I sure hope nobody is secretly stalking this blog and putting down hundreds of dollars on my picks over the last few weeks because, man, have I been average. Last week I was one game under .500 with a push mixed in after being one game over .500 in Week 3 which also featured a push.
With the MLB regular season coming to an end, I’m going to lean into some season wrap-up content for the Red Sox and a full Playoff bracket/breakdown/prediction for the teams that didn’t stink, so I’m going to skip the full Thursday Night breakdown this week and include it here.
IND @ DEN -3.5: These teams are terrible. Coming into the season, both had legit Super Bowl aspirations that came along with their new quarterbacks. Things haven’t gone as planned for either with the Colts sitting at 1-2-1 and Denver at 2-2 entering Thursday Night Football. Both teams have struggled to move the ball and score points with any consistency all year, although Denver’s defense does appear to be pretty good. This game is going to be sloppy no matter when it’s played, but when you add the Thursday Night Football factor, this game could be borderline unwatchable. Good thing it’s on Amazon Prime and a lot of people can’t watch anyways. I’ll take Denver, at home, with the elevation, a hobbled Jonathan Taylor, and that defense to cover but this game could be a 14-9 affair. Pick: Denver
Bonus Bet: Take the under (42.5) in this. Sloppy football on a short week between two bad teams. #TakeTheUnder
NYG @ GB (London) -8: I love these London games as long as my team isn’t playing in them. Being able to put on real NFL football at 9:30 is enough to put a smile on this crusty old man’s face. Daniel Jones is nursing an ankle and isn’t particularly good even at 100% while Rodgers seemed to find his old form in the second half against the Patriots last week. Eight points is a lot, especially given the travel and expanded media commitments each team undoubtedly has leading up to this international game but I think the Green Bay defense is going to shut that Giants team down considering they only have to pay attention to #26. With so many variables surrounding this game, I’d probably stay away given the high spread, but we pick every game here. Pick: Packers
PIT @ BUF -14: The Bills haven’t looked right since Week 2 when they destroyed the Titans, following up that effort with a low-scoring loss to the Dolphins and a come-from-behind win against the Ravens last week. Pittsburgh is making a QB switch this week and has looked generally unimpressive this year. The Bills have basically no running game, and it seems like defenses have found a way to keep their passing game in check, but the Steelers have a rookie making his first start under center. I’m going to pick the Steelers in this due to the 14-point spread. That’s just to much considering how the Bills have looked recently. Pick: Steelers
ATL @ TB -8.5: A pair of 2-2 teams playing a divisional game with an 8.5-point spread? Again, seems like a lot of points given how both teams have played through 4 games. Things just don’t look right in Tampa Bay, and with Tom’s divorce news leaking this week, I have to think Brady’s full buy-in is not there and the margin for error is not as high as it’s been the last few years with the Bucs. I’ll take the Falcons, who have put up points in every game this year, to lose but cover. Pick: Falcons
HOU @ JAX -7.5: I drank the Jags CoolAid last week and was rewarded with a huge dud against the Eagles, although Trevor Lawrence did find the endzone twice, while the Texans continued to be “pesky” but unable to win. I’ll probably regret this, but I do think the Jags have something brewing in Jacksonville while the Texans are just not a good football team despite hanging around in all of their games. I’ll take the Jagas this week, but if they don’t cover, I’ll take their opponent for the rest of the season. Pick: Jaguars
CHI @ MIN -7: The Bears stink. Their passing offense is nonexistent which is not a recipe for success in NFL in 2022. Justin Fields is running for his life out there in an offense that looks worse than the Trubisky-led Steelers attack we were forced to watch for 3.5 weeks. The Vikings are no world-beaters either, but short of their ass whoopin’ in Philadelphia in Week 2, they’ve put up mid-20s points in each game and are 3-1. I’ll go with the Vikings in a relatively easy win, but the Kirk Cousins factor cannot be overlooked here. I’d love the Vikings at -5, but I’m less confident at -7. But, if you’ll refer to the first sentence of this game preview, you’ll remember the Bears stink, so the pick is Minnesota. Pick: Vikings
DET @ NE -3: Full write-up coming on this one, as there has been and will be for every Patriots game. The Lions can score. The Patriots are playing either the corpse of Brian Hoyer or a rookie from Western Kentucky in his first start at quarterback. But the Lions also give up points like they’re not even trying. I’m going with Lions in this one. Even if Goff can’t carve up the Patriots like he did to the Seahawks last week, I’m not confident the Patriots can score with their third-string quarterback. I’d love to be wrong on this, but I’m going Lions here. Pick: Lions
Friday afternoon update. I did my “research” for the game write-up, and this Lions defense STINKS, historically. Detriot will also be without (or with a very limited) D’Andere Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown, their top running back and receiver, on offense which will surely hurt. I’m flipping the pick to the Patriots. Pick: Patriots
MIA @ NYJ +3.5: Give me the Goddamn Jets. Teddy Bridgewater stinks, and I kind of like what I saw from Zach Wilson last week against the Steelers. Losing Tua limits the impact of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle which is what makes the Dolphins hard to defend. Also, it feels like the loss of Tua and the controversy around the handling of his concussion may take a bit of wind out of their sails. I think they will be fine moving forward, but this seems like a game they don’t bring the energy they need to cover against a 2-2 Jets team that seems to be feeling themselves at home. Pick: Jets
SEA @ NO -5.5: Geno! Geno! Geno! New Orleans lost a nail-biter in London last week so they’re not only coming off a loss but one hell of a trip. Geno outdueled Jarrod Goff and the Lions last week in a thriller (what a sentence). I was not high on Seattle at all, but the sample size of quality play from Geno is now enough to be taken into consideration. Andy Dalton looks to be getting the start again this week so the ceiling on the Saints offense is low. I’d probably take Seattle straight up, but getting 5.5 points on the road makes this a no-brainer. Pick: Seahawks
TEN @ WSH +2.5: This is the “woof” game of the week. Carson Wentz vs Ryan Tannehill really gets the blood flowing. I’ll keep this short. Both QBs stink, but the Titans have a competent head coach and a great running back while the Commanders have a buffoon for a head coach and an average run game. The Titans also have some recent success and a still realistic shot at their division given how the rest of the AFC South has fared thus far. I’ll take the Titans pretty easily here but I’ll do my best to not watch even one second of this game. Pick: Titans
LAC @ CLE +3: The Chargers are good, but lack a competent coach. The Browns are painfully average but also lack a competent head coach and are playing with a game manager at QB. Justin Herbert is the difference maker in this game. He is a pleasure to watch and, when healthy (which he seems to be after a rough week against the Jaguars following his rib injury in Week 2 against the Chiefs), can throw the ball all over the field at will. Moreover, the Browns haven’t faced a quality opponent yet (Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons) so the Chargers will be a reality check for the 2-2 Browns. Chargers cover and win by double digits in a game that’s over by halftime. Pick: Chargers
DAL @ LAR -4.5: Is Cooper Rush good? Not really, but that Dallas Defense is no joke. The Rams seem to have a pretty severe Super Bowl hangover and Matthew Stafford is locking in on Cooper Kupp in a way that has Lions pulling a Leo remembering how he locked on Calvin Johnson for a decade. I think this game will be close with the Cowboys playing with a ton of confidence and the Rams generally unenthusiastic. Pick: Cowboys
SF @ CAR +6.5: The 49ers are looking exactly like last year’s NFC Championship Game and 2019 Super Bowl participants. Strong run game, the ULTIMATE game manager at QB, and a stout defense. Carolina stinks and is looking to make coach/QB changes just 4 weeks into the season. The 49ers will earn another workman-like win here and cover. Pick: 49ers
PHI @ ARI +5.5: New rule. We don’t pick against the Eagles until they lose. I also despise Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, so this new rule feels even better this week. Eagles roll and AJ Brown has a good week for my fantasy team. Please. Pick: Eagles
CIN @ BAL -3: This will be a fun one on Sunday Night Football. Division game between two teams that have been up and down so far. After watching Lamar rebound from a tough loss in Miami by shredding the Patriots in Week 3, I’m confident he’ll rebound from another tough loss last week to hang 35+ on the Bengals. The Bengals revamped their offensive line this offseason and, somehow, seem to have made it worse. Burrow is a great quarterback but the Cincinnati offensive line is making life difficult on the offense. Burrow has no time to throw and Joe Mixon has nowhere to run. The Ravens defense is not a great unit, but their offense will carry the proverbial water this week in an easy win and cover for the Ravens. Pick: Ravens
LVR @ KC -7: The Chiefs have LIVED in primetime so far this year and will play their third primetime game in 5 weeks on Monday Night Football. I can’t get enough of it. Patrick Mahomes is just different than anyone else playing football right now and is so fun to watch. He gets a Raiders team that loves to turn the ball over and generally underwhelm, in Arrowhead, on Monday Night Football, and will basically end the Las Vegas’ season on national TV. 7-point spreads generally give me the “damn, that’s a lot of points,” but I have no confidence in the Raiders, and I think the Chiefs found their mojo last week. Pick: Chiefs
There they are. I hope these are a bit better than last weeks picks!
