The Patriots ground out a win in Pittsburgh last Sunday taking the possibility of an 0-4 start off the table (recap here). Yes, 1-3 is still a very real possibility with the high-powered Ravens offense coming to Gillette this Sunday for the home opener and a showdown with 2x reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers and the packers on the schedule for next Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. But even if the patriots finish the first quarter of the season (that 17th game really fucks up the easy NFL math we had for years) at 1-3, that feels a lot better than 0-4. Fight me.
The Ravens also enter this one at 1-1. They smacked the tar out of the Jets in week one to the tune of 24-9 in a ho-hum game. Last week they blew a 28-7 lead to the Dolphins and ended up losing 42-38. The Ravens Defense laid an egg in the 4th quarter, but Lamar played like an MVP all day compiling 437 yards (318 passing/119 rushing) and 5 total TDs. Say what you want about Lamar, that he’s a running back playing QB, or that “this” won’t last. All I know is that guy scares the SHIT out of me.
Both teams enter Sunday’s matchup at 1-1 with varying degrees of Super Bowl aspirations. The main difference between them is that the Patriots are in a division with the Buffalo Bills who look, in a word, unstoppable. Two weeks into the season and the Patriots are playing for a wildcard spot while the Ravens play in a wide-open, overall poor division with Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. Does any of that matter this week? Probably not, but it seems relevant.
On to the matchup on the field.
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense: The Patriots offense is uninspiring. Mac has only pushed the ball down the field a handful of times during their first two games, and two of those five(ish) throws have resulted in interceptions with a touchdown mixed in. Their passing game is made up of mostly crossers and outs between the linebackers and secondary. That’s not necessarily an indictment as Julian Edelman made a borderline Hall of Fame career out of sitting in that soft spot of the defense. The difference then was that the short stuff set up down-field shots which doesn’t seem to be a part of the offense in 2022. The offensive line, however, took a huge step forward last week in Pittsburgh against a top 10 front seven in the NFL. Mac wasn’t sacked at all, and Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson totaled 124 yards on the ground. I know they only scored 17 points last week, but that 6:33 drive to close out the game was a thing of beauty and was built on the back of the two-headed monster at running back and their offensive line.
The Ravens defense is average at best. They gave up 380 yards to the Jets in week one despite only giving up 9 points, and 547 yards and 42 points to the Dolphins last week, the same Dolphins team that only scored 13 offensive points against the Patriots in Week 1. In both of their games so far the Ravens have given up the vast majority of their yards through the air. Of the 927 yards their defense has allowed, 758 (81.7%) have come through the air while only giving up 84.5 rushing YPG. It’s worth noting that the Ravens jumped out to huge leads in both games so the Jets and Dolphins were forced to play catchup, which generally means abandoning the run, but it’s clear the Ravens pass defense is not great while the jury is still out on their rush defense.
This should, I repeat should be the week we see Mac throw the ball all over the field. The Patriots will always try to establish the run to keep the opposing defense honest, but the Ravens pass defense has been exploited thus far by two “meh” QB’s, so if Mac is who we think he is/can be, he needs to put up some solid numbers this week through the air. I see a final stat line for Mac somewhere around 22-35 for 280 yards and 2 scores with the Patriots putting up 27 points.
Patriots Defense vs Ravens Offense: Lamar Jackson is fun to watch…when he’s not playing your team. He can turn nothing into a 75-yard TD in a way I’ve never seen, Michael Vick included. He’s no Tom Brady when it comes to throwing the ball, but with all of the extra attention the defense has to place on keeping him contained, it seems like he always has a receiver running free 40-yards downfield who he can chuck it up to. The knock on Lamar’s passing is accuracy, not arm strength, so when a receiver gets behind the defense, he’ll put it on him.
The Patriots defense has been good-to-great so far. They gave up 307 yards to the Dolphins in Week 1, but only 65 on the ground which is even more impressive when you remember that the Dolphins had the lead for the whole game which usually means a heavy reliance on the run. Last week they gave up 243 yards to the Steelers with 91 coming on the ground for another solid showing. But neither Tua nor Mitch Trubisky has a skill set that holds a candle to Lamar, so you can throw a lot of those numbers into the Charles.
When you play these Ravens, you almost have to count on one wild Lamar play that results in a big TD. His athleticism is just soo good that he can turn a perfectly defended play into a 75-yard score. It’s going to happen and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. But limiting such plays to just one is the name of the game. The Patriots made a conscious decision to get faster in the second level of their defense this year specifically to defend against mobile quarterbacks like Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar, and this week will be a huge test to see if their offseason moves worked or not. I can’t see the Patriots keeping the Ravens in the teens, but I don’t think they’ll give up 30+.
Predictions: The Ravens are -2.5 which means Vegas sees this as a pick ’em given the 3-points the home team gets when calculating an opening spread, which seems pretty fair. This is the type of game I wouldn’t touch with my own money due to how many variables there are and how little we really know about each team through two weeks. That said, I think the Patriots will win by a field goal which means they will easily cover. The game will be played in the ’20s but the Patriots will prevail by a score somewhere around 27-21. Pick: Patriots
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