The older I get, the more I resent change. I was 8 when the Wild Card was first introduced in 1995, so the 4-team per league playoff format is the first one I truly remember and is my default baseline. Baseball is unique among North American professional sports in that the regular season is long as hell and means a whole lot. For almost two decades, the NHL and NBA had twice as many teams make the playoffs (8 per league) than MLB did, but their regular seasons were exactly half the length of the baseball season so it worked. I had no real issue when the extra wild card team in each league was introduced in 2012 since the one-game play-in was a great way to kick off the postseason, and still put a ton of emphasis on the 162-game regular season.
Now 6 teams in each league make the postseason, the Wild Card round is a best 2-out-of-3, and the top 2 seeds in each conference get bye’s through the first round. I think we’ve gone too far. I understand that more playoff games mean more money for everyone (players included) and the expanded postseason format means that more teams are “in it” for longer, which is fun for more fanbases (and also means more money for the owners and players), but at a certain point, it’s hard to justify playing 162 games if the 86-win Tampa Bay Rays and the 87-win Philadelphia Phillies are playoff teams. Also, as you’ll see below, I think all 4 teams that won the wild card series are going to be dismissed in short order this round.
On to the picks.
Guardians (6) vs Yankees (2): Shane Bieber looked unhittable in Game 1 against the Rays, but Tampa Bay had limped into the playoffs after getting swept in their last three games against the 76-84 Red Sox. It was still an impressive performance but the Yankees are a huge step up in weight class. Triston McKenzie was equally as dominant in Game 2, but had long since exited when the outcome of the game was finally decided in 15 innings, which brings me to my next point. The Guardians scored 3 runs in their 2-game wild card sweep of the Rays. Three. Their pitching was about as good as can be, but their offense was objectively terrible.
The Yankees won 99 games and probably would have won 105 or so if 1) their postseason seeding was all but set by mid-September and 2) the Aaron Judge chase for 62 home runs wasn’t hanging around this team for the last month of the regular season. The Yankees can pitch (3.31 team ERA, 2nd in AL) and hit (807 runs, 1st in AL) at an elite level. Their bullpen has been a bit of a question mark over the last few months of the season, but they figured out a way to win 99 games in the gauntlet that is the AL East, while also finishing 1st and 2nd in the AL in hitting and pitching.
I don’t think the Guardians will get swept, as Bieber or McKenzie will probably steal a game, but the Yankees are deep, and there is a sense of “now or never” in that clubhouse. Boon will be fired if they don’t win this series, at least, and Judge is a free agent who has indicated he’s holding out for the most money. LeMahieu is getting older and has battled injuries, Rizzo will turn 34 next year, and Garrett Cole has a lot of miles on that right arm. The Yankees won’t stink next year regardless of how this series and their offseason play out, but this feels like their best chance to get a ring, and I can’t see the Guardians being the team that knocks them out. That comes next round. Pick: Yankees
Mariners (5) vs Astros (4): Hand up, I did not see the Mariners sweeping the Blue Jays, especially in Toronto. Luis Castillo is a stud and Robbie Ray, despite his rough outing against the Blue Jays in Game 2, is a top-of-the-rotation starter. Hell, the man won the Cy Young last year. As I mentioned in the Wild Card preview blog, I haven’t watched much Mariners baseball this year, but I was impressed by the team and their makeup in the Wild Card round.
But the Astros are the Boogieman. They have been to 5-straight ALCS’ and 3 of the last 5 World Series. They are playoff tested and, much like the Yankees, have a bit of a “now or never” feeling, with the difference being that this group did win a World Series in 2017. Father time is catching up with the Astros as well with Altuve turning 33 next year and Justin Verlander will be 40 when spring training rolls around. Much of their core is still relatively young and controllable, but playing deep into the postseason year after year adds miles to the arms of pitchers like Lance McCullers. They are not facing the same “win now” pressure as the Yankees are, but they are feeling some.
The Astros won 106 games and are as battle tested as any team we’ve seen in a long time. They also went 12-7 against the Mariners this year. Pick: Astros
Phillies (6) vs Braves (2): The Braves are a wagon. They won 101 games and stomped out the Mets on the final weekend of the season to snag 1st place and a bye. They can pitch, and my god can they hit. They have all the confidence in the world coming off last season’s championship and only seem to have gotten stronger.
The Phillies squeaked into the playoffs on the backs of a solid offense and serviceable starting pitching. In the Wild Card round, they took care of the Cardinals in 2 games, which included a 9th-inning comeback in Game 1 and a wire-to-wire 2-0 win in game 1.
This seems like a mismatch on paper even though the regular season series was relatively close with the Braves taking the series 11-8. The Phillies will probably take the first game in Philadelphia but lose in 4. Pick: Braves
Padres (5) vs Dodgers (1): I think this will be a little closer than most, but the Dodgers are just too much. Los Angeles won the season series against the Padres 14-5 and I don’t see a way the Padres can win 3 games before the Dodgers do, especially with the series opening n LA. Pick: Dodgers
