He’s young and he can score, but his best quality is his ability to be noncommittal. His contract is basically the only storyline for the Bruins as they enter camp, yet it seems like we’re no closer to a conclusion in this saga on September 20th than we were when the B’s walked off the ice on May 14th after their game 7 defeat.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not much of a hockey guy, but as a sports fan, I’m exposed to enough hockey Bruins talk that I’m more than peripherally aware of the ongoing of the team. I probably watch 5-10 games a year during the regular season and every second of their playoff run, whether it be one series or a run to the Stanley Cup Finals. That’s all a long-winded way of backing up the statement made in the first sentence of this paragraph. Anyways.
David Pastrnak is a filthy puck handler and a hugely talented scorer. Offensively Pasta is the kind of guy any of the 31 NHL teams would love to roll out there 82 times a year. He does have his shortcomings, though. He plays defense like you see in pickup basketball games at the YMCA, and is about as tough as slow-cooked pork ribs. At 26 years old, he’s mostly a finished product and whatever improvements he may make before his 30th birthday won’t be sizeable enough to change the gist of my analysis.
So is he worth a top-of-the-market contract? Connor McDavid, who is a year younger than Pasta is making $12.5/year, but has two Heart Trophies in his trophy case and has four more top-five finishes along with three top-30 Selke finishes. Artemi Panarin is next in line at $11.6M/year with statistics far more in line with Pasta. Austin Matthews is third at 11.6M/year and just won the Heart Trophy in a year that he scored 60 goals. I think we can all agree that Pasta is not in that class.
Pasta is coming into the last year of his 6/year $40M contract he signed before the 17-18 season and is probably due for a raise, but there are complicating factors.
First, how much is he actually worth and how long should his next deal be? I don’t know enough about the ins and outs of hockey contracts, but I think something like $8M x 8 years seems fair, although if he (and his agent) see him more like McDavid and Matthews, that number won’t get it done.
The second compiling factor is whether he actually wants to stay in Boston. The core of the 13-19 team that lost two SCFs is either gone or well past their prime and, from all accounts, there’s not much coming up through the system. That alone makes signing Pasta to a long-term deal something the Bruins need to do at (almost) any cost, but Pasta has expressed trepidation at tying his horse to this franchise for the next decade or so based on their current trajectory. A very valid concern for a mid-20s player with an undoubtedly robust market for his services waiting for him after this season. This summer it was reported that he wanted to take a “let’s see” approach, play out this season, and become a free agent before making a decision, something that’s well within his rights. Not good if you’re Don Sweeney since players who reach UFA generally don’t resign with their club.
This week, though, as camp opens up, there are reports that Pasta now wants to resign with the Bruins. When asked if he wants to stay in Boston, he replied “Yeah of course.” Change of heat I guess.
He continued “This city is where I got the chance to become the player I am. …become the human being I am, and the Boston organization is an unbelievable part of that. So, I came here as a kid, and now I’m a man. So I’m extremely happy and a lot of great memories and I don’t know how many times I said I love it here and it’s an honor to wear this jersey.”
Do I believe it? Sort of. What probably happened was Don and Cam significantly upped their offer in the last few weeks and Pasta is doing a bit of preemptive spin control. Attempting to push the “I always wanted to be here and money wasn’t the only factor” narrative before the news of a massive deal hits the wire.
My prediction: 10 years for $90M and the deal is signed before the first game of the regular season.
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