As a general rule of thumb, I’m not a big believer in “good losses” or any other way bad teams try to convince themselves that a game in which they in fact lost was actually something positive. Whether it’s my “City of Champions” arrogance that comes along with watching your teams win 12 championships and participate in 19 Super Bowls/World Series/NBA Finals/Stanley Cup Finals in 21 years or just a side effect that comes along with entering middle age, I don’t believe any loss is good, therefore there’s no such thing as a “good loss.”
But this was damn close.
Going into this, I thought the Patriots were going to get destroyed on national TV in the “Game of the Week” or whatever bullshit branding CBS sticks on the 4:25 game that goes out to most of the country. Everything was stacking up against the Patriots in this one. They were on the road in one of the few stadiums that can actually get loud, their (theoretically) franchise quarterback (more on this later) didn’t make the trip due to a leg injury, and the Packers defense seems to be elite. Oh yeah, and that dude Aaron Rodgers is no chump. 31-3 was on the table.
Not only did the Patriots not get demolished, they pushed a Packers team that is a legitimate Super Bowl contender to the brink and proved to themselves and to everyone else watching that they are not ready to roll over.
Let’s look at the three sides of the ball.
Bailey Fucking Zappe. Welcome to the National Football League. When news came out that Mac Jones was out and that Brian Hoyer was going to get the start, I think we all rolled our eyes and figured this offense that looked, at times, dynamic with Mac, would instead lean heavily on the run with short passes and screens being most of the passing game. The Patriots got the ball to start the game and things looked just about the way we thought they would. Run, run, run, short pass, run run run, take a shot down the field, run run, field goal. Not exciting but the two-headed monster of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson is more than capable of leading a ball-control offense that’s looking to chew the clock as much as it is to score.
Then, on 3rd and 10 from the Packers 37-yard line, Mo Lewis hit Drew Bledsoe high and hard knocking him out of the game Rashan Gray sacked Hoyer, pushing the Patriots out of field goal range and forcing a punt. More importantly, though, it knocked Hoyer out of the game and opened the door for Bailey Zappe. The kid looked a bit flustered in his first drive, but I’ll go ahead and give him a pass on that given the circumstances. In fact, I’m borderline shocked the kid was even able to stand up and take a snap with all the adrenaline/stress he must have been going through. Anyways, after the quarterback change, the Patriots stuck with their running game. Harris and Stevenson combined for 32 carries with Bourne adding one carry for 15 yards while Patriot quarterbacks only threw it 21 times. But things looked and felt different with Zappe under center once he had a minute to gain his composure. The “breath holding” that naturally comes with every Brian Hoyer dropback was gone and was replaced with a “let the kid chuck it” mentality (at least at my house).
Ultimately the Patriots offense scored 17 points against a stout Packers defense with two fantastic TD drives orchestrated by Zappe. He only had 99 yards on the day on 10/15 passing but did have a few big-time throws and was also the victim of a Nelson Aghalor drop and some almost over-the-top conservative playcalling. Wil Zappe prove to be a worthy backup while we wait for Mac to get healthy, or potentially take a run at Mac’s job? Who knows. I assume he’ll start this week against a Detroit team that plays defense like YMCA pickup basketball, so we’ll get to see what he looks like with a full week of preparation as the starter against a porous defense. The kid made a great first impression yesterday, though. Offense Grade: C
The defense played well yesterday. Full stop. They had a pick-6, forced a fumble, and were able to get off the field on third down in some big situations. But, and there always seems to be a but, they still gave up 27 points, 443 yards, and 24 first downs in (70 minutes to be fair). Jaylen Mills and Lawrence Guy didn’t make the trip due to injuries, so they were down their perceived top corner and a rotational defensive linemen, but their undoing yesterday was fatigue and scheme, not talent. The aforementioned run-heavy attack the Patriots deployed on offense meant the defense was out there a lot, and the more cracks Aaron Rodgers gets, the harder it is to keep him off the board or even in check.
The first half was beyond good for the defense. It was great. They were getting consistent pressure on Rodgers and were able to limit Dillon and Jones on the ground. Jack Jones forced a fumble and had a pick-6 inside the last minute of the first half to give the Patriots a 10-7 halftime lead, but the Packers got the ball to start the third quarter, Aaron Rodgers converted a 3rd and 10 on their first series, then proceeded to drive it right down the Patriots throat to take a 14-10 lead. Not exactly how they drew it up at halftime.
In the second half, they gave up a touchdown, a field goal, and a touchdown on the first three Packer drives, but then were able to force punts on the last possession of the 4th quarter and Green Bay’s first possession of overtime. It was frustrating to see them be unable to hold onto a lead, but when they had to have it in crunch time, they were able to get stops which is nice to see. I don’t think it’s fair to ask any defense to hold Aaron Rodgers and that offense scoreless time after time, but with the offensive strategy Bill chose to go with, that was the ask, and the defense finally cracked in OT giving up a field goal as time expired. Defense Grade: C
Then there is the coaching. I understand that Zappe is probably playing with a limited playbook, and you want to protect the rookie, but that doesn’t excuse the super-conservative playcalling. When they got the ball back with 1:52 left in the game in the shadow of their own endzone they ran the ball three times and punted, pushing the game into overtime. Understandable given the circumstances, but by not even trying to move the ball, you are fully guaranteeing that Aaron Rodgers will get the ball with a chance to win it.
Taking it a step further, the Patriots got the ball back with the score tied at 24 with 6:14 left in the 4th quarter and went 3-and-out with a 9-yard sack on second down putting the nail in that drive. After a Packers punt, they got it back in with 1:52 left and went 3-and-out again with 3 runs. Then in overtime, after another punt from the Packers, and starting with the ball at their own 49, they ran on first and second down setting up a 3rd and 5 pass play that didn’t connect so they punted again. From the Green Bay 46. Resulting in a net of just 36 yards. In a tie game, with Aaron Rodgers standing on the other sideline, they played ultra-conservative football both in terms of offensive playcalling and strategy. They played to extend the game, not to win, and I think that’s a terrible way to play. I’d understand it more if they were hanging on to a small lead, but you fundamentally can’t win without another score in this situation, and the conservative play calling all but eliminated any chance of the Patriots scoring. Three times in a row they basically handed the ball to Rogers and hoped the Packers offense would make a third game-changing mistake to lose instead of trying to win. That makes no sense to me. Coaching Grade: D+
This Patriots team is 1-3 for the second year in a row, and sitting alone in last place in the AFC East for the first time since 2000. The schedule gets a bit easier over the next month, starting with the Lions and their surprisingly efficient offense, this week at home.
Last week we prayed that Mac was not too hurt to play. This week, we pray that Zappe does in fact start this week and we don’t ever have to see Brian Hoyer play meaningful football ever again.