Welcome back to another year of NFL picks. For those unfamiliar with the format, I pick each game against the spread every week and offer a little insight (and humor) into why I picked that way. Before we get started on another season of picks, I want to mention two disclaimers. First, these get much funnier as the season rolls along. For the first few weeks, especially week 1, the analysis is the same talking points that have been beaten to death all offseason. Nobody has played a snap of real football in 7 months and teams don’t show any schemes or wrinkles in the three preseason games, so finding something clever to harp on is not easy. The second is that Vegas is good at setting lines for games, and picking winners is not nearly as hard as picking against the spread. Sure, you’d pick the Chiefs to beat the Patriots any given week, but will they beat them by 13.5 points? That’s much harder to answer – but we pick every game every week, even the trash matchups. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into it!
BAL @ KC -3: The Chiefs are doing now what the Patriots did from 2011-2018, and that is waking up every day knowing it’s their birthright to play in the AFC Championship game. They are the only team in the NFL that can look at the first month of the season as an extension of training camp and build toward the postseason knowing they’ll be playing at least one playoff game at Arrowhead. Therefore, I’m taking the Ravens to cover and win outright. The Ravens are still pissed that they lost to these very Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game last year, and quite frankly have far more to prove in this one than the Chiefs. Don’t get me wrong, the Chiefs will win the war, but the Ravens will draw first blood and win this battle. Pick: Ravens
GB @ PHI -3 (Brazil): First things first, playing this game in a city that’s so synonymous with crime is the most NFL thing to ever happen. Players on both sides are on the record saying that they won’t let their families come and have been told to stay in their rooms for their safety. Godell is a punk. Anyways. The Eagles are in a weird spot. Through 11 games last year, they were 10-1 and looked like they were a sure thing to play in their second consecutive Super Bowl. They proceeded to go 1-6 down the stretch and got blown out by the Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend. The Packers, on the other hand, were just 3-6 through 9 but went 6-2 down the stretch to squeak into the playoffs at 9-8. After demolishing Dallas on Wild Card Weekend, they lost a close one to the 49ers in the Divisional round. All of this is to say the Eagles and Packers were going in opposite directions as the 2023 season wrapped up. This should be a pretty good game, and since I ended up with Jordan Love in my first fantasy draft of the year, I’m rolling with the Packers to cover and win. Pick: Packers
PIT @ ATL -3: This is a battle of veteran QB’s on new teams. Russell Wilson is washed and Kirk Cousins is coming off a major achilles injury. I’ll take Cousins and the Falcons to win this one at home and cover the 3-point spread. I will say that I’m down low in on the Falcons this year. I’m not comparing Kholes Cash Kirk to Tom Brady, but the 2024 Falcons are giving me 2020 Buccaneers vibes. They have a good roster that was simply undercut by abysmal QB play last year the same way the 2019 Bucs were sabotaged by the Crab Leg King, Jameis Winston. I think the Falcons, assuming Kirk is healthy, will win the NFC South with Baker and the Bucs taking a step back this year.
MIN @ NYG +2: Sam Darnold is at the helm for the Vikings and is headed back to his old stomping grounds in East Rutherford looking to prove he can play in this league and be more than a bridge QB for Minnesota. The Giants have a quasi-bridge QB of their own in Daniel Jones. Sure, they drafted him and are paying him like he’s elite, but he’s been nothing but bad outside of his monster 2022 walk year. Hell, even though he’s slated to make $40M this year, the Giants, ON HARD KNOCKS, tried like hell to move up in the draft and pick a QB to replace him. Something feels off with the Giants and I think they’re probably more interested in positioning themselves for a top 3 pick in the 2025 NFL draft than winning games this year, so I’m picking the Vikings to cover. Pick: Vikings
JAX @ MIA -3: The Dolphins are like a less successful version of the Bills, who are a less successful version of the Bengals who are a significantly less successful version of the Chiefs. 2024 will be the third year in a row the Dolphins have run it back with the same cast of coaches, QB, and playmakers despite not winning a single playoff game. The Bills do this every year with Josh Allen and co, but at least they win a playoff game or two before running into the Bengals or Chiefs. The Jags took a huge step backward in year two under Doug Peterson in a season that saw Trevor Lawrence battle injuries throughout. I’ll take the Dolphins to win this one since it’s week one and everyone is healthy, but my larger point about running it back with the same guys/system this year is something that’ll be watched very closely all season. Pick: Dolphins
NE @ CIN -8.5: I’m genuinely curious what the spread on this would had been if Drake Maye was starting for the Pats. Jerrod Mayo didn’t give us that option, instead sticking with journeyman bridge QB Jacoby Brissett, which is a bummer for everyone outside Brissett. The Bengals are in a Super Bowl or bust year and, assuming Chase gets his new deal and plays, have all of the pieces in place to get back to the SB and hoist the Lombardi. Even though they are historically slow starters, I can’t see this lowly Patriots offense being able to score enough points to keep up with even a rusty Joe Burrow. Pick: Bengals
ARI @ BUF -6: If the Bills don’t reach the Super Bowl this year, there are going to be some MASSIVE changes in Orchard Park. They’ve won the division each of the last four seasons and made the AFC Championship Game in 2020, but have not been back since. Every year they make some changes to the window dressing but have stuck with Sean McDermott as HC and, obviously, Josh Allen behind center. The Cardinals, conversely, are an absolute afterthought. Sure, Kyler is fun to watch and can make some electric plays, especially with his new toy Marvin Harrison Jr, but the Bills are in win-now mode and need to get off to a good start to preserve their psyche. Pick: Bills
HOU @ IND +2.5: The Texans were the darlings of the NFL last year winning their division AND a playoff game with rookie QB, and #2 overall pick, CJ Stroud. Expectations have changed drastically in just a year with this year’s team expected to compete with the big boys in the AFC. Indy also started a rookie QB last year in Anthony Richardson, but that experiment was cut short with a season-ending shoulder injury to their young signal caller in early October. I think both teams will finish above .500 this year and battle it out in the AFC South all season, but the Texans are a step ahead right now since their rookie QB played 19 games last year versus just 4 for Richardson. Pick: Texans
TEN @ CHI -4: I know the Bears are the Bears, but it sure looks like their front office knows what they’re doing. Sticking with Fields last year and trading the #1 overall pick to the Panthers so they could draft…Bryce Young…was a no-brainer at the time and looks even more so since. They snagged (expected) generational talent in Caleb Williams with the Panther’s pick and have surrounded him with great playmakers. The Titans aren’t terrible but they have a rookie HC and return Will Levis at QB who is not exactly a foundational piece at this point. I’ll take the new look bears to wow us all in week one and win easily. Pick: Bears
CAR @ NO -4: I know nothing about either of these teams beyond who their QBs are. I think Derrick Carr stinks, but he’s plenty good to beat up on Bryce Young and that dumpster fire. Pick: Saints
LVR @ LAC -3: I’m excited to see how Harbaugh and Herbert work together in LA. I’ve been beating the “why is Herbert looked at as a top-tier QB when he’s never won a playoff game and has only started one in his career” drum for a few years now, but even my cynical eye knows he was not set up to succeed by his coaches. Harbaugh is a huge improvement on the sidelines and should help Herbert realize his potential. The Raiders, conversely, are in NFL no-man land. They have no real QB, their Head Coach, Antonio Pierce, had his interim tag removed after taking over for Josh McDaniels last year, and they lost Josh Jacobs in free agency. I’m not sold on the Herbert-Harbaugh tag team, but they’ll have plenty in the tank to beat the rudderless Raiders. Pick: Chargers
DEN @ SEA -6: Does Bo Nix’s skillset actually translate to the NFL? I have my questions, but unlike the New England braintrust, Sean Payton is starting his rooking QB in week 1, so we’ll probably have our answer by Halloween. The Seahawks are sticking with Geno Smith for another year and are returning pretty much everyone from last year outside HC Pete Carroll. I don’t think this game will be high-scoring, so the 6-point spread scares me. I’ll take the Broncos to cover in a game that’s won by the first team to 20 points. Pick: Broncos
WSH @ TB -3.5: I think Jayden Daniels will be a good QB, but kicking off the season on the road in the Tampa heat against a team that won their division and a playoff game last year is not an ideal place to start. Baker Mayfield is in no danger of making the NFL Hall of Fame, but he’s an above-average starter and the Bucs are returning their entire core from last year. I’ll take the Bucs in a game that’d probably feel a little different if the game was played in the second half of the year. Pick: Bucs
DAL @ CLE -2.5: This is an interesting one. Dallas historically has no problem with the regular season, but there is a ton of negative noise around this team due in large part to Dak’s contract status. Add in the fact that their head coach is an absolute moron and Jerruh is delusional and I think things may start to fall apart in Big D this year. However, I do think they’ll beat a Cleveland team that’s starting Deshaun Watson. Pick: Cowboys
LAR @ DET -3.5: I love me a playoff rematch in Week 1. Last January old friend Matt Stafford and his preposterous veneers rolled back into Ford Field to face the Lions in their home playoff game in like 3 generations. The Lions won 24-23 and made it to the NFC Championship game. Both of these teams are returning basically everyone and have some of the best coaching stability in the entire league. I’ll take the Lions to cover at home, but this will be a great game for the whole country to watch on Sunday Night Football. Pick: Lions
NYJ @ SF -4.5: As recently as a few weeks ago, I thought the Jets had a great chance at winning the Super Bowl. Their roster is full of playmakers on both sides of the ball, but terrible QB play has undercut their chances recently. Adding a hopefully healthy Aaron Rodgers instantly makes them contenders, but word had trickled out recently that he’s become utterly intolerable and an absolute cancer in the locker room. So much for that. They will be good this year if Rodgers stays healthy, but there are a lot of good teams and very few elite teams. SF on the other hand, is elite and are the odds-on favorite to get back to the Super Bowl. Brock Purdy has shown that he’s more than a game manager, and their roster is packed with playmakers absolutely everywhere. It remains to be seen if they can get over the hump with this core, but they are two Patrick Mahomes god-like performances away from being a dynasty of their own. Give me the 49ers to cover at home. Pick: 49ers
