JAX @ BUF -5.5: I correctly predicted the Jags would get right last week in London. They bounced back nicely from the ass whoopin’ the Texans handed them in week 3 with a 23-7 win over the Falcons who entered the contest 2-1. Unfortunately for them, though, they are going to be in need of another get-right game in week 6 because the Bills are on a fucking MISSION. They sat back quietly and let the entire NFL world blow the Dolphins all week last week after their 70-point performance against Denver in Week 3, and not one member of the Bills said a word about it. Instead, they curb-stomped Miami 48-20.
I fully expect the Jags to win their division (as of now), but the Bills are on a different planet and will cakewalk to a victory on Sunday. Pick: Bills
NYG @ MIA -12: The Giants are broken. Unlike the Bears who can start fresh next year if things go terribly for the rest of 2023, the Giants are locked in. Daniel Jones is on the books for $40M for the next 2 seasons and is quickly showing that 2022 was an aberration.
The Dolphins got destroyed in Western NY last week and will be out for blood. I hate big spreads like this and can already feel the regret in my bones, but I’ll roll with Tua and the boys in a big way here. Pick: Dolphins
NO @ NE pk: How the mighty have fallen, huh? After 2 weeks there was a ton of chatter in New England that they were actually a pretty good team and were simply the victim of a tough schedule early. Lol. They are broken and it’s starting to look like the Belichick era is all but over. If there is even a glimmer of hope, though, they need a win this week. Derek Carr is playing hurt, which is not good for Saints fans because he fucking stinks when he’s 100% healthy, and even with Kamara back from his suspension, their offense looks flat.
I’ll take the Patriots in a pick ’em, but this is not going to be a fun one to watch. Pick: Patriots
BAL @ PIT +4: I have no idea what’s going on in Pittsburgh, but it’s starting to look like they are in that vast land of NFL purgatory. Too good to get a top 5 draft pick but nowhere near good enough to be a legit contender. Too good to bench the QB and fire the coach, but not good enough to make elite teams fear you. It’s the sad reality for a lot of NFL teams, but when a franchise has the luxury of high-end QB play for 15-20 years like the Steelers (and Patriots) have had, human nature kicks in and you almost expect the next guy to pick up where the legend left off. Kenny Pickett is no Big Ben just like Mac Jones is no Tom Brady. The Ravens aren’t going to win the Super Bowl, but they are plenty good to take care of a middling team like the Steelers. Pick: Ravens
CAR @ DET -10: Vegas is fucking good, man. I’d be all in on Detroit if they were 7-point favorites and all in on the Panthers if they were 12+ point dogs, but this number is a tough call. The Lions ROLLED the Packers on Thursday Night Football last week while the Panthers lost an ugly one to the previously winless Vikings. The Lions are going to win this game, and given the extra rest they’re getting on the back of the mini-bye, I’ll take them to cover and win by 2 TD’s. I also want to get it on the record that I’m getting 2021 Bengals vibes from this team. I can’t really explain it, but I think they are plenty good to make the playoffs and have the right mix of talent and personalities to make noise in the playoffs. Goff has already played in a Super Bowl so the moment won’t be too big for him, and that whole operation seems to truly believe in themselves. Pick: Lions
HOU @ ATL -1.5: I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but I don’t understand how the Falcons are favorites. CJ Stroud has the Texans offense humming, scoring 37 and 30 points the last two weeks respectively, while Atlanta is STRUGGLING offensively. I’m sure Stroud will hit the proverbial Rookie Wall at some point this year, and the Texans will probably end up picking in the top half of the draft, but those problems will pop up after Halloween. This week is more of the same for the Texans who will cover EASILY. Pick: Texans
TEN @ IND +2.5: The final score of the last two Titans games has been 27-3. Week 3 was a blowout loss to the Browns while week 4 was a blowout win over the Bengals. What does that mean? The Titans are schitzo. The Colts, however, have been pretty consistent even when Anthony Richardson missed a week. I’ll take the Colts to cover, but I’d stay away from this game with real money simply because the Titans do have the ability to turn it up, it’s just so inconsistent and random. Pick: Colts
CIN @ ARI +3: Cincy has to win this, right? Seriously. The Cardinals are better than expected, but the Bengals should have no real problem with them, right? RIGHT? I don’t know, man. I know Joe Burrow is not 100% healthy, but that team looks dead in the water. If someone woke up from a 10-year coma and was not given any context, they’d take one look at the Bengals and say “same ole Bengals.” That’s why I’m going with the Cardinals here. They beat the shit out of Dallas two weeks ago before a severe reality check in San Francisco last week, so one would imagine they’re hungry all over again and are licking their chops at this hobbled and unconfident Bengals team that’s coming to town.
PHI @ LAR +4: The Rams have surprised me so far this year. I thought they were going to be terrible, but Stafford is showing all of us that he still has some left in the tank, and their defense is doing enough to keep them in most games. That said, Philly is on a different level. I think the Eagles cover and pull away late in a game that’s interesting for 3 quarters. Pick: Rams
KC @ MIN +3.5: The Chiefs have not been as dominant this season, so far, as they have been in years past. They absorbed the loss of Tyreek Hill last year, but after losing a few more pass catchers this offseason, the Kansas City offense is looking conspicuously mortal. Meanwhile, Kohl’s Cash Kirk finally notched one in the win column last week against a bad Panthers team in an ugly affair that got absolutely no screen time on Red Zone, thankfully. KC may be coming back down to earth a bit, but the Vikings are still looking up at even mediocre teams. Pick: Chiefs
NYJ @ DEN -2.5: Grudge match game. Sean Peyton took unnecessary shots at Nathaniel Hackett over the summer about the way he ran the Broncos as their HC last year. Hackett is now running a Jets offense that was supposed to feature Aaron Rodgers under center but is now rolling with the MILF Hunter. I actually liked what I saw from Wilson last week in a close loss to the Chiefs, so I’m going with them to squeak one out in Denver against a Broncos team that may be riding a little too high after a great comeback against a bad Bears team last week. Pick: Jets
DAL @ SF -3.5: I’m a big believer in this 49ers squad. Brock Purdy is the guy Shannahan has been lusting after ever since he realized Jimmy Garoppolo can’t stay healthy. He’s better than a game manager but understands he’s not the focal point of this offense. He distributes the ball well, doesn’t make dangerous throws, and seems to be very well-liked by his teammates. Ironically, Dak Prescott is the polar opposite of those things. He turns the ball over all the time, thinks he’s elite and is not very well-liked by anybody. SF puts a good beatdown on Dallas in a game the Cowboys have had circled on their calendar since the schedule came out. Pick: 49ers
GB @ LVR -1: Hell of a Monday Night Matchup, lol. The Raiders are not good. Josh McDaniels has not been able to bring the same offensive magic he had in New England to the Strip and is probably going to be fired the Monday after their last game in January. The Packers are not world-beaters, but they’re a better team and have a better quarterback than the Raiders, so I’m picking them to win a terrible game that I won’t watch more than 4 minutes of. Pick: Packers
