WSH @ CHI -1: Another mouth-watering matchup to kick off week 6 on Thursday Night Football. The Bears lost to the Vikings last week but, after going down big early, they had the ball at the end with a chance to tie before a fumble at the Vikings 35 ended the comeback bid. The Commanders also lost on a late turnover, an interception thrown by none other than Carson Wentz, to the Titans. Both teams are under .500 and are having trouble finishing games, but only one team had their head coach flat-out (correctly) say that quarterback play is their biggest problem, and that team is the Commanders. I would stay the FUCK away from this game if I was gambling with my own money, but I have to think home-field advantage and the lack of drama in the Chicago locker room will be enough to give them a win on the short week in an UGLY game. Pick: Bears
NE @ CLE -3: Full blog coming, but a little taste here. I’m a bonafide Patriots homer, but even if I attempt to take off my Patriots-colored glasses, I can’t figure out why the Browns are 3-point favorites here. Their two wins are over the Panthers, who just fired their coach, and the Steelers, who can’t do anything on offense. The Patriots just dismantled a Lions team that lives in the same neighborhood as the Browns without breaking a sweat. I’d take the Patriots if they were 3-point favorites, so as 3-point dogs, it’s a no-brainer. Pick: Patriots
MIN @ MIA +3: The Miami quarterback situation is less than desirable. Tua was off to a great start, but after losing him, and then Teddy Bridgewater, the Dolphins can’t seem to do much on offense. There’s a chance Tua will be back this week but I’m pretty sure the Dolphins and NFL will play this one safe and give him another week or two. The Vikings are 4-1 with wins over the Packers, Lions, Saints, and Bears, with their lone loss coming in an ass-whoopin’ against the undefeated Eagles. If the Dolphins had their franchise QB, they’d be big favorites, but they don’t and the Vikings are as healthy as a team can be almost 1/3 of the way through the NFL season. I’ll take the Vikings to cover here, but I think this will be a low-scoring affair and come in easily under the 45.5 total Vegas has set. Pick Vikings
SF @ ATL +5.5: The 49ers dismantled the Panthers in Charlott last week and are staying on the east coast to prepare for their game against the Falcons in Atlanta. Jimmy G continues to be the perfect man for the job in San Francisco, taking care of the ball and making a big throw here and there. He quietly put up 253 yards and 2 TD passes last week while the defense got most of the credit. The Falcons have been in every game this year with their 7-point loss to the Bucs last week being their largest loss of the season. Marcus Mariota is not lighting the world on fire, but he, along with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Cordarrelle Patterson, has scored enough points to stay in every game they’ve played. I just think the 49ers defense will overmatch the Falcons offense and Jimmy G and Co. will put up plenty of points to cover. Pick: 49ers
TB @ PIT +8: The Bucs aren’t the Bucs of the last two years, but the Steelers Stink out loud. Their 38-3 loss in Buffalo last week would be demoralizing for any team, but when you factor in the fact that Buffalo scored 31 of their 38 points before the half and that Josh Allen watched most of the second half from the sidelines, the loss is even more embarrasing. Kenny Pickett may be the future in Pittsburgh, but he does not look like an NFL quarterback right now. The Bucs defense is still stout, ranked 6th in the league in yards/game and points/game through 5 games, three of which were against Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. Kenny Pickett has no chance. I think Tommy and the Bucs offense gets right against the Steelers in a big way. Pick: Bucs
CIN @ NO +2.5: How the mighty have fallen, huh? Cincinnati represented the AFC in the Super Bowl in February, yet find themselves in 3rd place in their own division at 2-3. Their offensive line stinks, Joe Mixon can’t get anything on the ground, and opposing defenses are double-teaming Ja’Maar Chase on almost every snap. The Saints, despite losing Jamis Winston for the last few games, are 2-3 and have been in every game this season. I have to believe the Bengals can win this game by 3 points or more. They’ve played some stout defenses thus far and are still 16th in the league in points per game. New Orleans will hang around in this, but the Bengals will be prepared for Taysum Hill which will limit their offensive attack, and I don’t think the Satints defense can keep the Bengals in check for 60-minutes. Pick: Bengals
BAL @ NYG +5.5: Former Giants Coach Bill Parcells famously said “you are what your record says you are,” which means the 4-1 Giants are good. They just beat the Packers in London for their best win of the year but did lose to the Cowboys at home in primetime the week before. The Ravens are third in the league in scoring with Lamar looking like a bonafide MVP candidate (again), but have been a bottom-half of the league defense thus far. I’ll take the Ravens covering here as the Giants, who are coming off of an emotional win on their trip to London last week, feel like their prime for a letdown. I’d like this pick a lot more if the spread was closer to 3-points, but I’m just not a true believer in the Giants despite their record. Pick: Ravens
NYJ @ GB -7: The Packers just got beat soundly by the Giants in London and now get to play the other New York team at Lambeau. Zack Wilson has looked great in his two starts this year, leading a 4th quarter comeback against the Steelers in his season debut and hanging 40 on the Dolphins last week. I don’t think the Packers are as bad as they looked in London, nor do I think the Jets are as good as they looked against the Dolphins, but I do think the Jets will cover. The magic seems to be gone in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers feels like he’s about to mentally check out while the Jets seem to have some well-deserved swagger. Pick: Jets
JAX @ IND -2.5: This AFC South showdown is the winner of this week’s “woof matchup.” The Colts are coming off the mini-bye after beating being handed the game in Denver last Thursday against the clown show Broncos. Their offense looks inept, Matt Ryan looks old, Jonathan Taylor is hurt, and Frank Reich is on the hot seat. The Jags beat these Colts 24-0 in Week 2, then followed up that performance with a dominating win against (a hurt) Justin Herbert and the Chargers in LA, but have lost two in a row since including their 31-6 loss to the Texans last week. I have no idea what to expect here against two objectively bad teams, but I’m going to go with the Jags to cover. They have shown the ability to score this year while the Colts have not. I think this will be a low-scoring game, and I’m also not sure the Jags will win, but I think they’ll cover. Pick: Jags
ARI @ SEA +3: Hand up. I didn’t think the Seahawks, specifically Geno Smith, were good at all, but they’ve been better than I expected and have put up points against everyone they’ve played this side of the 49ers. The Cardinals hung in there against the Eagles last week, but their brainiac quarterback spiked the ball on 3rd down forcing a long field goal attempt as time expired that was no good. I’d stay away from this game with real money, but I think the Cardinals will cover. Kyler seems to account for 10-points himself every week, and although they didn’t win last week against Philadelphia, they hung in there and that will give them a confidence boost. Pick: Cardinals
CAR @ LAR -10.5: Much like their opponent in last year’s Super Bowl, the Rams have looked pedestrian this year. The Panthers just fired their coach and their starting QB is out and will miss some time with an ankle injury. If Baker Mayfield was playing, I’d pick the Panthers to cover in one of those “nobody believed in us, let’s go win one for our new coach” games, but with a backup quarterback and a new coach, I think the Rams will dig deep, shake off their Super Bowl hangover, and show that they’re not dead yet. The 10.5 point spread is a lot, and I’d probably pass on betting on this, but I’ll take the Rams in this. Pick: Rams
BUF @ KC +2.5: The game of the week! Buffalo went to WORK on the Steelers last week and looks to be firing on all cylinders, although any performance against Pittsburgh has to be taken with a larger grain of salt. Kansas City squeaked one out against the Raiders on Monday Night Football in a game in which they may have been looking ahead to this showdown. Pat Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his career, which is a storyline ESPN and the NFL Network will for sure beat into the ground all week, but is also something that’s probably not lost on Mahomes. I’ll take the Chiefs in this. Buffalo won at Arrowhead in the regular season last year but lost a thriller in OT in the playoffs. I think Kansas City knows this game may decide home-field throughout the playoffs, so they’ll be treating this like a playoff game. The Bills lack of a run game will also be on display in this one the way it was in Baltimore and against the Dolphins. Pick: Chiefs
DAL @ PHI -5: Philly has to win this one, right? If they beat Dallas to move to 6-0, they are almost certainly going to get to 10-0 with the Steelers, Texans, Commanders, and Colts up next on the Schedule. Conversely, if Dallas wins, they move into first place in the NFC East and will get the Eagles again, in Dallas, on Christmas Eve in a game that Dak should play in. Cooper Rush has played well for Dallas during Dak’s absence but make no mistake about it, Dallas is winning these games with their defense. This game will be close, but I think Philly figures out a way to win at home. That said, I’m taking Dallas to cover because of that defense. Pick: Dallas
DEN @ LAC -5: Chargers by a million. Denver stinks, their QB is looking like he’s washed up, and their coach is a deer in headlights. Justin Herbert is looking like himself again after a dud against the Jaguars which can be attributed to his rib injury. I’m not exaggerating when I say I’d take the Chargers even if they were favored by 2 TDs. This Denver team is just that bad. Nathaniel Hackett may be fired at halftime of this game.
