Until sports betting officially becomes legal in Massachusetts, I either have to drive to New Hampshire to place bets OR I can put them on a blog that nobody reads and keep track of my record throughout the year. Starting with Week 2 (I missed Thursday Night Football) I’ll predict each game against the spread. I’ll use the spreads from this tweet.
NYJ @ CLE -6½ – The Browns survived a weird one in Carolina last week against old friend player Baker Mayfield on a last-minute 58-yard field goal from Cade York. The Jets were blown out by the Ravens at home. In a meeting of what appears to be two below-average-to-bad teams playing backup quarterbacks, I’ll take the Browns to win but the Jets to cover. Pick: Jets
WAS @ DET -1 – Carson Wentz vs Jarrod Goff, on paper, is a matchup of objectively bad quarterbacks. Goff put up 35 points in a loss while Wentz put up 28 in a win. I ultimately give the edge to Goff, who has actually brought a team to a Super Bowl, and the Lions at home. The Lions win comfortably and easily cover the 1 point they are giving. Pick: Lions
TB @ NO +2½ – Tom Brady vs Jameis Winston. Give me Brady and the Bucs covering. New Orleans needed heroics to beat the Falcons, a team that will finish the season with 5 or 6 wins, last week while the Bucs defense suffocated an admittedly underwhelming Dallas team. Tommy and the Bucs win this by double digits. Pick: Buccaneers
CAR @ NYG -1 – A matchup of junk teams with incredible running backs. This is a game that will have serious fantasy implications but absolutely no playoff implications. I like the energy that Brian Daboll has brought to the Giants, so I’m taking them in a close, low-scoring and objectively boring game. Pick: Giants
NE @ PIT +2½ – I wrote a whole blog about this game here. Pick: Patriots
IND @ JAX +3 – Indy tied a Texans team with low expectations in Matt Ryan’s debut last week while the Jags were outdueled by Carson Wentz in Washington last week. I think Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are significantly better than they were last year under that douchebag Urban Meyer, but the Colts, looking to avenge a week 18 loss to the Jaguars that kept them out of the playoffs last year, will be just too much for them. Jonathan Taylor rolls and Matt Ryan plays a solid but unremarkable game to easily cover. Pick: Colts
MIA @ BAL -3½ – The Dolphins hung 20 on the Patriots last week, but that included a defensive score by a defense that kept Mac Jones and the Patriots in check to the tune of 7 points. The Ravens and a motivated Lamar are a different story. Baltimore will ride their Week 1 momentum to a sizeable victory. Pick: Ravens
ATL @ LAR -10 – Atlanta lost a close one on a great Saints 4th quarter comeback in their first game with Marcus Mariota under center. The Rams came out FLAT against the consensus Super Bowl favorite in a game that turned into a laugher late. I think water finds its level this week. Atlanta takes a huge step back and the Rams, who have finally put last season’s Super Bowl win in the rearview mirror, come out firing on all cylinders and easily cover. Pick: Rams
SEA @ SF -9½ – Is Trey Lance good? Is this version of Geno Smith a lot better than the one we remember in New York? I have no idea. What I do know is that Seattle beat their former QB in a great game on Monday Night, but did all of their scoring in the first half. Take away the adrenaline bump Seattle got playing Russ, and add in a clean playing surface for the 49ers (last week in Chicago was a mess) and what you get is an easy 49ers win. That said, I think Seattle covers in a game in which neither team reaches 25 points. Pick: Seattle
CIN @ DAL +7½ – The Cowboys came out and looked like trash last week WITH Dak under center. Joe Burrow shook off the rust against Pittsburgh in that ugly game last week. Cincy rolls here and the Burrow – Chase connection wins a lot of fantasy matchups this week. I’d take Cincy if the spread was 14.5. Pick: Bengals
HOU @ DEN -10 – A massive coaching blunder by Nathaniel Hackett in Russ’ return to Seattle is the kind of thing that’s hard for a team to forget. Mix in a surprising tie for Davis Mills and the Texans last week against a heavily favored Colts team, and this 10-point spread seems way too big. I think Denver is a field goal better than Houston. Add in 3 more for home field and 3 more on top of that for the elevation and that gets you to 9. I think Denver will win, but I don’t think they will cover. Pick: Texans
AZ @ LV -5½ – The Cardinals put in a film study clause in Kyler Murray’s contract this offseason which tells you all you need to know about that doofus of a singnal caller. The Raiders didn’t take care of the ball last week, a Derek Carr specialty, but still hung with a Chargers team that I really like. This week, at home, facing what looks like a 6-win Cardinals team is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Raiders. Add in the Kyler Murray Call of Duty stat, and what you get is a comfortable Raiders win. Side note, Kliff Kingsbury will be unemployed by Halloween. Pick: Raiders
CHI @ GB -10 – I’ll keep this short and sweet. Until the Bears actually beat Green Bay, I can’t pick against the Packers. I don’t think GB is as good as they have been, at least in the regular season, over the past few years, but the Lambeau faithful will see a comfortable Packers win today. Pick: Packers
TEN @ BUF -10 – The Bills will win this game. The only question is by how much. And the answer to that question comes down to which version of Ryan Tannehill we get on Monday Night. If he doesn’t turn the ball over and smartly hands it to Derrick Henry 20+ times, the Titans will cover in a low-scoring, clock-churning game. If he turns it over, the bills will hang 40 on Tennesee. I feel like Tannehill will play like shit under the bright lights against a vastly superior opponent. Pick: Bills
MIN @ PHI -2½ – The Eagles are a trendy pick in the NFC this year, but let Jarrod Goff hang 35 on them last week. The Vikings are significantly better than Detroit and are coming off a big win against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I like Kirk Cousins more than Jaylen hurts, so with all else being equal (offensive weapons and defenses), give me the Vikings outright. Pick: Vikings
Results will be posted on Monday afternoon on the home page above the Twitter feed (updated Tuesday) and I’ll keep a season-long tracker going there as well.
