Last week was a ROUGH week for me in the picks department going 7-8-1. The write-up was spectacular, as always, but I would have had better luck flipping a coin than I did using my 30-something years of football-watching intuition.
LAC @ HOU + 5.5: Are the Chargers the same ole team again this year? They had what we thought was a good win in Week 1 against a Raiders team that, thus far, has been a huge fraud, then hung with the Chiefs in Week 2 before getting BLOWN THE FUCK OUT by the Jags last week. The Texans are a “pesky” team that has been in every game they’ve played but has yet to win one, although they do have a tie. Herbert is obviously hurt for the Chargers, although another week of rest should help, and the Texans lack any transcendent players. Give me the Chargers in a “get right” win that will look very similar to the Bengals victory over the Jets last week. Pick: Chargers
SEA @ DET -4.5: I’m in on the Lions. Jarred Goff is slingin’ it all over the yard and finally looks like the QB the Rams thought they had. The Seahawks stink. Geno Smith is just a guy, and you can’t win in the NFL with just a guy under center. The Lions defense gives up points in droves, but they’ve also played all three games indoors for whatever that’s worth. This game will be borderline ugly to watch but I’ll take the Lions. They’ve shown they can consistently score whereas Seattle…has not. Pick: Lions
NYJ @ PIT -3.5: All signs point to the MILF Hunter himself, Zach Wilson, being back for the Jets which adds another dimension to their offense. Sure, he throws a lot of interceptions, but so does Joe Flacco who filled in for Wilson to start the season. Pittsburgh is adamant about sticking with Trubisky which, to me, seems more like a sign that Kenny Pickett is not ready as opposed to actually believing in Mitch. This will surely be painful to watch, but it’s a 1:00 game so nobody actually has to watch it. I’ll take the Jets to cover. I’m not sure they will win, but I think they’ll cover. Pick: Jets
TEN @ IND -3.5: This game is the spiderman meme. These teams are the same. Massive underachievers thus far, veteran game managers at quarterback and both have a running back as their best player. Indy is getting the customary 3 points for being at home, and, I assume, the extra half point for beating the Chiefs last week (who actually beat themselves). I dislike Matt Ryan slightly less than I dislike Ryan Tannehill, but not 3.5 points more. I think the Titans cover. Pick: Titans
BUF @ BAL +3: This is the best game on the schedule this week and since the Patriots are playing at 4:25, we’ll actually get to watch this in the Boston market. I spent a lot of time singing Lamar’s praises last week when he carved up the Patriots, but it bears repeating here. He’s playing the best ball of his career and actually looks like a competent passer this year. Scarry stuff for opposing defenses. Speaking of defenses, the Bills defense is no joke giving up 7, 10, and 21 points over the first three weeks to the defending champs, last year’s #1 seed in the AFC and the only undefeated team in the AFC this year respectively. This is set up to be an *insert football cliche* game. Buffalo will come in pissed off about last week’s loss to the surprising Dolphins while the Ravens will look to keep it rolling after having righted the ship after their own tough loss to Miami. As much as I like the Ravens, I can’t see Josh Allen and Co. being kept in check 2 weeks in a row, so I’m going with the Bills to cover in a relatively high-scoring game. I will say, though, if the Ravens win this game, especially if they look really good in doing so, they should be the Super Bowl favorites until further notice. Pick: Bills
DEN @ LVR -2.5: Let’s call this the “What the FUCK Has Gone Wrong Bowl”. Both of these AFC West teams came into the season with playoff, and dare I say Super Bowl, aspirations. Vegas is winless, and despite entering with a 2-1 record, the Broncos have looked like shit notching their two wins against the “pesky” Texans and a Jimmy G lead 49ers team. Vegas has to notch one in the win column this week, right? I’ll take the Raiders in what is ostensibly a must-win game in Week 4. I actually think the Raiders will win this comfortably, but both teams have looked so poor thus far that I’d stay far away from this one with my money. Pick: Raiders
MIN @ NO +3: The Vikings are frustrating. They looked great in Week 1 beating up on the rival Packers, but then got smoked by the Eagles in Week 2 and survived the Lions last week. Their offense is full of playmakers but outside of Justin Jefferson going off in Week 1, Dalvin cook and Jefferson have been really quiet. The Saints, on the other hand, are in NFL purgatory. Good enough to beat truly bad teams and end the season with a draft pick in the low-teens, but nowhere near good enough to truly compete. Their quarterback also loves turning the ball over. I’ll take Kirk Cousins (it stings just typing that) over Jamis Winston any day, so give me the Vikings covering on the road. Pick: Vikings
CHI @ NYG -3: The air came out of the Brian Daboll balloon in a hurry last week, huh? After two “grind it out” wins against the Titans and Panthers, the Giants lost by a TD to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys. At home. On Monday Night. Not how they drew it up. The Bears also enter at 2-1 with wins over the 49ers in a monsoon and the Texans last week with a loss to the Packers mixed in. Justin Fields doesn’t look to have taken the proverbial year-two leap, but he’s also running for his life behind a suspect offensive line. Daniel Jones is what he is at this point. He’ll make some spectacular throws but will also find a way to fuck up the most routine plays. Both of these teams are “meh” and will probably end the season somewhere just south of .500, but after Sunday, one of them will be 3-1. I’ll go with the Bears since Justin Fields brings a dynamic run game to the table that Daniel Jones simply does not, and Chicago is also getting 3 points. Pick: Bears
JAX @ PHI -6.5: The Eagles are rolling, but so are the Jags. After a close loss to the Commanders in Week 1, the Jags are coming off two dominant games against the Colts and Chargers, both of whom were considered playoff contenders coming into the season. Trevor Lawerence is playing great and Travis Etienne looks to have recovered fully from the knee injury that cost him all of his rookie seasons. The game is in Philly, but the 6.5 points the Eagles are giving feels like a lot given the lackluster competition they’ve faced so far. The Eagles will probably win, but I think the Jags will cover given how Lawrence has been playing and the extra motivation Doug Pederson has going up against his former team for the first time. Pick: Jaguars
CLE @ ATL +1.5: Jacoby Brisett is the new Ryan Fitzpatrick. Been all over the league and performs admirably when thrust into action, which seems to be every other week. His counterpart, Marcus Mariotta, has been playing well for the Falcons this year, too. I think the Browns defense will simply be too much for Mariotta and the Falcons offense to handle, and Brissett will continue to keep Deshaun Watson’s seat warm and the Browns in the playoff hunt with a relatively easy win. Pick: Browns
WSH @ DAL -3: It feels weird typing this, but I like the Commanders chances this week because of Carson Wentz. Sure, he’ll probably shit his pants in November and December, but he’s playing decent football, for now. Both coaches are jackasses, so no advantage either way there. All that said, I think the Cowboys defense will be the difference-maker in this one forcing some of those patented Wentz turnovers. Pick: Dallas
ARI @ CAR -1.5: For the second week in a row, the Panthers are part of the “woof” matchup of the week. The Cardinals had a signature win against the Raiders in Week 2, but have looked terrible in their other two games. The Panthers beat the Saints last week in a game where Jamis Winston was the MVP for the Panthers despite playing on the other team. I think both Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield stink, but Kyler has a 10-cent head, so the advantage goes to Baker. Add in the cross-country trip and the terrible head coach for the Cardinals and this feels like a narrow cover for the Panthers. Pick: Panthers
NE @ GB -9.5: I did a full write-up on this game, but the cliff notes are “Brian Hoyer stinks and Aaron Rodgers does not.” Packers in a laugher. Pick: Packers
KC @ TB -1: Both of these teams lost last week, the difference is that the Chiefs beat themselves while the Bucs are straight up struggling. Brady gets Mike Evans back this week, but Godwin and Julio Jones are still out and the Tampa offensive line is in a world of hurt. It’s hard to say the Chiefs will get revenge for the Super Bowl they lost in this building to this team in a regular season game, but they will get back on track with an easy win. Pick: Chiefs
LAR @ SF -1.5: I love Jimmy G, but he looked like shit against the Broncos on the national stage last Sunday night. The Rams don’t appear to be the same team they were last year, but until Jimmy G shows he can still play the quarterback position with any sort of efficiency, I can’t pick the 49ers. These two teams are very familiar with each other so the 1.5-point spread makes sense, but I’m a bit surprised it’s the 49ers giving points in this one. I’ll take the Rams in a relatively easy win. Pick: Rams
