 8.5 number does give me some pause, but #InMahomesWeTrust. Pick: Chiefs
BUF @ BAL -2.5: The Bills looked unstoppable against the Jags. If you threw University of Georgia jerseys on the Bills and West Texas A&M jerseys on the Jags, everyone would figure it was a pay-to-play early-season college game and not a matchup of two of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. Buffalo dominated both sides of the ball and Josh Allen was wearing a baseball hat for the majority of the second half. The Ravens looked dominant in the first half last week and won their first game of the year in Dallas despite a late rally from Dak and the Cowboys offense. If they play like they did in the first half, the Ravens can hang with the Bills, but if they play like they did in the second half, it’ll be a long day at M&T Bank Stadium. Realistically, they’re probably something in the middle which won’t be enough to beat the Bills. Pick: Bills
TEN @ MIA -1: Is it too early to flex a game out of prime time? Seriously. Nobody wants to watch Will Levis and Snoop Huntley play football, including Levis’ and Huntley’s mothers. This game is going to be uglier than Hilary Clinton in a bikini. The Dolphins are at home so I’ll roll with them but as soon as the Seattle-Detroit game starts, I won’t watch a second of this dumpster fire. Pick: Dolphins
SEA @ DET -3.5: This is a great matchup. I won’t go so far as to say the Seahawks are a surprise 3-0 team, but this start was not expected. They’ve beaten the Broncos in Bo Nix’s first career start, the Patriots who stink, and a Tua-less Dolphins team, but like I said in the Steeler’s writeup, 3-0 is 3-0 and nobody can take that away from them. They take care of the ball, play good enough defense, and do just enough on offense to get by. The Lions are on a mission to avenge their loss in the NFC CG last year and winning games like this one are a big part of putting themselves in a position to get there again. I think this will be a great game and can’t wait to fall asleep at halftime :-). I’ll take the Lions to cover at home for two reasons. First, I think they’re a better team and the crowd in Detriot will be electric. Secondly, the Seahawks are 3-0 but they don’t feel like a team that should be 4-0. Just a feeling, yak now? Anyway, give me Detriot by a TD. Pick: Lions
