With a three-game slate of games on Thanksgiving, I figured we’d break up this week’s pick ’em and do a special post for the turkey day games. And since work is slow this week and I’ve already put up Christmas lights in my office, I’ll dive deeper into each game here than I usually do in my pick ’em’s.
BUF @ DET +9.5: The Bills played a home game in Detroit last week because of that lake-effect snowstorm that dumped 6+ feet on the Orchard Park area. Despite speculation that they’d stay put in Detroit for this matchup against the Lions on a very short week, they opted to take the 1 hour and 10-minute flight back to Buffalo and prepare at their facilities. I could argue either way whether that was the right move, but I ultimately don’t think it matters much.
The Bills beat the Browns in the aforementioned Detriot home game last week, but it was not the type of dominant performance most were expecting. The Browns jumped out to an early lead and made a game of it at the end. Given the non-football-related events of the week leading up to the game, an 8-point win for the Bills is respectable, BUT it was the third-straight lackluster, non-dominant performance for a Bills team that looks very getable.
The Lions, however, had an AFTERNOON on Sunday, beating the shit out of the vastly overrated New York Football Giants in New York New Jersey. Detroit came into that game as 3-point dogs and left the Meadowlands with a 31-18 win. Jarred Goff was pedestrian but their ground game found the endzone 4 times, highlighted by Jamaal Williams’ 3 scores. That victory over the Giants was the Lions’ third in a row as their offense continues to put up points at the 6th best clip in the NFL.
Then there’s the Thanksgiving variable. The Lions play on thanksgiving every year, always at home, so they’re used to the festivities and the odd schedule. Sure, all NFL teams play a Thursday game every season, but those games kick off at 8:15 like every other primetime game, and are on a random Thursday. The 12:30 kickoff on Turkey Day is a variable that favors the Lions.
The Bills are a vastly superior team, but they seem to be in a bit of a funk. Add in the fact that they have the Patriots on the docket next Thursday, and this game against Detriot may be a loo-ahead affair. I’ll take the Bills to win, but I think Detroit hangs in there and covers the 9.5. Pick: Lions
NYG @ DAL -8.5: I know the scoreboard says the Giants are 7-3, but my eyeballs see a .500 team. They had a number of great comebacks, and grind-it-out games earlier this year, but have come back to earth a bit lately, losing to the Seahawks and Lions over the last month with a bye week and a workman-like win over the Texans between. Daboll has turned an objectively bad team into a decent squad, but with a bunch of tough division games upcoming, I’m betting the Giants don’t reach 10 wins.
Dallas turned in one of the most dominant performances we’ve seen in some time against the previously 8-1 Vikings to the tune of 40-3. Their defense consistently gets after the quarterback and, although not elite, Dak is in complete control of that offense. The only thing standing between Dallas and the Super Bowl is their asshat of a head coach.
On paper, the 8.5-point spread looks big, but in reality, I think it’s actually a few points too low. Dallas is going to roll in this game and show the Giants that the NFC East race is a two-horse showdown between Dallas and the Eagles. Pick: Cowboys
NE @ MIN -2.5: In every game, there are theoretically 4 potential outcomes. Both teams can 1) win by a lot, 2) win a close game, 3) lose a close game, or 4) get blown out. In the vast majority of cases, you can eliminate at least one of those options before kickoff. For Example, when the Patriots play the Bills next week, the Patriots blowing out the Bills is not an option. Why do I say all of this? Because this Patriots-Vikings game is one of the few where all four options are on the table. The Vikings are 8-2 but have a negative point differential which is something to behold. They win close games but when they lose, they get stomped. The Patriots offense has looked anemic, but they’ve also been playing some of the best defenses in the NFL over the past month or so. Conversely, they have put up some big numbers against bottom-half defenses this season, of which the Vikings are, ranking 29th in yards allowed (388.9), 31st in passing yards allowed (267.3), and 19th in points (23.1).
On the other side of the ball, you’d be hard-pressed to find a defensive unit that’s playing better than the Patriots. They are getting after the quarterback, creating turnovers (when they catch the ball…Devin McCourty), and are making other teams play left-handed. They are allowing 16.9 points per game which is .2 points more than the top-ranked Dallas Cowboys. They are also 4th in the NFL in yards allowed at 302.8 and 5th in the league in takeaways at 17. They make life hard for their opponent.
The Vikings offense is average. They are 13th in the league in points per game at 22.9 and are 18th in the league in yards per game at 338.5. Sure, they have Justin Jefferson who is an absolute game-wrecker, and Dalvin Cook who is a top-tier running back, but that’s evidently not enough for Kirk Cousins to get the Minnesota offense into the upper echelon.
Ultimately, I think the Vikings are frauds at 8-2 and should probably be somewhere around 6-4…which is exactly what the Patriots are. Moreover, Minnesota is only favored by 2.5 at home which means Vegas thinks this is basically a pick-em since the home team gets a customary 3 points when making the spread. Add in the ass whoopin’ they caught last week from the Cowboys and I get the feeling the air is leaking out of the Vikings balloon a bit. I think the Patriots build on their 2-game (and 5 of their last 6) winning streak and leave the Twin Cities with a hard-fought win. But, as I said at the beginning of this write-up, everything is on the table. 35-10, either way, wouldn’t surprise me, nor would a 16-13 final score. I’d stay away from this game with real money, but I’m rolling with Bill and the Patriots. Pick: Patriots
