This week, and moving forward, I’ll be using the spreads posted on The Score.
BAL @ NE +3: Full preview here. Pick: Patriots
HOU @ CHI -3: The winless Texans have tied the Colts and lost a low-scoring, defense-dominated game against Denver. The Bears beat the 49ers in a monsoon week 1 that, quite frankly, told us nothing about either team, then lost to arch nemesis Aaron Rodgers last week in a game in which they struggled to move the ball (212 total yards) and score (10 points). This battle of second-year quarterbacks figures to be low scoring with one explosive play likely to be the difference. I’ll give the nod to the Bears as their quarterback can make an explosive play singlehandedly while Davis Mills can’t. Pick: Bears
PHI @ WAS +6.5: I’ll keep this simple. Jaylen Hurts and the Eagles look to be a legit Super Bowl contender. Any time a legit contender gets to play the dysfunctional Redskings Football Team Commanders and/or Carson Wentz, I’m taking the contender. Pick: Eagles
CIN @ NYJ +6: One has to think the Bengals will FINALLY notch one in the win collum this week. The Jets had an emotional last-minute win against the Browns last week so they’re riding high, but Cincy is the better team here despite their early struggles. I’ll take Burrow, Chase, and Mixon over Joe Flacco and literally anybody. The Jets used an entire season’s worth of good breaks and luck last week and will crash back down to earth his week. Pick: Bengals
JAX @ LAC -7: The Chargers have played two playoff teams thus far, splitting their first two games against Las Vegas (win) and the Chiefs (loss). The Jaguars smacked the shit out of a Colts team that sure looks like they’ll be picking in the top 10 of the draft through two weeks and lost to the Commanders in a quasi-shootout in Week 1. The Chargers enter this week off the mini-bye that comes along with playing on Thursday Night Football, and the Jaguars have to fly cross-country, so the deck seems to be stacked in the Chargers favor despite the Herbert injury and how the Jags have looked so far. I’m taking the Chargers to cover, but I do think the Jags will hang around through 3 quarters. Pick: Chargers
Sunday Morning Update: The news around Herbert is not good. He’ll decide in pregame warmups if he 1) can play and 2) if he needs an injection. The line has moved from LAC -7 to LAC -3 since I wrote this blog on Friday, the only line that moved more than a half-point. This is another game I’d stay the hell away from if I was gambling real money. I’ll stick with the Charger but this game is one to watch, not bet on.
LAR @ AZ +3.5: Talk about two teams who come into this game with entirely different feelings after their Week 2 wins. The Rams almost blew a huge lead to the Falcons while the Cardinals staged an epic comeback to win in OT against the Raiders in Las Vegas last week. None of that matters. The last time we saw these two play was the Wild Card round of the playoffs last year and the Cardinals didn’t look like they belonged on the same field as the Rams. The trend continues. The rams win this by a touchdown despite a few “holy shit” plays from Kyler. Pick: Rams
DET @ MIN -6: The Vikings rolled over and got trounced by the Eagles on Monday Night calling into question how sustainable their dominant Week 1 performance against Green Bay is. The 1-1 Lions have scored 35 and 36 points in the first two weeks of the season against the Eagles and Commanders. Their Defense has also given up 38 and 27 points. I wouldn’t touch this game if I was putting real money on it, but I’ll take Jarrod Goff and the…high-flying…Lions offense against Kirk Cousins. This game figures to be high scoring, but I don’t see the Vikings covering the 6 points. Pick: Detroit
NO @ CAR +2.5: I’m starting something called the “woof” matchup of the week. I’ll award it to the worst game on the schedule, and this one takes the cake for Week 3. Jameis Winston, who is a mixed bag when healthy, is playing hurt. Baker Mayfield plays QB for the Panthers. This game is going to be filled with 3-and-outs and mind-numbingly bad turnovers. I’ll take the Saints to cover, but that’s more of an indictment of how terrible I think the Panthers organization is from top to bottom, not because of my confidence in the Saints. Pick: Saints
KC @ IND +5.5: The Colts got SHUT OUT last week by the Jaguars with Jonathan Taylor only getting 9 carries for 54 yards. Unacceptable (also, RIP to my fantasy team). The Chiefs look to be their usual wagon. Give me the Chiefs by about 20. Pick: Chiefs
BUF @ MIA +6: This is what the old timers call a “measuring stick” game for the Dolphins. Both teams come in at 2-2, but the Dolphins being 6-point underdogs at home tells you everything you need to know. The Bills are on a straight-up march to the Super Bowl. They beat the bag out of the defending champion Rams to open the season and won in a laugher on Monday Night against the Titans with Josh Allen wearing a baseball cap for the majority of the second half. More of the same this week. In fact, I’ll be picking the Bills to cover any spread this year that’s under 2 TDs, and even then, it’ll be on a case-by-case basis. Pick: Bills
LVR @ TEN +2: This game will be interesting. Both teams came into the season with playoff aspirations. The Titans were the #1 seed without Derrick Henry last year and the Raiders made the playoffs before adding Davante Adams, Chandler Jones, and head coach Josh McDaniels. Both teams enter this matchup at 0-2, each suffering a last-second loss to seemingly inferior opponents from the NFC. Despite being 0-2, the Raiders have looked flawed but competitive, while the whole operation in Tennessee looks…off. In fact, it almost looks like the Titans “window” that may have never actually been open at all has closed. I’ll take the Raiders to win outright. Pick: Raiders
GB @ TB -1: It’s one thing to beat the Bears at home. It’s another to beat Brady in Tampa. I don’t care about Mike Evans being sidelined or the bullshit/drama/marital issues going on with Brady. Until Rodgers can beat Brady and the Bucs, I’m going with Tommy, ESPECIALLY when it’s a pick ’em. Pick: Bucs
Sunday Morning Updated. The Bucs are a mess on offense. Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is out and Julio Jones is questionable (go figure). Things are so bad for the Bucs receiving corps that Cole Beasley, who is 33 years old and just signed to the practice squad this week, has been activated. Losing his top three receivers will make the offensive line struggles more worrisome. I’m switching things up here and going with the Packers due to injuries. New Pick: Packers
ATL @ SEA -1: Atlanta is playing a west coast game for the second week in a row after coming up just short in their own 28-3 game against the Rams last week. They stayed on the west coast, practicing at the University of Washington all week, so take the travel component out of the equation. After upsetting the pedestrian Broncos in Week 1, the 1-1 Seahawks got stomped by Jimmy G and the 49ers last week while the Falcons enter this game at 0-2 despite two close games. Give me the Falcons getting into the win column for the first time and the Seahawks continuing their march towards a top-5 pick in the draft. Pick Falcons
SF @ Den +1: What’s old is new again, right? The Broncos have a decent defense and a seemingly inept offense while Jimmy G is under center for a 49ers team that has their sights set on the Super Bowl behind a solid defense and great run game. Coming into this season, things were supposed to be different for both teams, but here we are. I’ll take Jimmy and the painfully consistent 49ers in this one. Pick: 49ers
DAL @ NYG -.5: Two weeks and two wins for the Giants. I don’t think they’ll end up winning their division (hello, Jaylen Hurts), but I do think they will stick around in the wild card race for the majority of the season. The Cowboys are playing on the road for the first time this year with Cooper Rush, who played well last week against an out-of-sorts Bengals team, under center. This game is also a pick ’em, and I think the Brian Daboll magic the Gants have coupled with the Cowboys QB situation gives the Giants an edge. Pick: Giants
Results will be posted on Monday.