The 2024 Red Sox will not be a good team, but there still are a few reasons to watch.
The Red Sox are coming off back-to-back, 78-84, last-place finishes, and with spring training a mere 10 days away, it’s hard for even the most loyal fan to convince themselves the team will be any better this year. The ’23 team had a few veteran pieces, like Justin Turner, Adam Duval, and James Paxton contribute positively. None of them will be back this year. Nor will Chris Sale. So why should you watch this year? Let’s take a look.
Triston Casas
The man is fucking weird, but if he can hit like he did after the all-star break last year, nobody in Boston will give a shit. Well, some will, but those people don’t like anything different than them. In the second half, he hit .317 with a .417 OBP, smashed 15 home runs, and slugged .617, which was 117 points higher than the $30M man, Rafael Devers, slugged in all of 2023. With the departure of Justin Turner and Adam Duval, Casas will be hitting in the meat of the order all season and is poised to emerge as one of the better first basemen in the AL.
Seriously.
I just googled “AL first basemen,” and the first hit was this article that has him second behind Vladdy Jr., who only hit 1 more home run (24-23) and one point higher (.264-.263) than Casas last year. I’m not suggesting that Casas is better than Vlad Jr., but if he’s the consensus #1 first baseman in the AL, it’d be foolish to dismiss the notion that Casas will be a top-tier AL first baseman.
Brayan Bello
Much like Casas, Bello was a major reason to be optimistic about the 2023 team, and I feel comfortable saying that he delivered. For 2 months from mid-June through mid-August, Bello was far and away the best pitcher in the Sox rotation. He ended the season with a 4.24 ERA across 157 innings, which are pedestrian numbers, but the flashes were there, and he finished the season healthy. If Bello can build on his ’23 campaign and avoid faltering down the stretch, there’s no reason to think he won’t again be generating all-star buzz in June and maybe snag a few Cy Young votes this year.
Developing young, controllable, pitchers is the key to building a winning team, and if Bello proves to be a #1 or #2, the rebuild will be well on its way.
The Re-Alligned Outfield
Alex Verdugo is a Yankee and Adam Duval is still a free agent meaning 2/3 of last season’s outfield will not be wearing a Red Sox uniform on opening day this year. Duval’s power will be missed but at 35 he’s already showing signs of breaking down, so unless he comes back to Boston on a cheap deal, there’s no reason to think he’ll be back. That opens the door for the youth movement. Jarren Duran has played 193 games for the Red Sox over the last 3 seasons and seemed to find his way last year, unlike his first two stints in Boston. He’s a streaky hitter, for sure, but he did end up hitting .295 with a .346 OBP in 102 games (362 plate appearances) last year while adding in 28 steals for good measure. He’s not an elite defender, but his speed and ability to get on base should be enough for him to play 140 games with the big club this year, allowing the front office to see what he truly is as an everyday player.
Twenty-three-year-old Ceddenne Rafaela also figures to be a regular in Alex Cora’s lineup this year, but we’ll get into him in the next section.
Finally, Masataka Yoshida figures to be the only holdover from last year’s outfield. 2023 was his first year playing in the Majors after a decade of success in Japan. He was a fringe all-star during the first half but fizzled down the stretch. Projecting his numbers this year is no easy task. One school of thought is that he hit the rookie wall as he adjusted to life in the big leagues and after a full offseason, he’ll be much more consistent in his sophomore campaign. The other, more pessimistic, school of thought is that the league figured him out and without some serious adjustments, he’s a lot closer to a .240 hitter than the player who was right around .300 throughout the first half. I’ll be optimistic until I have a reason not to be.
It’s hard to imagine the 2024 Red Sox outfield being an elite unit, but you also don’t have to squint very hard to envision them being entertaining.
The Farm
Finishing in last place sucks, but there can be a silver lining if the front office can use the high draft pick on a potential difference-maker. The 2020 Red Sox set the game of baseball back a decade with their ineptitude, but that mailed-in season netted them the 4th overall pick which they used on a high school shortstop named Marcelo Mayer, a player who was rumored to be the top overall pick leading up to the June draft. Mayer moved through the system quickly before experiencing the first prolonged slump of his life last year after being promoted to AA Portland. Is that concerning? Maybe. But it’s always nice to see how a prospect handles adversity before they make it to the Bigs. If Mayer can get off to a good start this season in AA, there is every reason to believe he’ll be in Boston before Labor Day.
He’s not the only top prospect Sox fans should be excited about. Ceddenne Rafaela made his MLB debut last year, playing in 28 games at second base, shortstop, and centerfield. When he was promoted to the big club, word on the street was that he is gold glove caliber at all three positions, and, as soon as he’s given a full season in Boston, he’ll be considered one of the best defenders in Major League Baseball. His bat is a bit of a question mark, but he did hit .241 with a .281 OBP in 89 plate appearances. Barring a prolonged slump, or injury, it’s safe to assume he’ll play 100+ games for the Red Sox this year.
Outfielder Roman Anthony and catcher Kyle Teel also finished the ’23 season in AA and figure to be part of the big club later this season or in 2025.
I’ll be the first to admit that this blog is written from a place of optimism regarding a team that may struggle to win 70 games, but the Sox are going to take the field 162 times this year come hell or high water, so we might as well find a few thing to keep an eye on even if the standings may not be one of them.
