The Thanksgiving slate is why gambling is such a fickle bitch. I called the Lions covering but ultimately lost to a better team correctly, so the day started 1-0. I had Dak and the Cowboys rolling the Giants, which they did, but they let up a garbage time TD to make it an 8-point game and thus the Giants covered the 8.5-point spread by a half-point. Bullshit. Then the officials royally fucked the Patriots on the 1) Hunter Henry TD reversal, 2) missed holding call on the kickoff return for a TD, and 3) the missed blatant facemask on Mac. Those bad calls are easily a 10-point swing and, if called correctly, I’d have won that game, too :-D.
Anyways.
DEN @ CAR +1.5: My hate for Russell Wilson is well documented on this well-read blog. I think his decision-making is atrocious, his physical tools are clearly in decline, and there are rumblings that his overall douchebagness is starting to rub his teammates the wrong way. Shocking. Add in the fact that his coach is clearly overmatched on a weekly basis, and you’d think I’d pick against him every week out of principle. But the Panthers are a rudderless ship. They’re going back to the Sam Darnold well, and that’s not a place any team wants to be. This game is at home, and Denver has the classic “west coast(ish) team traveling east for a 1:00 kickoff dynamic at play, too, but I just can’t see the Broncos losing this one. I’d be more than happy to mark this pick as a loss tomorrow morning, but I’ll…ride with Russ…that hurt to type and pick Denver. Pick: Broncos
ATL @ WSH -4: Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders are rolling while the Falcons team is better than expected but deeply flawed. Atlanta won last week against the Bears but hasn’t won consecutive games this year since weeks 3 & 4, the second of which came against the Browns who stink. I don’t think the Commanders are legit contenders, but they are cooking with gas right now and will keep it going today. I don’t see a blowout, but I’m confident the Commanders will cover the 4 points. Pick Commanders
HOU @ MIA -14: BIG SPREAD ALERT! I repeat BIG SPREAD ALERT! Miami is good and Houston stinks and is rolling out a new QB this week after the Davis Mills experiment finally came to an end with his benching this week. This goes without saying, but I’d stay the FUCK away from this game with real money because of the two-TD spread, but we pick ’em all here, so I’m going with the Texans to cover. A new QB must mean a few new offensive wrinkles they have baked into the game plan that are not on film. No way the Texans win, but they cover. Pick: Texans
CIN @ TEN +1: If both teams were at full health, I’d take Cincy to not only win but win by a good margin. But Burrow is without Chase and Mixon, his top two weapons. The Titans have won 7 of their last 8, with their only defeat coming to the Chiefs, who are going to moonwalk to their second Lombardi in the last 4 seasons. The Titans cover here in a close game. Pick: Titans
CHI @ NYJ -7: RIP to the Milf Hunter. After last week’s performance on the field and in front of the microphone, Zach Wilson is lucky if the fat bitch at the end of the bar would let him smash, never mind his mom’s hot friends. Despite the QB change, the Jets are still 7-point favorites against a Bears team that features a banged-up Justin Fields. I like the Jets defense, but I’m not sure if they will be able to put points on the board offensively. I’ll take the Bears to cover in an ugly game. Pick: Bears
no Justin Fields. I’ll take the Jets to cover.
TB @ CLE +3.5: Brady is looking to fuck Instagram models and make another Super Bowl, and with Giselle out of the picture, the Cleveland Browns are NOT going to get in his way. Pick: Brady Buccaneers
BAL @ JAX +3.5: Lamar and the Ravens roll. Pick: Ravesn
LAC @ ARI +3: I have a proclamation to make. If the Chargers lose this game can we please stop talking about Justin Herbert like he’s in the same stratosphere as Mahomes, Brady, Lamar Jackson, etc? The Chargers are 5-5 and have lost some bad games including blowouts, at home, against the Jaguars and Seahawks. Sure, Herbert can sling it but he seems to be missing that “thing” the greats have. I’ll stick with the Chargers here to cover the 3 they’re giving a bad Arizona team, but if they lose, it’s “Fire Everybody” season in Southern California, and Justin Herbert’s impending $250M+ contract will officially be in jeopardy. Pick: Chargers
LV @ SEA -4: It still blows my mind how inept the Raiders are. They have three wins this year, two against Russell Wilson and the clown car Broncos and one against the Texans. The Seahawks are on the other side of the equation. I thought they’d be marching toward a top-5 pick in the draft this year with Geno at the helm, but are 6-4 and in the playoff picture. Seattle is coming off a bye, is playing at home, and are generally a better football team than the Raiders, from the coach to the QB on down to the guy who paints the lines on the field. I expect this game to be close for 2.5 quarters, but the Raiders will do something stupid to help Seattle cover in the second half. Pick: Seahawks
NO @ SF -9: San Francisco looks to be absolutely rolling, and Andy Dalton is a bad QB. SF rolls here, and, barring a back door cover (See: Giants vs Cowboys from Thanksgiving), I don’t think the 49ers will have trouble covering the 9. Pick: 49ers
LAR @ KC -15.5: Shit. I thought the 14-point spread in the Dolphins game was a lot but this is a point and a half higher. I love what KC is doing, but I can see them getting up 2 TDs in this game and just kind of going through the motions. KC wins but the Rams cover based on this stupid-big spread. Pick: Rams
GB @ PHI -6.5: I’m not a huge believer in the Eagles. In fact, I’m pretty sure the Cowboys will win that division meaning the Eagles will play on Wild Card weekend and will be on the road to boot. The Packers look a bit lost but did beat the aforementioned Cowboys two weeks ago, and seem to have found something with Christian Watson (glad I impulsively added him in every league I play in). Give me the Packers to at least cover, and maybe win, against an overrated Eagles team. Pick: Packers
PIT @ IND -2.5: Steelers stink and it sure looks like Jeff Saturday knows what he’s doing as a head coach in beating the Raiders and losing to the Eagles by a single point in his two games at the helm. Add in the MNF spotlight, Kenny Pickett’s inability to play football at this level, and Mike Tomlin’s general malaise and I’ll confidently pick the Colts to cover easily. Pick: Colts
