Last week stunk. This week will probably stink, but let’s go.
SF @ SEA +3.5: The 49ers defense is so damn good they’ve been to the conference championship game twice and a Super Bowl in the last 3 seasons with Jimmy “so average and such a game manager it hurts” Garoppolo at quarterback. “Glass” Jimmy is hurt (again) and their third string QB is questionable. It doesn’t matter. That defense will make things miserable for Geno and that Seattle team that feels like it’s coming back to earth a bit. I don’t think San Fran will put up 30+ this week, but they have PLENTY, even without Debo, to easily cover this. Pick: 49ers
IND @ MIN -4.5: I don’t get this Vikings team. Are they good? Are they average? Are they slightly below average despite their record? Their three losses this year are to the 1) Eagles 2) Cowboys and…the Lions. They beat the Bills, Patriots Jets, and Dolphins, all of whom were playoff teams when they squared up with Minnesota. Yet, last week, they got beat up by the Lions and are only 4.5-point favorites, at home, against a mess of a team that has no quarterback and is coached by an ESPN analyst. I’ll take the Vikings to cover here simply because they have to. If they don’t, there will be some serious questions in Minneapolis. Pick: Vikings
BAL @ CLE -3: Game 3 for Deshaun always feels like the spot he’ll shake his rust off. Lamar (probably) won’t play for the Ravens, and since he’s their entire offense, I don’t have high expectations for Baltimore. It won’t look like a finished product for the Browns but it will show signs of life. It also helps that they know they don’t have to score 30 to win. Pick: Browns
MIA @ BUF -7: This is a tough spread here. The Dolphins are riding a 2-game losing streak, including a BAD loss to the Chargers on national TV last week. This week, their consolation gift is a date with the Bills who look to have found themselves. The big question here is whether the Dolphins have the ability to regroup and make a late-season playoff push or will they mail it in and look to get right next week against the Packers in South Florida? If the Dolphins had won last week, I’d have taken them to cover here and potentially win. Instead, they got shut down on offense and shredded on defense, all while bringing their own heaters to…Los Angeles. They feel soft and I think they get stomped in Orchard Park. Pick: Bills
ATL @ NO -4: Trash teams playing a trash game, yet both teams are still very much in the playoff hunt. Blows my mind how bad that division is. I’ll take the Falcons here for one reason and one reason only. I know Andy Dalton is a twat and I have no idea if Desmond Riddler is any good. I’ll roll with the unknown over Andy Dalton all day every day and twice on Sunday. Lol. Pick: Falcons
PHI @ CHI +8.5: I’ve been converted by the Eagles. I keep picking them to slip up and they roll. Probably going to fuck me here, but I’m in on them (until the playoffs or against Dallas next week). Pick: Eagles
DAL @ JAX +4.5: Jacksonville played well last week, so you know what that means. Also, Dallas played down to a bad Texans team last week so you know they will come out hungry. Cowboys by a gazillion. Pick: Cowboys
DET @ NYJ -.5: The Jets QB situation is a mess. Mike White has played well but is a hurting puppy, and his backup is none other than the MILF hunter who’s probably been spending more time fucking his mom’s friends than studying his playbook since his benching. The Lions, on the other hand, are “for real” in a “we are not a doormat anymore and can actually score with the big boys but will still finish at or around .500” way which is such a massive improvement for that franchise. I’ll take the Lions in a close game. Pick: Lions
PIT @ CAR -3: I have no idea. I don’t think the Panthers are good but they are riding a 2-game winning streak. The Steelers have no QB even when Pickett is healthy, but now that he’s banged up, they have to go with Mitchie Teakettles. I’ll take the Panthers to keep it…rolling…and cover at home. Pick: Panthers
KC @ HOU +14: I hate these massive spreads. The Chiefs will win this game handily, but after their defensive performance against an equally as powerful offense in Dallas last week, I can’t write off the Houston defense. Moreover, they only lost to the Browns the week before because their offense coughed up the ball and allowed THREE defensive scores. The game is indoors and Pat Mahomes gets Hardman and Tony back so I’ll go with the Chiefs, but I would stay the fuck away from this game with real money. 14 points are just too much. Pick: Chiefs
NE @ LVR +1: The Patriots offense is setting professional football back 50 years. They can’t move the ball and rely on their defense to not only keep the other team in the teens but also force turnovers and set up short fields. The Raiders seem to have more talent than the Patriots but there’s just something missing there, and their QB has a turnover fetish. Moreover, Derrick Carr is the kind QB that Bill eats for lunch. I think the Raiders will turn it over a few times, and the Patriots offense will do just enough to win. Pick: Patriots
ARI @ DEN -3: Another matchup of bad teams. My hate for Russell Wilson is well documented, but I hate him so much I’ll expand upon it again. He is a fucking douchebag with severely declining skills. His teammates hate him, I’m sure his coaches hate him, and everyone outside of Ciara thinks he’s a tool. Do you know who is the opposite of those things? Colt McCoy. Super likable dude that’s been in the league for 13 years and I’ve never heard a single bad thing about him. Skill-wise, he’s a known commodity. Average arm, a good head on his shoulders and has embraced his role as a game manager. I think those qualities are enough to beat that dumpster fire of a Broncos team. Pick: Cardinals
TEN @ LAC -3: Justin Herbert lives rent-free in my head. I’ve been beating the “Herbert is vastly overrated” drum all season, but last week he whipped out his hog and put on a show against the Dolphins on national TV. This week he gets a limping Titans team who desperately needs a win, at home. Unlike many “home” games the Chargers play, they should actually have more fans in attendance than the opposition since the Titans are not a team that “travel well.” I’ll take the Chargers to cover, but this is more of an indictment of the Titans than it is support for the Chargers. Also, that Vrabel “hot seat” talk is about to get. cranked waaaaaay up after this game. Pick: Chargers
CIN @ TB +3.5: The Bucs stink and Cincy is rolling. Bengals by a bazillion. Pick: Bengals
NYG @ WSH -4.5: These teams are so even it’s not even funny. So much so that they tied in their first matchup two weeks ago which, coincidentally, was the last game the Commanders played (they had a bye last week). I’ll take the Giants simply because I don’t think home-field matters in this matchup, nor do i think the Commanders are 5 points better than the Giants. Pick: Giants
LAR @ GB -7: I can almost assure you I won’t watch more than 20 seconds of this game unless there are MAJOR fantasy implications for my teams. If there are fantasy implications, they will almost certainly center around Christian Watson. And if they do center around the rookie wide receiver, I’ll need him to put up a big number. And if I need him to put up a big number, I need Green Bay to score a bunch of points. And if Green Bay puts up a bunch of points they will cover, so I’m taking the Packers as a preemptive attempt to put good juju into the universe for my fantasy team. Pick Packers
