Two things before we get into this week’s picks. First, I went 12-4 last week and absolutely nailed most of the games for what it’s worth. Second, we have enough games under our belt this year for me to actually be funny in these writups, so enjoy.
DET @ GB +1.5: It feels weird to say this, but the Lions kinda fuck. They rolled into Arrowhead week 1 and pissed on the Chiefs Super Bowl celebration (side note, how pathetic are the “banners” the Chiefs hang for championships. They need to take notes from the Patriots), lost in OT to the Seahawks, a playoff team from last year, in week 2 before rolling over the Falcons last week. They came into the season liking the smell of their own farts, if you will, and have delivered so far. Factor in their dogshit division, and this team may win 12 or 13 games.
The Packers stomped all over the Bears in week 1, which means about as much as anything Dr. Fauci has ever said, then lost to the Falcons in week 2 before barely squeaking one out against a vastly overrated Saints team that lost their QB during the game last week. Jordan Love looks pretty good, but the Packers have played 3 bad teams, so it’s hard to draw any kind of conclusions thus far.
I think the Lions win an ugly one on Thursday Night and keep their momentum rolling. Pick: Lions
ATL @ JAX -3: What is happening to the Jags? They got steamrolled by the Kansas City Machine in week 2, which is an excusable loss, but losing getting blown the FUCK out against the Texans is quite worrisome, even when taking into consideration that CJ Stroud has looked every bit deserving of being the #2 overall pick. Trevor Lawrence looks a lot more like Mac Jones than he does Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, and their defense is getting shredded weekly.
Atlanta was a surprise 2-0 team but had a bit of a reality check last week against the aforementioned Lions. I still like what they are building in Atlanta, short of the QB (which I assume they will address in the draft next April), but I have to believe the Jags will wake up this week and put it on Atlanta in the proverbial “get right” game. I will say this, though, if the Jaguars lose this game, things will get prettttty tense down there in Duval County. Pick: Jaguars
PIT @ HOU +3: How the hell does Vegas pull a line on this game? The Texans slapped the shit out of the Jags last week in a shocker while the Steelers won a game against the Raiders that was full of turnovers and poor coaching decisions from their opponent. I have no idea how this one is going to go, but I’m not a Kenny Pickett fan, and only mustering up 23 points against an objectively bad Las Vegas team that turned it over 3 times is not helping his cause. Give me the Texans to cover at home and probably win. CJ Stroud looks like a legit NFL QB which is remarkable given the situation and where he went to school. Pick: Texans
LAR @ IND -1: This is another instance of two meh teams facing off. If Richardson was healthy I’d like the Colts at home, but as of 9:02 AM on Thursday, September 28, we have no definitive news. I’ll take the Rams to cover because I believe in their whole operation more than I do in the Colts. I can’t see either team scoring a ton of points, and I’m envisioning a very “Thursday Night Football”-esque feel to this game. Pick: Rams
MIN @ CAR +3.5: Holy shit are there a lot of uninspiring matchups this week, and this is for sure one of them. The Vikings used up a decade’s worth of good luck last year just to lose to the Giants on Wild Card Weekend. This year they stink, sitting at 0-3 after losing to the Bucs (gross), Eagles, and Chargers last week in a game somebody had to win. The Panthers also sit at 0-3, but this is where they were expected to be with a rookie Quarterback and a new regime in town. Bryce Young looks like he’s going to play which is good not only for the Panthers but also for America as we won’t be subjected to another week of Andy Dalton. This game, like the two above, will not be a fun one to watch and probably won’t get too much screen time on Red Zone. Give me the Panthers to get their first win of the season, and to officially put everyone in Minneapolis on the hot seat (or trading block). Pick: Panthers
TB @ NO -3: Another doozie. I don’t like Derek Carr, but he’s better than Jameis Winston, who will be under center for the Saints this week due to Carr’s injury. Baker Mayfield is no prize, either, but I trust him more than I trust Jameis. I’ll take the Bucs to cover, but this will be a low-scoring game. The Saints defense is legit so I can’t see the Bucs mustering more than 23-ish points, a number that includes at least 7 freebies they’ll get courtesy of Mr. Crablegs-Winston. Pick: Bucs
WSH @ PHI -7.5: lol. Pick: Eagles
MIA @ BUF -3: This is the game of the week. In fact, I can’t believe it’s a 1:00 PM kickoff. This game should be prime time. Miami looked unstoppable last week hanging 70 on the Broncos, but, hunnie, this ain’t the Broncos they’re facing Sunday in Orchard Park. The Bills stumbled out of the gate losing to the Jets on opening night, but have brought 2 average-at-best teams to the woodshed the last two weeks. Before the season, most had the Bills winning the division with the Dolphins fighting for a Wild Card birth. Through 3 weeks, though, many are rethinking. I think the Dolphins stay hot this week and win in Buffalo, but I’m still in on the Bills winning the division. Tua’s health is such a wildcard that can’t be ignored. Pick: Dolphins
CIN @ TEN +2: This Joe Burrow injury/ineffectiveness is fucking killing me. I took him early in fantasy thinking he was a sure thing and that the Bengals would stay up in the rarified air that the Bills and Chiefs live in, but that’s obviously not how it has shaken out. I still think they’ll be there at the end, but he’s gotta get healthy/right QUICK. Luckily, the Titans stink and should not be too much of a challenge for the Bengals even if they’re only getting 60% of Burrow. Pick: Bengals
BAL @ CLE -3: Cleveland looked damn good last week absolutely routing the Titans (hence why I think the Bengals will win the game above) 27-3. Baltimore, on the other hand, has looked “meh” all season and lost to the Colts and their backup QB last week at home. If the Browns win this game, especially if it’s in a convincing fashion, they will officially be a contender in this humble-bloggers mind. I’ll take the Browns to cover, but there are too many variables surrounding this game for me to be even remotely confident in the pick. Pick: Browns
DEN @ CHI +3.5: The fact that Chicago is a home underdog to a Broncos team that lost 70-20 last week says all you need to know about the state of the Bears franchise. The Broncos, as an organization, are not in great shape either, but unlike the Bears, they are quasi-locked into their coach/QB setup for the foreseeable future, so they are invested in making their arrangement work. The Bears are not. A few weeks ago I mentioned how big of a gamble it was for their front office to trade down from #1 overall in May’s draft in favor of sticking with Justin Fields and banking future first-rounders. If things keep going the way they have been there will 100% be a new regime making those selections and Justin Fields will be looking for a new job come January. Things over at Halas Hall feel way off, and a loss to the Broncos will be another proverbial log on the fire. Pick: Broncos
LVR @ LAC -5: The Chargers finally won last week, despite the best efforts of their coach to fuck it up. The Raiders have an equally awful coach and will probably be without their QB this week with Jimmy G in concussion protocol. If he can’t play that means the brain trust for the Raiders consists of Josh McDaniels and Brian Hoyer. Woof. Give me the Chargers in a game that’s not particularly close. Pick: Chargers
NE @ DAL -7: The Pats won an ugly one against the Jets in a “weather game” last week in New Jersey while the Cowboys lost to the Cardinals in Glendale. I have to think Dallas will use last week’s loss as a wake-up call while I didn’t see much from the Patriots that leads me to believe they “found something” to build on in the Meadowlands. However, the Pats do have a good defense, Dak likes to turn the ball over, and the Cardinals ran roughshod on the Cowboys supposedly daunting defense last week. I’ll be a homer once again and take the Patriots to cover. Pick: Patriots
ARI @ SF -14: I don’t like these big spreads, but I have so much confidence in this San Fran team I’m tempted to take the bait. The Cardinals beat Dallas last week, but, as Jamie Fox and Al Pacino told us 25 years ago…any given Sunday. I truly can’t see the stars aligning two weeks in a row, especially since the 49ers don’t turn the ball over like Dallas does. I’ll be a sucker and take the points. Pick: 49ers
KC @ NYJ -10: This is gong to be ulgy. Much like last week, the spread would have to be 25+ for me not to roll with Mahomes/Kelce/Swift over the MILF Hunter and Fireman Ed. Pick: Chiefs
SEA @ NYG pk: If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a million times. Seattle is a good team that will be in the playoff hunt all year and could make a bit of noise in the playoffs. The Giants are the Vikings 2.0. Overachieved last year and have come crashing back to earth. Give me the Seattle to win this one by a TD or more. Pick: Seattle
