Another rough week last week, but all my friends that actually gamble were mysteriously absent from the group chat where they usually brag about how they “saw that coming” or “were on that” when they win, so we can assume they either lost their shirt last week or they died of Covid.
NO @ AZ -3: Ah, the weekly Thursday Night Football suck bowl. This week we get the distinct pleasure of watching either Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston lead a Michael Thomas-less Saints offense against notorious film studier Kyler Murray and the rest of Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals. Both teams are 2-4 and coming off losses and neither team has legit playoff aspirations so I’m assuming tonight’s game will stick with the theme of borderline unwatchable football on Thursday nights. I’ll take the Cardinals and Kyler’s legs over whatever the Saints are doing on offense. Taysum hill usually pops twice a year, but his first “wow” game was just a couple of weeks ago, so if history repeats itself, he’ll be quiet for another month or so before another big game after Thanksgiving. Pick: Cardinals
IND @ TEN -2.5: The Titans won the first matchup against the colts 24-17 in Indy just a few weeks ago and are coming off their bye week. This game is in Nashville, the Titans are well rested and relatively healthy while the Colts played last week and Jonathan Taylor, who is trending to play, has missed the last couple of weeks. Given all of that, I’d have thought the Titans would be bigger home favorites but as of Thursday morning, the line is Titans -2.5. If the line got up to 7 or 8, I’d pause, but I’ll take the Titans here given all the circumstances. Pick: Titans
NYG @ JAX -3: Let me get this straight. The Giants are 5-1 and are coming off wins against the Packers (in London) and Ravens over the last two weeks. Daniel Jones is playing great and the team as a whole has an undeniable swagger under new coach Brian Daboll. The Jags are coming off three straight losses, two of which were to bad teams in the Texas and Colts, yet Jacksonville is a three-point favorite? That makes no sense to me. Give me the Giants. Pick Giants
TB @ CAR +10.5: Double-digit spreads scare me, especially when the favorite lost to the fucking Pittsburgh Steelers last week after their star quarterback went to the wedding of his former team’s owner two nights before the game, then missed the walkthrough and looked like shit all game long all while cussing out his offensive line on national television. But, man, the Panthers stink. I think muscle memory kicks in for Brady and the Bucs and they cover against that dumpster fire in Charlott, but I’d stay the FUCK away from this game with real money. Pick: Buccaneers
GB @ WSH +4.5: The Packers stink right now. They barely squeaked past the Patriots three weeks ago, lost to the Giants in London, and got DUSTED by the goddamn Jets last week at home in Lambeau Field. The Redskins Football Team Commanders, however, willfully started Carson Wentz at quarterback for the first 6 games this year. On Purpose. Now Wentz is hurt and they’re playing franchise cornerstone Taylor Heinicke under center this week. Heinicke threw for almost 3500 yards and 20 TDs (15 INT) last year after taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick in week one when Fitz’s geriatric hip exploded but was deemed a worse option than Carson Wentz over the offseason. Weird. Anyways, the Packers are an average team. The losses to the New York teams, both of whom are actually good this year, are not as bad as they’d look if the games were played last year. Green Bay did take care of business against the Patriots (a bad team when they played), the Buccaneers, and the Bears, which leads me to believe they can still beat bad teams. I’ll take Aaron Rodgers to cover the 4.5 points on the road, easily. Pick Packers
DET @ DAL -7: I have to assume the 7-point spread means Dak is back, which, regardless of how Cooper Rush looked in his handful of starts, is a good thing for Dallas. Detriot was off last week, so they’ll be rested, but the last time we saw the Lions they rolled into Foxborough and were dominated by a Bailey Zappe-lead Patriots (in those sexy red throwbacks) to the tune of 29-0. Moreover, and this hurts to type, Detroit’s coach Dan Campbell makes Mike McCarthy look like Vince Lombardi. Campbell is a dingus. I think the Cowboys roll in Dak’s return and make a mockery of this one. Pick: Cowboys
ATL @ CIN -6.5: Are the Falcons good? They smoked the 49ers last week and were a bullshit roughing the passer call away from squeaking one out against the Bucs the week before. They sit at a very surprising 3-3 and with a rejuvenated Marcus Mariota under center, they seem to have found something down there in the land of strip clubs. Are the Bengals good? They have losses to Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Baltimore but have beaten the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. They certainly are not playing like the Super Bowl team they were last year, but I refuse to believe they are just a .500 team. I like Cincy to win this one, but I think Atlanta will cover. Pick: Falcons
CLE @ BAL -6.5: The Browns are not a good team. The Patriots whooped their ass last week in Cleveland without doing anything special. The Browns turn the ball over at an alarming rate and their defense got shredded by Bailey Zappe. Baltimore is no juggernaut, but they do have the most dynamic player in the league playing quarterback for them, which is all it takes to beat a bad team. I don’t like the 6.5-point spread, but I’ll still take the Ravens. I will say, though, if the Ravens lose, John Harbaugh is down low on the hot seat. Pick: Ravens
NYJ @ DEN -1.5: I hate the Broncos. Russell Wilson is insufferable, Nathaniel Hackett is the worst coach in the NFL (which is saying something), and they seem to figure out a new way to lose every week. Truly impressive. The Jets are 2-0 since the MILF hunter returned, and I don’t see them snapping their mini-wining streak this week to that disaster in Denver. Pick: Jets
HOU @ LV -7: Is Josh McDaniels on the hot seat if they lose to the 1-win Texans, who technically have a better record (1-3-1) than the Raiders (1-4)? Much like the Broncos-Raiders game a few weeks ago, I think the Raiders will come out and do what it takes to win with their season legitimately on the line. The question, though, is will they win by a TD? I think they will. Both teams are coming off a bye week, but the game is in Vegas and I think their skill position players are vastly better than what the Texans have. Pick: Raiders
SEA @ LAC -6: The Chargers…survived…the Broncos on Monday Night Football but were woefully unimpressive in the victory while the Seahawks won a grind-it-out game against the Cardinals last week. The Chargers seem to have “the guy” at quarterback in Herbert but it just hasn’t clicked yet big picture. Seriously. This kid is probably going to get $50M/year in the contract extension he signs this offseason but has not been to the playoffs yet in his career and, although he’s come up big in showdowns with Mahomes a few times, he’s also lost to some bad teams. I’d take Herbert over Mac here in New England, but I’m not sold on him being the next big thing. Anyways, I’ll take the Seahawks to cover but lose. Pick: Seahawks
KC @ SF +3: What the FUCK was wrong with the 49ers in Atlanta last week? Their “Super Bowl ready” defense got lit up and, per the usual, Jimmy G couldn’t get the offense out of the teens in terms of points. On the other hand, the Chiefs lost their showdown with the Bills but looked really good on both sides of the ball in defeat. I think San Francisco will get back on the beam and probably win their weak division, but that happens next week. Chiefs roll here. Pick: Chiefs
PIT @ MIA -7: Despite beating the Bucs last week, the Steelers are not very good. Kenny Pickett is in the same concussion protocol that Tua just emerged from which means, in the aftermath of the Tua situation, we’re probably getting Mitch Trubisky under center for the Steelers. No bueno. I’d stay away from this game with real money given the concussion and long layoff for Tua and the general shittyness of the Steelers. Seven points seems like a lot, but I’ll take the Dolphins seizing the momentum of their quarterback’s return to cover against a Pittsburgh team that may be a little full of themselves after beating what’s ostensibly a bad Tampa Bay team. Pick: Dolphins
CHI @ NE -8: Full blog coming Friday, but I fully expect the Patriots to curb-stomp the Bears even if Belichick has to take some snaps. Pick: Patriots
