Before we get into this, I’d like to take a minute to acknowledge that the “Pat the Patriot” uniforms the Patriots will be wearing this week are absolutely phenomenal. Kraft is on record saying they will never go back to the old logo full-time since, you know, they have won six Super Bowls wearing the new logo and generally sucked wearing the old ones, but they should absolutely be in the rotation multiple times every season.
Anyways. This is going to be a lot shorter than my usual writeups for two reasons. First, I have absolutely no idea what to expect from the Patriots offense with Bailey Zappe playing quarterback, and second, the Lions offense will be missing their lead back, D’Andre Swift, and their best receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown. I’ll still take a stab at it, but those are major variables that I’m not sure how to account for.
Patriots Offense vs Lions Defense: The Lions defense stinks. They have given up 37, 27, 28, and 48 points to the Eagles, Commanders, Vikings, and Seahawks respectively thus far. Jaylen Hurts seems to be legit this year but the other three quarterbacks they’ve faced, Wentz, Cousins, and Geno Fucking Smith, are not and still had their way with the Detroit defense. If a healthy Mac Jones was playing this week, The Patriots would hang 50 points on this defense the way they did against the Jets and Browns last year.
But Michael McCorkle Jones is not going to play this week and rookie Bailey Zappe will be making his first career NFL start. All summer we heard that the Western Kentucky product had a great arm and could sling it, but I can’t imagine the Patriots coaching staff will give him the chance to air it out this week given the circumstances. That means we’ll get a solid dose of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson all day on Sunday. The Lions defense is giving up 165 rushing yards per game this year, good for 30th in the NFL while the 10th-ranked Patriots rushing attack is averaging 128 yards per game. I’m no NFL coach, but that seems like an obvious mismatch.
“What if the Patriots choose to zag when everyone expects them to zig and decide to throw the ball on Sunday?” you ask. Well, the Lions are also 30th in the league in passing yards allowed, surrendering 279 per contest so there’s ample opportunity through the air against this team, too. Now, I don’t think Bill will dial up a ton of down-the-field passes, but I won’t dismiss the possibility of some “safe” throws (like rollouts with one receiver running a rout or dig routs at the sticks) being part of the game plan. If Mac is going to miss a few more weeks, the Patriots will have to throw the ball at some point to win, so the more I think about it the more I think we’ll see Zappe throw it around a bit this week.
The Patriots should be able to move the ball and score a bit this week, but I don’t think they’ll reach 30 points.
Lions Offense vs Patriots Defense: Detroit can score. They are #1 in the NFL in points per game at 35, almost three points clear of the second-place Chiefs who score 32.5 per contest. The problem in Detroit, and a big part of the reason they’ve scored so many points, is that they’re constantly playing catchup since their defense gives up a league-worst 35.3 points per game which is seven points clear of the 31st-ranked Seahawks who give up 28.8. Ironically, the Lions played the Seahawks last week in a battle of defensive futility. The final score was 48-45, Seahawks.
The Patriots defense is ranked 22nd in points per game at 25.5 but that number includes a Miami scoop-and-score on a Mac Jones fumble and a Justin Tucker field goal after a Mac interception that saw the Ravens gain no yards offensively before kicking the field goal. If you take out those 10 points, the Patriots defense would average 22 points per game, which would put them at 15th. I know the points allowed number includes defensive scores for every team, and turnovers are part of the game, but it seems relevant.
Anyways. The Patriots should be able to keep the Lions offense contained. As mentioned above, I don’t think the Patriots will run the kind of offense that would build them a big lead and force the Lions to throw it all over the yard as they’ve done in weeks past. prevent defenses, by design, give up yards at an alarming clip and the Lions have faced a ton of prevent this year. Add in the injuries to the Lions top receiver and running back, as well as the Jarrod Goff factor and I think the Patriots defense can keep the Lions in check.
Earlier this week I choose the Lions to cover the 3 points they’re getting in this one, but I’m going to reverse course here. After doing my proverbial “research” and seeing just how many points and yards (444.8, last in the league and almost 100 more than the 346.8 the 19th-ranked Patriots surrender) the Lions allow weekly I can’t imagine the Patriots being suffocated enough to lose this one. Their running game is strong and will help Zappe navigate his first start against a garbage defense. I don’t think the Patriots will completely suffocate the Lions offense, but they also won’t give up 30+. I’m going with the Patriots to cover in a pick that has less to do with my confidence in Bill and the coaching staff figuring it out with Zappe and more to do with how historically bad the Lions defense is and the key injuries they have on offense. Pick: Patriots
