Last week felt good. The throwbacks, a rookie quarterback looking poised and confident under center, the defense pitching a shutout. All of it looked and felt about as good as one could have expected, so, coming off last week’s win against the Lions, I figured the Patriots would be 3-to-5-point favorites against the Browns in Cleveland. The Browns are 2-3 with their only wins coming against the Steelers (awful) and Panthers (just fired their coach). They are playing a journeyman backup quarterback with a penchant for turning the ball over at inopportune times. Their defense is bottom half in almost every category despite playing a soft schedule.
The Patriots are 3-point UNDERDOGS. Surprising. That’s a reality check that I didn’t know I needed and one I’m sure one Belichick will use to his advantage all week while preparing for the Browns.
At the end of the day, the Patriots and Browns are both 2-3, playing with backup quarterbacks, and without a win against a “good” team in 2022. Sure, the Patriots looked dominant against the Lions last week, but Detroit did everything in its power to lose the game while the Patriots offense only scored 1 TD, and settled for field goals all game long. The Browns, however, are coming off a loss to the Chargers that saw them blow another big lead (14-0) just as they did in Week 2 against the Joe Flacco-lead Jets (30-17 with 1:55 left in the FOURTH QUARTER). To me, it feels like the patriots are ascending while the Browns are…well, the Browns, but the 3-point spread says otherwise.
Let’s get into it.
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense: The Patriots offense has not exactly lit it up this year, as a whole, so far. The measly 7 points they scored against the Dolphins in Week 1 is still acting like an anchor on their points per game average which sits at 20.6. If you take out that dud, they’re averaging 24, which is 10th in the league. You can’t take out the Week 1 game because that’s not how averages work, but you get my point. Moreover, during the last two games that Zappe’s been playing, they’re averaging 26.5.
The Browns defense is 23rd in the league in points allowed per game, averaging 25. I’m no Rainman, but I think it’s reasonable to think the Patriots can get to about 25 points on Sunday if they play decently, and may be able to sniff 30 if they play well. How will they get there, you ask? Running the ball, probably. Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 160 last week and was ripping off 10-15 yard plays almost at will. The Browns have a great pass rush, but their front 7 is surrendering 138 yards per game on the ground, good for 28th in the league. The Patriots run game, conversely, is putting up…138 yards per game on the ground. Again, I’m no Einstein, but It sure seems like the Patriots will be able to move the ball on the ground.
I firmly expect the Patriots to be conservative, again, through the air with Zappe. He’ll probably have 20(ish) attempts, but I can’t see the Bill dialing up more than 1 or 2 downfield throws for the kid unless the Patriots are behind by 2 scores. The Browns are 14th in the league in pass defense which is 13 spots ahead of the Lions, against whom Zappe amassed only 188 yards on 21 attempts. If things go the Patriots way, Zappe will spend most of the afternoon handing the ball off, and I’m fine with that.
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense: This is a matchup the Patriots should win. Jacoby Brissett is the very definition of “just a guy.” A journeyman who’s on his 3rd team in 3 years who can keep his team in games, and the seat warm for the starter, when pressed into action, but he’ll never be mistaken for a game changer. Through the air thus far, Brissett has 5 scores and 3 interceptions leading the 24th-ranked passing offense in the NFL, one spot behind the Steelers and their enviable quarterback situation, and one spot ahead of the 49ers and Jimmy G. The Patriots are 11th against the pass and their new defensive backfield seems to be finding itself recently. I have no idea how advanced stats work with cornerbacks, but according to this tweet, rookie Jack Jones is the best cornerback in the NFL thus far, and veteran Jonathan Jones is third. Will the Patriots have two of the top 3 corners according to PFF after the season? Probably not, but their secondary play through 5 weeks has been pretty damn good.
The Browns, however, can run the ball. Nick Chubb is leading the NFL with 595 rushing yards, and the Cleveland rushing attack is number 1 in the league by a wide margin, gaining 192 yards a game which is 13 yards ahead of the second-place New York Giants. The Patriots rushing defense is 22nd in the league, giving up 128 per game, BUT Lamar Jackson racked up 117 of the 644 ground yards the Patriots have given up this year in Week 3. Those yards still count, but in the other 4 games they have played this year, the Patriots have allowed a grand total of 15 yards to opposing quarterbacks. Jackson is simply capable of doing things nobody else in the NFL can, so much so that he’s 9th in the league in rushing. If I bust out my calculator and take away 100 of Lamar’s Week 3 ground yards and then recalculate the Patriots rush yards allowed average, they check in at 108.8 YPG which would be 13th in the NFL. This is all a convoluted way of saying that I think the Patriots will be able to keep Chubb and Kareem Hunt in check this week.
The biggest advantage the Patriots have this week is their coaching. Specifically Bellichick. It still amazes me how many terrible coaches are in the NFL, and how consistently the vast majority of coaches crumble in crunch time. Kevin Stefanski is not a clown like Nathaniel Hackett or Dan Campbell, but he’s in the Pete Carroll, Brandon Staley, Josh McDaniels neighborhood. His team has blown two big leads this year, including the aforementioned 14-point lead with 1:55 left to the GODDAMN JETS in Week 2 and a 14-0 first-quarter lead last week to the Chargers. Good coaches don’t let that happen.
The last tidbit that bears mentioning is who each team has played so far this year. The Patriots played the Dolphins (with Tua), Steelers, Ravens, Packers, and Lions who are a combined 11-14. The Steelers have Played the Panthers, Jetts, Steelers, Falcons, and Chargers who are a combined 10-15. Not a huge difference in record, but, at the end of the year, I think the Packers and Ravens (almost certainly), and Dolphins (if Tua comes back) will be in the Playoffs while the only team the Browns have played that will make the playoffs is the Chargers, maybe. That doesn’t mean anything come kickoff on Sunday, but one team has “survived” a gauntlet to start the season to go 2-3 while the other had a cupcake schedule out of the gate and is still just 2-3.
I’ll take the Patriots to win outright. I don’t think they’ll win as easily as they did last week, but their defense seems to be rolling and Zappe is only getting more and more comfortable. Final score: 29-24 Patriots.