Just like that we’re at the quarter-pole of the NFL season and we get a good game tonight on Thursday Night Football to kick things off with the Dolphins traveling to Cincinnati to play the Bengals.
Thursday night games are usually sloppy, low-scoring affairs given the short amount of rest and recovery time between the previous Sunday’s action and the Thursday nighter. Luckily for the Bengals, their whole season has looked like a Thursday night game so they will feel right at home. Seriously. They started 0-2 with losses against the Mitch Trubisky-lead Steelers and the Cooper Rush-lead Cowboys scoring 23 and 17 points respectively. They did beat the Jets last week, but that only counts for a half-win, at least according to the Boston sports media whenever the Patriots beat up on them.
The Dolphins, sitting at an impressive 3-0, are coming off a phenomenal win last week against a Buffalo team that’s in “Super Bowl or bust” mode this year. All three of their wins thus far have been impressive. They barely broke a sweat beating the Patriots in Week 1, battled back from a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to beat Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 2 before last week’s statement win against the Bills.
If someone told you before the season started that, going into this game, one team would be 3-0 with all the momentum in the world and the other would be limping in at 1-2, nobody would have picked the Dolphins to be the undefeated team, but here we are.
Tua is battling back and ankle injuries (definitely not a concussion, just ask the Dolphins) and is listed as questionable but everything I’ve seen points to him playing. He’s not alone on the Dolphins injury report, but that’s not all that uncommon for Thursday games. Officially, teams have to give a reason when holding someone out of practice, and with only 3 days between games, many organizations like to give key players and veterans the (short) week off from practice when playing on Thursday night.
The Bengals have their fair share of players on the injury report with Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins highlighting that group, although both were full participants in practice on Tuesday and Wednesday.
So how do I see this game playing out? I have absolutely no idea. I refuse to believe the Bengals are as bad as they showed in the first two weeks of the season, and even if Miami is as good as they’ve shown, a hobbled quarterback playing on a short week is not going to help their cause. The Bengals are giving 4 points which one must think is a reflection of both confidence in the Bengals ability to build on last week’s win and concern for Tua’s ability to play at the level he has through the first three weeks.
The interesting thing from a gambling perspective is the over/under being set at 48.5 which is the second highest o/u of the week trailing only the Bills vs Ravens which is set at 51. As mentioned above, Thursday games are usually pretty sloppy and low scoring, so seeing the second highest o/u of the week being the Thursday game is odd. The concern surrounding Tua’s injury that has pushed the line to CIN -4 doesn’t seem to be reflected in the o/u.
I’ll take the Bengals to cover in this one due to the game being played in Cincinnati and the fact that this team showed signs of being their old self last week. Their offensive line is also getting more and more playing time together under their belt so one would think their performance should improve, even if just incrementally, against a defensive line that’s just three days removed from a hard-fought game against the Bills.
The bet I’m more confident in, though, is the under. I just can’t see these two combining for almost 50 points tonight given all the concerns outlined above. I’d stay away from the spread if I was betting my own money, but I’d be confident putting some money on the under.
Pick: Bengals and the Under
