I was a little over .500 last week which is a huge win on week 1. I’m back at it for week two with a little more intel after watching everyone play a real football game for the first time in 7 months.
BUF @ MIA -2.5: Hell of a game to get week 2 started. Both teams won last week, but neither did so in convincing fashion. It remains to be seen if the Cardinals or Jaguars, who lost to the Bills and Dolphins last week respectively, are going to be any good this year, but they gave these AFC East contenders all they could handle in Week 1. The Dolphins are only 2.5-point favorites at home which is usually good for a field goal in the spread so Vegas thinks the Bills would win on a neutral field, which I totally agree with. Miami is a tough place to play early in the season with the South Florida heat, but this game is being played at night, so that won’t be much of a problem for the Bills. I’m confident both teams will make the playoffs, but until the Dolphins beat the Bills, I’ll roll with history (and Josh Allen) and take the Bills to cover (and win). Pick: Bills
NO @ DAL -6: Derrick Carr looked like Payton Fucking Manning last week in the Saints beatdown of the lowly Panthers, but the Cowboys are a different animal entirely. Coming off a ho-hum win in Cleveland against a Browns team that has the makings of a 2-15 team, the Cowboys are rested, healthy, and are looking to go to 2-0 before a tough 4-game stretch that includes the Ravens, Lions, and 49ers. I’m very much on record as a masochist who loves watching the Cowboys excel in the regular season and fall flat on their face, at home, in the playoffs and I don’t expect this year to be any different. However, the 6 points feels a little high, so I’ll take the Saints to cover. Pick: Saints
LVR @ BAL -9: I hate big spreads, but I think this Raiders team is going to be outright unwatchable this season. An inexperienced head coach, journeyman QB, and an aging star receiver who seems to have mentally checked out are ingredients in a recipe for disaster. The Ravens are salty following their week one loss to the Chiefs in a game they lost by about 2 centimeters (what a fucking game), and have had a few extra days to rest since they played on Thursday. I think the Raves are going to absolutely ROLL here, and 50 points is on the radar for the Ravens. I’ll go a step further and say that the spread would have to be in the mid-20s for me to even consider picking the Raiders here. Pick: Ravens
NYG @ WSH -1.5: We got our first “Woof” game of the season. For those unfamiliar, a Woof game is a game between two bad teams with no compelling storylines. If this game was later in the season, there’d be some interest in Dabol being on the hot seat and Daniel Jones fighting for maybe a backup job somewhere else next year, but in week 2, we just have two bad teams and a rookie QB in Daniels who is still learning the game at the NFL level. I think the Giants (like the Raiders) are a sinking, rudderless ship, while the Redskins Football Team Commanders have a light at the end of the tunnel with a young, dynamic QB and an experienced coach in Dan Quinn(28-3, lol). I’ll take the Commanders to win easily here, although I don’t think this game will be very high-scoring at all. Pick: Commanders
LAC @ CAR +6: Shit, we’re 4 games in here and the Panthers are the third team I’m going to bash. These guys fucking BLOW. They idiotically traded up for Bryce Young and therefore forfeited their chance to take Caleb Williams this past April. They are a complete dumpster fire. Bryce Young still looks lost as he starts his second year at the helm, and their defense is about as tough as a wet paper bag. The Chargers are no world-beaters, but I down low believe the Georgia Bulldogs would give the Panthers a real run for their money. Pick: Chargers
IND @ GB +3: No Jordan Love is a real problem for Green Bay. He’s their $250M man and is the engine that makes their offense run. The Colts, on the other hand, lost a close one to the Texans last week despite an absolutely electric performance from Anthony Richardson. Both of these teams, when healthy, are comparable, fringe playoff teams, but when the starting QB for one is missing, this matchup becomes lopsided. Give me the Colts in a game that’s not close in the second half. Pick: Colts
SF @ MIN +5.5: I don’t give a FUCK what Sam Darnold and the Vikings did to the trash-bag Giants last week. The 49ers are a goddamn waggon. No CMC? No problem. Jordan Mason ran all over the “elite” Jets defense last week in an absolute rout of Gang Green. Barring injury, I don’t see anyone outside of maybe the Lions standing in the way of SF’s pursuit of a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. Give me the 49eres by two touchdowns. Pick: 49ers
CLE @ JAX -4: The Browns are broken and may finish the season with a top-10 pick, but they have enough talent on their roster to win 7-9 games. That is unless Deshaun Watson torpedos their entire franchise with terrible play and a palpable lack of interest. The Jags are on a mission to prove they are more of the 2022 version of themselves than the 2023 team that admittedly battled injuries all season. I’m skeptical about the Jag’s long-term ceiling, but I think they have plenty in the tank to beat this Browns team that feels completely and utterly lost just a week into the season. Pick: Jags
SEA @ NE +3.5: Hand up. I know I’m a homer AND I have tickets for this game, so everything I’m about to say is coming from a place of pure optimism after a Patriots win that I did not see coming. But fuck it. We haven’t had much to cheer about in New England since Brady left.
The Patriots surprised almost everyone in the English-speaking world last week in Cincinnati, and I’m not even talking about winning the game. The two biggest weaknesses coming into this year for the Patriots were the offensive line and discipline. We all figured we’d see Jacoby Brissett get pummeled into the ground and the refs icing their arms after the game from throwing so many flags. That’s not how it shook out. The offensive line played well enough for Brissett and Stevenson to operate, they didn’t get penalized anywhere near as much as expected, and the defense was stellar. Will it hold up? Who knows. The Seahawks squeaked by a Denver team that looked lost behind rookie QB Bo Nix. I’m reluctant to put too much stock in how they looked last week due to how bad Bo Nix looked, but a win in the NFL is a win, and they got one in week 1. This will probably be a close, low-scoring game that may come down to special teams. I’ll take the Patriots to cover and win, but most of that is rooted in my tickets to the game. Pick: Patriots
NYJ @ TEN +3.5: Can you imagine if the Jets lose this one? It’d be magical, and I don’t think it’s out of the question. The Titans should have won last week in Chicago, but their QB, Will Levis, threw more TDs to the Bears than their own QB did. Not a recipe for success, and only time will tell if that was week 1 rust or a real problem for the Titans. The Jets got embarrassed in San Fran, and Mr. Rodgers has the “get me out of here” look on his face. I’m starting to think the Jets season may be on the brink of unraveling, and as the metaphor goes, the fish rots from the head down. I’m cautiously taking the Jets to cover because they have to win this one, but I would NOT bet a cent on it. Pick: Jets
TB @ DET -7.5: This is a playoff rematch from last year with both teams running it back with basically the same squad. The Lions won that game 31-23, and I don’t think anything has changed on either roster enough for me to think the outcome will be much different. That said, 7.5 points is a lot, so I’ll take the Bucs to cover, but the Lions to win. Pick: Buccaneers
LAR @ ARI -1: The Cardinals are a cheque pick to “surprise” people this year, but I’m still not a believer in Kyler, and the Rams surely won’t be surprised by what they see since they play the Cardinals 2x a year. Also, Marvin Harrison Jr, the FOURTH PICK IN THE DRAFT, and one of the best receiving prospects to enter the league since Calvin Johnson, only had 1 catch last week in a nail-biter against the Bills. What the fuck is that about (he’s on my fantasy team and that pissed me off if we’re in the circle of trust here)? At the end of the day, the Rams are a known commodity with an all-world receiver and more-than-good-enough QB while the Cardinals live in the hypothetical realm, at least for now. Give me the Rams in a laugher. Pick: Rams
PIT @ DEN +2.5: Like I said earlier when talking about the Seahawks’s week 1 victory over Denver, Bo Nix looked absolutely lost, and it’s hard to win in the NFL when your QB is quite obviously thinking and not playing. The Steelers are no world beaters themselves and actually failed to score a TD last week, getting all 18 points via 6 field goals. The one thing that gives me pause is the elevation advantage the Broncos hold over every opponent in the NFL. I’ll take the Broncos to cover in an ugly game that will almost undoubtedly feature a defensive TD. Pick: Broncos
CIN @ KC -5.5: The Bengals do not look right and the Chiefs look like a finely tuned machine. I think KC rolls here and wins by 2 TDs. Pick: Chiefs
Side note here, but I fucking LOVE watching the Chiefs play. When the Patriots were good I loved to hate on other good teams like Peyton Manning Colts, but now that the Patriots are not contenders in any way, shape, or form, I’m actually able to enjoy what the Chefs are doing.
CHI @ HOU -6: I’m not sure what happened in Chicago last weekend, but I do know Caleb Willias was served a steaming plate of humble pie, and how he reacts and learns from it will tell a lot about his makeup. The Bears defense seems to be as good as advertised and can hide some of the inevitable growing pains that a young signal caller will go through while conventional wisdom says that the offense will hit its stride at some point as they continue to work with each other. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Texans are a legit playoff team that won’t turn the ball over like the Titans did at Soldier Field last week. I’m not a fan of this 6-point spread, but I’ll take the Texans to cover simply because I think it’ll take a few more weeks for Williams to fully find his groove in the NFL. Pick: Texans
ATL @ PHI -6.5: I have absolutely zero idea how this spread is not double digits. The Falcons and Kirk Cousins looked lethargic last week against a painfully average Steelers team that will finish within a game of .500. Kirk looks like he’s still hurt, and at 36 years old, father time is not in his corner. The Eagles looked like the team that went 10-1 to start out the year last season against the Packers in Brazil, and I can’t imagine a lethargic, old Kirk Cousins will pose much of a threat in the Eagles home opener. Give me the Eagles in a laugher. Pick: Eagles
