Last week was a good week in the picks department. I went 8-6 but was sitting at 8-4 after the 4:00 games on Sunday but suffered two hard losses in the SNF and MNF games. So much so that I didn’t write a patriots recap blog. Hard times in New England.
Anyways, on to Week 8.
BAL @ TB -2: I don’t think I can explain how great it feels to type the following sentence. The Buccaneers and Lover Boy Tommy are a dumpster fire. They were 10-point favorites in Carolina last week, facing a division rival who was starting their third-string QB and were blown the fuck out. Things started out okay in Tampa Bay but have fallen off significantly over the last month and I don’t think a matchup against Lamar Jackson tonight will help them get right. In fact, I’m shocked they’re favored in this given how poorly they’ve played and how well the Ravens have played. Baltimore is only 4-3, but they’ve played a tough schedule thus far while Tampa Bay sits at 3-4 and has played a light schedule outside of Dallas and Kansas City. Thursday Night Football is always ugly, and this game will be no different, but Lamar is BY FAR the best player in this game and that’s enough to cover. Especially with Mr. Automatic Justin Tucker standing on the sidelines ready to crush hearts. Pick: Ravens
DEN @ JAX -2.5 (London): This is the “Woof Matchup of the Week.” Russ was doing high knees in the isle of the plane on the way over to London which is one of the all-time hardo moves. He is a clown. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are 2-5 but have been in every game they’ve played including last week’s loss to the Giants in which they lead at the 5:35 mark in the 4th quarter. Denver started Brett Rypien at QB with Russ sidelined with a hamstring injury that was probably a quasi-benching/mental health break. Things did not go well as they lost to the Jets 16-9. This game is in London, which is a familiar trip for the Jaguars who play one home game in Wembly every season. I’ll take the Jags and how familiar they are with the trip to cover, but this is one I’d stay the FUCK away from with real money. Pick: Jaguars
ARI @ MIN -3.5: The Cardinals are coming off a long week having played on Thursday Night, but the Vikings are coming off their bye week. I’ll call that a wash. Arizona smoked the Saints last week, but Andy Dalton threw two TD passes to the Cardinals to close out the first half which pretty much ended the game. Kirk Cousins is no world-beater, but he’s leaps and bounds better than the Red Rifle. Kyler had a good week last week, despite his outburst at coach Kingsbury that was caught on camera, but it’s easy to play with the lead. I think the Vikings figure out how to contain Kyler in the first half, which will frustrate him, and force him into a few turnovers. Vikings cover but this won’t be a blowout. Pick: Vikings
MIA @ DET +3.5: Remember when the Lions were the highest-scoring offense in the NFL? That feels like 400 years ago coming off their 6-point effort against Dallas last week and their shoutout three weeks ago against the Patriots. Tua was back for the Dolphins last week and, although he didn’t look like vintage Tua, he looked like he’s put the concussions behind him. Tua, Tyreek, and Jaylen roll this week and beat the tar out of the Lions on their home field. Pick: Dolphins
CHI @ DAL -9.5: This is a tough one due to the 9.5-point spread. I can’t imagine the Bears have fully turned the proverbial corner and will continue to be the team we saw on Monday Night against the Patriots. That version of the Bears is damn good, but, it felt like a perfect storm of timing and performance more than the new normal. Dak eased into things last week with an easy win against the Lions. Dallas has a great defense and a boring offense while the Bears have…lightning in a bottle? I’ll take Chicago to cover based on them feeling good and Dak still feeling his way back. Pick: Chicago
LV @ NO +2: The Raiders are feeling good after their 18-point drubbing of the Texans last week. I think the Saints and Andy Dalton are a lot closer in talent and ability to the Texans than they are to the Raiders, so covering the 2 points should not be an issue. In fact, the Raiders next three opponents after this game are the Jaguars, Colts, and Broncos, so if they can win this week, they’re staring at a 5-game winning streak which would put them at 6-5 and firmly in the playoff chase. They know that and are not going to let the Saints derail them. Pick: Raiders
CAR @ ATL -4.5: Let me get this straight. The Panthers blow the doors off the Bucs and are rewarded by being 4.5-point dogs the next week to their division-rival Falcons who were blown out by the Bengals last week. I get the “anomaly” factor in blowing out Tampa Bay, this is a matchup of objectively bad teams and 4.5 seems like a big spread. With all that said, I’ll go with the Falcons to cover. Mariota, as a whole, has looked decent and they have hung around in basically every game they’ve played before last week’s tough loss. The Panthers are coming off that big win but are ripe for a letdown game. Pick: Falcons
NE @ NYJ +2.5: The Jets sit at 5-2 and have won 4 in a row, but are home dogs to the Patriots who just got smoked on MNF and have a quasi QB controversy. Why you ask? The answer is Zach Wilson. He’s been bad throughout this winning streak, and his best offensive weapon had season-ending surgery on Monday. The Patriots are coming off an embarrassing loss, but named Mac the starter on Wednesday and seem to be committed to him moving forward. The Patriots cover easily in a get-right game that sees the Jets come back down to earth a bit. Pick: Patriots
PIT @ PHI -10: Big spread here in the battle for Pennsylvania. Kenny Pickett blows, and I’m not sure Mike Tomlin has any real moves he can make to give this team a spark. The Eagles had a bye last week so they will be coming into this one fresh. Of their 6 wins, the Eagles have only won by 10+ points twice, but have also won by 9 and 8 points, meaning only 2 of their games, including the season opener in Detriot, were decided by a conventional TD or less. I’ll take the Eagles here to cover, but I’d stay away from this game due to the huge spread. Pick: Eagles
TEN @ HOU +2: Titans are rolling as well as a team led by Ryan Tannehill can be rolling. They have won 4 in a row heading into this with the Chiefs on the schedule next week. I think the Titans roll here to get to 5-2 knowing they will lose badly next week. Pick: Titans
NYG @ SEA -3.0: I can’t figure out the Giants. They beat everybody but every game is a fucking grind. Conventional wisdom say they are due for a close loss as they’ve emerged victorious in every close game they’ve played. I think they hit a speedbump and lose this one by a TD given the cross-country road trip, their bye next week, and two easy wins in the Texans and Lions coming up after the bye in weeks 10 and 11. Geno and the Seahawks keep it rolling(ish). Pick: Seahawks
SF @ LAR +1.5: So the 49ers won the first matchup at Levi Stadium handily, but things have changed a bit since then. They’ve lost their last two games (Falcons and Chiefs) by two touchdowns and their once-dominant defense looked pedestrian at best. That’s not a recipe for success when Jimmy G is your quarterback. In order for the 49ers to win consistently, they have to play games in the teens and low 20s. The Rams haven’t been very good lately, either. They beat up on the Panthers in week 6, which was Carolina’s first game after firing their coach, then had their bye last week, so they’re at least rested. I’ll take the Rams here in a low-scoring game. Either way, though, one of these teams is going to “get right” while the other will be looking ahead to 2023. Pick: Rams
GB @ BUF -11: Man, Week 8 has a lot of big spreads. This makes picking games hard. Buffalo will win this game, easily I presume, but when the clock hits 0:00 in the 4th quarter, will the Bills have 12 more points than the Packers? I’m going to say yes since the last time I picked an opponent to lose but cover a huge spread against the Bills, Buffalo hung like 600 points on the Steelers. Also, Aaron Rodgers is not the type of guy to thrive in the face of adversity. He knows they’re going to get killed and will be going through the motions on SNF. Pick: Bills
WSH @ IND -3: The Carson Wentz Revenge Game…that won’t feature Carson Wentz or the man who replaced him, Matt Ryan. Taylor Heinicke will get his second straight start for the Commanders while Sam Ehlinger will get his first career start for the Colts who benched Matty Ice (lol) this week. This game will probably suck given the backups playing, but I down low like what Heinicke brings to that Commanders team, so I’ll take them to cover over a rookie making his first start. Pick: Commanders
