Rick Patino once called sports talk radio in Boston “The Fellowship of the Miserable” and for the most part, I think he nailed it. During the Brady Years, the likes of Michael Felger and Glenn Ordway would complain the day after a Patriots win that they “didn’t win by enough” or their offense is “too reliant on Player X” while spending little to no time talking about what the team did right. But, out of all the negativity and overreaction spewed on sports talk radio (and the sports media in general) in Boston, my absolute favorite is the ole “Week 2 Must Win” which I heard a lot of this week. Hell, even Patriots honks like Zolak labeled this week’s game in Pittsburgh as such. I wouldn’t call this game a must win, but it’s a “would be really nice to have.”
Let’s set the stage.
As we all know, the Patriots are coming off an underwhelming performance in Miami that saw the offense score only 7 points despite amassing 271 yards (193 passing/78 rushing). They had some luck moving the ball, but a few timely stops by Miami’s defense coupled with too many self-inflicted wounds coming by way of terrible playcalling and god-awful turnovers sent the Patriots home on Air Kraft at 0-1 with plenty to work on.
The Steelers on the other hand played one of the most entertaining (and ugly) games in recent memory against the defending AFC Champion Bengals. Pittsburgh forced 5 takeaways and had sacked Joe Burrown 7 times in week one, but STILL need 70 minutes to escape with a 23-20 victory. The Bengals outgained the Steelers by 165 yards (432 to 267) and had almost three times as many first downs as Pittsburgh (32 to 13) despite those 5 turnovers. A week 1 win for the Steelers against the defending AFC Champs is a nice feather in the cap, but the box score tells a story of luck more than a story of a clean, hard-fought win.
Both teams played ugly in Week 1, but one did enough to win while the other…did not.
Let’s look at my unscientific analysis and predictions for the matchup.
Patriots Offense vs Pittsburgh’s Defense: Let’s face it, the Patirots offense hasn’t looked great in the preseason (remember how little we cared about that during the Brady Years) and Week 1 was no Mona Lisa, but when they ran an offense that looked like last year’s offense (that ended the season 6th in the NFL in points), they looked pretty good. Case and point, their first drive (before Mac’s INT that should have been pass interference). One has to think Bill and his merry band of asshat offensive coaches will dial up a lot more of that McDaniels offense this week that allows Mac to be at his best. Short passes, spread formations, quick throws, and checks at the line have been staples of the Patriots offense for over two decades and I firmly expect to see a lot more of that this week. We’ll probably still see a few too many of those ugly zone runs they have been forcing all preseason and in week 1 since it’s clear the coaching staff (with Bill’s blessing I assume) really want to add that to the arsenal, but for the most part I think we’ll see ole reliable this week.
Pittsburgh’s defense was dealt a huge blow during Overtime last week when reigning Defensive Player of the JJ Watt tore his pec, so the Pats catch a break not having to deal with him. The Steelers defense did pick off Burrow 4 times last week, but two of those were on Burrow (who missed a lot of camp and didn’t play at all in the preseason after getting his appendix taken out) and one was a strip sack that turned into an interception. I don’t think that’ll repeat itself this week, especially with Watt sidelined. The Steelers always play solid defense, and I don’t think the Patriots will light up the scoreboard, but their schemes look the same week in and week out, so Bill has a good idea of what they’ll see.
Patriots Defense vs Pittsburgh’s Offense: The Patriots defense played well last week. Miami did score 20 points, but 7 came on a scoop and score after a miscommunication on the Pats offensive line deep in their own end, meaning the Miami offense only scored 13 points. Their lone offensive touchdown came on a short pass at midfield to Jaylen Waddle (on 4th and 7) who broke a tackle and made Kyle Dugger miss on his way to the endzone. Other than that (which was awful), they held Miami to 2 field goals. Not great, but against a Miami team with a ton of offensive playmakers, that’s a good showing, IMHO.
The Steelers offense was laughably bad last week. Again, they were handed the ball by their defense 5 times following turnovers and only mustered 20 points in regulations. Mitch Trubisky is running a high school offense that looks completely lost at times with his one highlight last week came on a broken play in overtime. To his credit, he did enough to win, but overall he looked like the same Mitch Trubisky that Chicago sent packing 4 years after taking him 2nd overall in 2017. I think the Patriots will load the box to stop the run (Najee Harris is nursing an ankle) and play a lot of 2 high safeties with their corners playing off coverage this week. Bill will give Mitch all the short passes he wants, betting that his inaccuracy and poor decision-making will lead to a lot of punts and turnovers.
Prediction: Ultimately I like the Patriots in this one 24-10. The Patriots will go back to their bread and butter on offense and find some success against a JJ Watt-less Steelers Defense. The Patriots defense will frustrate Mitch, daring him to go off script and try to be a playmaker (which is when he’s at his worst) while forcing AT LEAST 2 turnovers.
Patirots win a Week 2 “must win,” and the blowhards on sports talk radio can take a week off from their doomsday takes.
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